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-   -   The Bad Beat thread. (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=103720)

ManU918 11-11-2015 02:50 PM


Stillriledup 11-11-2015 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ManU918

Was paying 21 for 2 FYI.

Rough beat looked like the 6 had the 2 measured off, terrible bob.

ManU918 11-11-2015 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stillriledup
Was paying 21 for 2 FYI.

Rough beat looked like the 6 had the 2 measured off, terrible bob.

Disgusting... -$50 instead of +$475... Not sure how Hernandez doesn't get him home in that spot.

Stillriledup 11-11-2015 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ManU918
Disgusting... -$50 instead of +$475... Not sure how Hernandez doesn't get him home in that spot.


Almost seemed like he thought he had the inside horse measured and was paying attention to the horse on the outside.

parlay 11-11-2015 10:42 PM

GULF 7TH
 
i SWEAR THE :2: GOT 4TH. THE PHOTO WAS DARK AND I CANT SEE THE :2: NOSE. SUPER WOULD HAVE BEEN LARGE. HAD IT BOTH WAYS BUT WAS SURE IT WAS THE OTHER WAY

Kash$ 01-09-2016 05:09 PM

The stumble by Mr.Canada in the last race at Aqueduct cost EMD the pick 6

Last two legs he had were singles...Pick 6 was paying 47 grand.

azeri98 01-09-2016 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kash$
The stumble by Mr.Canada in the last race at Aqueduct cost EMD the pick 6

Last two legs he had were singles...Pick 6 was paying 47 grand.

geez that's brutal.

caper 01-10-2016 12:59 AM

This wasn't a horrible bad beat money size. Cost maybe a $100 or something. Might have been $200. It was the final leg of a pick three and I suspected the big favorite would go off-stride (harness racing). Well...... you can watch the rest.

The race is Nov.20th. Race 3.

http://www.westernfairdistrict.com/r...videos-replays

SuperPickle 01-10-2016 01:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kash$
The stumble by Mr.Canada in the last race at Aqueduct cost EMD the pick 6

Last two legs he had were singles...Pick 6 was paying 47 grand.

Please tell us he hedged his bet or did something. Found a quarter in the parking lot? Met a hot cocktail waitress?

Otherwise that's one that will keep you up.

EMD4ME 01-23-2016 12:44 AM

http://www.shrp.com/samhouston.asp

JAN 22, 2016 RACE 9.

Spent 4 days studying inside out, all replays for 2 years of every starter. Chart work, internal fractional study etc.

$200 to win on the 1. 15/1 closing odds.

$2.50 pick 5 to the 1 (all other 4 horses won, expected payout $5000)

$6 pick 4 to the 1 (all other 3 horses won, expected payout $1200)

$7 pick 3 closing to race 10 (that horse won). Expected payout $140

$5 pick 3 to close. Paying $400

$20 DD 1 with 1 (1 won race 10) was paying $128



Add it up. $3200

$6,250

$3600

$490

$1000

$1280

$15,820 grand total


OOPS. I forgot to add I had a $2 super 1524 (Paying $750 or so).

$16,570

It's not SO much the money. It's the work put into it. And MORA DECIDES for a second or 2, to try and come up the rail at the 3/16..... :bang: :bang:

If he angles out earlier, he blows by and wins by 1-2 Lengths.


2 weeks ago lost $57,000 on a stumble (horse ran 2nd). I think this one hurts more as he was 1/9 to me from the 1/2 to the 1/4 pole......

Had to VENT to something or someone. I feel better now.

Anyway, on to tomorrow night's card.

no breathalyzer 01-31-2016 04:35 PM

Not sure if its a true bad beat but bet half a mortgage on the :8: in the AQU R#9.. put away the leader but got caught late :bang:

EMD4ME 02-01-2016 09:02 PM

I'm going to post in advance of a bad beat....

I was rushed for time, handicapped the first 5 legs of the $100,000 Portland Pick 6 very well.

I was inundated with phone calls while capping and quickly watched some replays for the last leg. I saw that I loved the 4 over all the horses he ran against recently.

