Are These Beyer Figures Correct?
 

https://s3.amazonaws.com/drf-live-pr...1ppBEL2599.pdf

If you look at the 4th race, examine the 1 horse, Elroi, and the 8 horse, Trainingforsucess. Not their last races that they ran, but check out theie next to last race; both of them ran within an hour apart at Aqueduct on April 19th.

Both horses won, Traininforsucess's final time was 11 ticks faster than Elroi's (that's 2 seconds and 1/5) yet his Beyer is ONLY 4 points higher? (80 vs. 76)

What kind of spread is this?

And keep in mind, on the Beyer scale, at that distance 1 length is approximately 1.7 points.

Doesn't take a math wizard to conclude something is amiss here.
And I looked at the replays of both races and the weather conditions were identical.

I even checked other sources (i.e. brisnet, predicteform) and they have a much larger spread for their final time figures, as expected.

This is not the first time I have seen this type of disparity among Beyer Figures.

I am not commenting on their accuracy, I'm making a statement on their reliability.

And before some of you intend on coming back with negative comments, saying "so-what", please do keep in mind that real money is wagered on thoroughbred races by a vast majority of handicappers that rely on these figures for the backbone of handicapping.


Would love to have CJ comment on this one.

Check to see if the slower race was at a higher class. I have seen this scenario myself more than a few times, and have said on this board that the Beyer Associates appear to be making some sort of class adjustment to their figures...but I doubt that anyone believes me.

There's nothing to believe or not believe....your statement is factually incorrect.

Like me, CJ wouldn't have to even check to know that obviously there was a huge disparity between the paces of the two races you are discussing.

Given that you don't even realize that Beyer Associates take pace into account in turf races ( certainly when one race goes three full seconds slower to the half ), I find it unbelievable that you would consider yourself even remotely qualified to comment on how they make their figures....even in internet fantasyland.

The silliness never ends.

And since when does Beyer incorporate pace into their figures?

I know that CJ and others do, but not even Ragozin or Thorograph dare to adjust their final figures due to a very rapid or very slow pace. They just indicate it with a special notation next to the final figure

I have seen sprint races where the winners were given identical Beyer figures even though their clockings were a second apart...and this on a dry track...and with the races separated by about an hour. And in every single case...the "classier" race is the one that has gotten the benefit of the doubt, Beyer-wise. Any idea why that is?

Or do you suppose I am making this whole thing up?

I've stated this here repeatedly in the past.

I think you make up most of what you post here.

For years.

And another thing, this race is actually one of the free races on the Timeformus site for tomorrow, and those two figures on a raw basis before any adjustments for pace, are identical.

So maybe a comment on this is warranted by CJ as well

Well this is the first time I have heard of this.

I wonder why this was never mentioned before by drf and/or Beyer himself

Is this so-called pace adjustment for just turf races or for all surfaces?

The funniest thing about the races/horses you are questioning is that they actually met the next time each raced...with Elroi ( the slower horse..with the higher Beyer ) finishing ahead of Trainingforsuccess ( the faster horse with the lower Beyer ).

Also, the 3rd finisher to El Roi, by the way, came back with a blowout, and very fast, win earlier this week.

Ah the webs some people weave.

You are absolutely right.

You are the only handicapper who seriously studies this game. How I wish I could be as good as you are, TLG. If only you could enlighen us by offering this board a little more than your usual sniper attacks.

Not all figures are truespeed figures, if the pace is slow enough, the final time is discarded and the figure you'll see is more of a 'class' figure something more akin to a RP or TimeformUK figure.

The sniper attacks on this board are by people who make things up to attack people like Beyer.

You seem like a really nice guy....who happens to also say some nutty things on this board. But, hey, there is a fine line between nutty and smart at the racetrack.

I like to think that I am a nice guy. It's a lot easier for me to be nice than to be perpetually argumentative. But I am also a serious student of this game...who doesn't mind voicing an opinion...no matter how unpopular it may be. My intention is to just share my gambling experiences...hoping that my advice might -- in some small way -- help other players have a less painful journey through this game than I've had.

I might also be the biggest fan of Andy Beyer that you are likely to find. And, in case you haven't noticed...I happen to be a big fan of yours as well. You are the only person for whom I'll raise the volume of my computer monitor...and I sincerely hope that you attain the level of success and fame that your knowledge and talent deserve.

But, hey...you might be right. Maybe I do say some nutty things on this board... :)