The Curse of Apollo
 

Siince 1882, no horse without a race at 2 has won the Kentucky Derby.

Not only that, we have the dosage angle against Audible.

We also have the dual qualifier angle.

Who doe's that leave?

Clearly, it’s Gronkowski.

He looks like a trash horse to me.

Take another guess.

Don't forget the Scat Daddy horses are 0-51 in the KD

Bolt?

No, Castellano got off him.

Mendelssohn is the answer.

Its not a curse. It just shows that racing experience still counts for something in this race. Do i think it will be broken some day? Yes. Horses are being held back until they are 3. Would i be all in on a favorite or second choice that has 3 or 4 races under their belt in the last couple of months?



No friggin way!

At short odds its a dumb bet. If I'm taking a shorter price in this race, its someone with a proven record. It hasn't happened for a long time for a reason. Curlin couldn't do it, and the trend brings more horses into the race this way............still hasn't been done. Its more than a curse, it proves that this race takes some seasoning to win. Taking a low price just gives people an excuse to call it a "Curse".

O for the last 60....Includes a couple of HOFers in Forego and Curlin.

Allan

Yeah, it's not a curse. It's been done before, albeit a looooooong time ago. :)

Good Magic? He also has the RAN sireline and Buckpasser-X. Trained by Chad Brown, a protege of the late great Bobby Frankel. What more could anyone ask for in a Derby contender?

At one point, Dossage was very strong in the Derby. Back when only a few horses met the requirements. Nowadays, most horse meet it and it no longer has the impact.

More and more horses are coming to the Derby with less and less foundation. It is harder for an unraced 2yo to beat "seasoned three year olds, but as we get less and less experience into our 3yos, the curse will disappear. It exists due to sound reasoning, not magic.

Only a few years ago, we were concerned with a 5 week layoff going into the Derby. Today, 5 weeks is a quick turnaround.

All of this is correct.

Basically all of the statistical "angles" on Derby starters are based on small samples of what is a changing race. Reliance on ANY of them is probably negative expected value over time.

Here's my brilliant idea on the Derby. Handicap it as any other horse race. Figure out who is coming in based on the best form, who will be favored by the pace scenario, who has been well prepared, who has a top trainer and/or jockey, etc.

The curse of Apollo will be broken, it almost got broken by Curlin a few years ago, and there's nothing special about a 3 year old stakes in May that requires that a horse race before an arbitrary date 4 months and a few days earlier.

For any stat or "curse" like these ones I always have to wonder how many Derbys should the non-raced two year-olds have won during that span? What was the public's perception of their total win probability as a whole?

A certain stat or angle may play at a 2 for 50 rate, but if the perception of the win probability of the group as a whole only totaled 225% then the group is performing to about what is expected of them.

The trouble with getting a large sample of Derbys is that the Derby is no longer the same race it was 10 years ago, 15 years ago.

Take what you have the last 33-4-5 years and go with that.
Ignore the stuff that goes back years and years.

The Derby is 1 race, and unlike almost all others - 20 starters, 3 year old going 10 for the first time ever. Winner profile changing/evolving quickly.

My two cent - focus on the UNDERCARD. That is where you can make some money.

We have a new Curse that is more recent than Apollo - the Curse of Meydan. ;)

Turf on the undercard is usually my bread and butter. Fingers crossed! And please no rain!