As I quickly scanned the field, I made a mental note to use the 5 as a CO A. As I got distracted, I forgot that I wanted to use the 5 (rushing) and just singled the 4 in the last leg of the Pick 6.

$22,000 was bet. $100,000 guaranteed jackpot.

Fav lost leg 1. 7/2 shot won.

Fav lost leg 2. 6/1 shot won.

Fav lost leg 3. 30/1 BOMB WON.

Fav won leg 4 but a luke warm one. 5/2

I have 346 in race 14 to the 4 in Race 15 for the pick 6.

But my heart KNOWS the 5 will win race 15 and because of my rush job, I will miss out on 100K.

I did realize my error after the 1st leg of the Pick 6 and played the Carryover Pick 5 with the 5 in race 15 but I don't want to cash that bet......

I am literally hoping that the 5 gets scratched or dumps the jock or bucks right now.


Yes, I have to get past race 14 for now but........I do know the feeling of impending doom when it hits me.

Will be back to update shortly.

For those rooting at home, have 346 in race 14 with the 4 in race 15.

EMD4ME 02-01-2016 09:17 PM

4 won race 14....The drama BUILDS......

Lemon Drop Husker 02-01-2016 09:23 PM

They are running 15 races at Portland?

EMD4ME 02-01-2016 09:28 PM

5, the horse I forgot to put in due to rushing, opened 4/5. Shoot me. Now he's 1/2.

I have a pick 4 for a buck and .80 PICK 5 to the 4. Besides the Pick 6.

Pick 6 will pays are MYSTERIOUSLY NOT being shown.

.20 back up pick 5 to the 5 is paying not enough to make me happy ($2,200) as I possibly have $100,000 on the line here.

17 MTP

garyscpa 02-01-2016 09:35 PM

#4 is lowest in all the will pays.

Redboard 02-01-2016 09:38 PM

Yea, I see. 1-1 now. 9/2ML.
I'll be rooting for you.

EMD4ME 02-01-2016 09:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by garyscpa
#4 is lowest in all the will pays.

Smart money or stable money usually bets to win....


I saw $100 cancel out on the 5 a few minutes ago. Hope someone in the know, who likes the 4 is building up their price by making believe the 5 is live off the layoff.

Still no P6 will pays. What a joke.

5 has little place and show money. I hope the stable didn't just bet to win because they know he can't lose.

ARRRGGGHHH. Can't believe I was interrupted 10 X while finishing my capping.

Needed 1 more minute to finish race 15. Would've used both and been way more secure....

NEED RACING LUCK.

2 MTP LET's GO 4 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

garyscpa 02-01-2016 09:47 PM

Too bad. Nice try.

EMD4ME 02-01-2016 09:50 PM

POssibly $100,000, for sure $6,500 plus the Pick 6, down the tubes, by a short head and more importanty due to being distracted AND there not being an announcer (had to keep bouncing back and forth to the feed to see how much time is left, while I place my bets).


ARRRGGHHHH....

Anyway, at least there's tomorrow.

Redboard 02-01-2016 09:54 PM

Yea, that sucks. I hope the $2,200 covered your bets tonight.
:-(

EMD4ME 02-01-2016 09:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Redboard
Yea, that sucks. I hope the $2,200 covered your bets tonight.
:-(

I hit the Sam Houston Pick 5 and Pick 4 and the early P5 at Portland.

I made thousands again today but I WANT STRONACH's $100,000 :bang:

I'm greedy. When I win, I want it ALL.

EMD4ME 02-01-2016 10:20 PM

Pick 6 paid $38,000. How is that possible? I thought it was a jackpot wager with a $100,000 guaranty.

How does 1 ticket get $38,000???

It could not have been 2 tickets or 3 at $38,000 as that defeats the jackpot rule AND the pool for today was just $22,000.

Anyone??????

EMD4ME 02-01-2016 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Read the fine print:

40% to the single winner carryover pool

NYRA says it paid out at the max price. $100,000 guaranty, minus the 22% vig, $78,000 for .20.

EMD4ME 02-01-2016 10:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Read the fine print:

40% to the single winner carryover pool

Buddy, ya know I luv ya. The fine print says IF NO ONE HITS IT ALONE, then the winnerS get to split 40% of today's pool. If 1 winning ticket is sold, then it's a $100K guaranty to the winner.

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/ra...like-no-other/

I'm a math freak. This is not a weakness of mine. ;)

EMD4ME 02-01-2016 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
I thought you were talking about the Portland Meadows Pick-6 Jackpot?

Payout tonight- $0.20 Pick 6 Jackpot 8-8-7-2-4-5 (6 correct) 37,919.46

Per Portland Meadows website:

Estimated Post Time of Race 9 and the start of the P-6 Sequence.
• National Racing Club Sweepstakes to be run at 2 furlongs for Thoroughbreds.
• Participating jockeys are randomly assigned mounts and on top of the usual purse distributions, will earn points and compete for jockey day bonuses.
• All typical race pools to be offered plus the Rainbow 6 jackpot bet for the 6 race sequence.
• $0.20 base, $1 minimum
• 40% to the single winner carryover pool
• 22% takeout
• *ORC Rule OAR 462-200-0645 applies

I saw that too deep in their website but that looks like their track announcer wrote it as it's so poorly written.

It's the opposite that applies and has applied for the first 3 weeks. If more than 1 person hit the P6, only 60% is paid out and 40% GOES TO THE SINGLE WINNER CARRYOVER POOL.

Meaning, 40% of every day that there is not a jackpot winner, will go to the monster pot.

EMD4ME 02-01-2016 10:57 PM

Correction to post 225, I meant to say 60% is split and 40% carries over to the single winner monster pot.

EMD4ME 02-01-2016 11:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EMD4ME
I'm going to post in advance of a bad beat....

I was rushed for time, handicapped the first 5 legs of the $100,000 Portland Pick 6 very well.

I was inundated with phone calls while capping and quickly watched some replays for the last leg. I saw that I loved the 4 over all the horses he ran against recently.

As I quickly scanned the field, I made a mental note to use the 5 as a CO A. As I got distracted, I forgot that I wanted to use the 5 (rushing) and just singled the 4 in the last leg of the Pick 6.

$22,000 was bet. $100,000 guaranteed jackpot.

Fav lost leg 1. 7/2 shot won.

Fav lost leg 2. 6/1 shot won.

Fav lost leg 3. 30/1 BOMB WON.

Fav won leg 4 but a luke warm one. 5/2

I have 346 in race 14 to the 4 in Race 15 for the pick 6.

But my heart KNOWS the 5 will win race 15 and because of my rush job, I will miss out on 100K.

I did realize my error after the 1st leg of the Pick 6 and played the Carryover Pick 5 with the 5 in race 15 but I don't want to cash that bet......

I am literally hoping that the 5 gets scratched or dumps the jock or bucks right now.


Yes, I have to get past race 14 for now but........I do know the feeling of impending doom when it hits me.

Will be back to update shortly.

For those rooting at home, have 346 in race 14 with the 4 in race 15.

So, in retrospect, not seeing the 5, really only cost me $17,644 (today's pool minus 22%) X 60%=$10,587 Divided by 2 winners=

$5,293

If I see the 5 early enough, I also have the pick 5 another 4 times. I had it to the 4 4X . 4 tickets each got $2,200 for the P5. If I had it another 3 times, that would be 8 tickets on the combo. P5 would've paid $1100. $1100 times 4 is $4,400. Did cash it once at $2,200, a net loss of $2,200 in the Pick 5.

$5,293 plus $2,200 is $7,493.

I won't lose sleep over that, thankfully.

What I will lose sleep over is not knowing if the 4 was a sole ticket combo.

He was BUMPED BY THE 5 right at the gate WHO THEN HERDED the 6 out 5 paths, which caused a chain reaction of the 789&10 losing all shot after the start.

Are there NO INQUIRIES in these 2F Races? I have not seen 1 yet in 4 weeks.

Stillriledup 02-21-2016 01:35 PM

This is more of an 'interesting' beat than a bad beat.

In today's race 2 at Aqu I had 2 small bets, 7 all all 1 and all 7 all 1 in the super.

At every point in the race, my bet had zero chance to cash. The 7 was floundering going nowhere and the 1 was off slow and trailing.

Magically, the 7 appeared on the outside to get a miracle 2nd when he was running in quicksand the entire way, the 1 rifles down the center to be in a 3 way photo. I just missed the super because the 1 got 3rd somehow, but to get that close to cashing is a miracle in and of itself. I don't normally feel that I have zero chance on the far turn and then I'm in a photo for the win.

EMD4ME 04-20-2016 06:53 PM

Can I back date a bad beat?

Macagone.

Nov of 14 TURF race. He was the 3. Had pick 5 for a buck paying $27,000 plus (for a buck). Couldn't lose. But F Jara, found a way to burn him in a Turf Route, got suckered into a duel by 10, then opened about 18 on the field.

Dumb ass floundered and got caught despite being up 7 or so at the 1/8 pole.


Every time that horse wires a field on turf, I cringe as I had him pounded BEFORE others caught on to him.

I even gave a pick 5 ticket to my buddy. He played it for .50 cents. Singled to Macagone to close. He almost threw up as the race unfolded.

Me, I lose $50,000 on a jockey error and turn the page in 30 seconds. (of course after going on a rant that all of AQU hears :lol: :lol: )

cj 04-20-2016 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EMD4ME
Can I back date a bad beat?

Macagone.

Nov of 14 TURF race. He was the 3. Had pick 5 for a buck paying $27,000 plus (for a buck). Couldn't lose. But F Jara, found a way to burn him in a Turf Route, got suckered into a duel by 10, then opened about 18 on the field.

Dumb ass floundered and got caught despite being up 7 or so at the 1/8 pole.


Every time that horse wires a field on turf, I cringe as I had him pounded BEFORE others caught on to him.

I even gave a pick 5 ticket to my buddy. He played it for .50 cents. Singled to Macagone to close. He almost threw up as the race unfolded.

Me, I lose $50,000 on a jockey error and turn the page in 30 seconds. (of course after going on a rant that all of AQU hears :lol: :lol: )

He got the best TimeformUS Speed Figure in the race if that is any consolation! :eek:

EMD4ME 04-20-2016 09:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj
He got the best TimeformUS Speed Figure in the race if that is any consolation! :eek:

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

You blindsided me GOOD on that one! Nothing like a sudden laugh from the belly.

thespaah 04-20-2016 09:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EMD4ME
Can I back date a bad beat?

Macagone.

Nov of 14 TURF race. He was the 3. Had pick 5 for a buck paying $27,000 plus (for a buck). Couldn't lose. But F Jara, found a way to burn him in a Turf Route, got suckered into a duel by 10, then opened about 18 on the field.

Dumb ass floundered and got caught despite being up 7 or so at the 1/8 pole.


Every time that horse wires a field on turf, I cringe as I had him pounded BEFORE others caught on to him.

I even gave a pick 5 ticket to my buddy. He played it for .50 cents. Singled to Macagone to close. He almost threw up as the race unfolded.

Me, I lose $50,000 on a jockey error and turn the page in 30 seconds. (of course after going on a rant that all of AQU hears :lol: :lol: )

If there is one thing about this game I find infuriating.. These sudden and illogical reversals in tactics.
Speedd speed speed for the entire amount of lines on the program. And then......Breaks fine and lays off the lead loses interest( something fornt runners will do if they can't be with the lead of the pack) and finishes in a another zip code. GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR :mad: :mad: :mad:

Stillriledup 04-22-2016 03:38 PM

i just needed the 9 to pass the 7 at aqu in the 5th to hit the tri, how do i not pass a non turf horse who battled tooth and nail the entire way with the fave and i have a strong closer with back class who sat perfectly, ugh.

cj 04-22-2016 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stillriledup
i just needed the 9 to pass the 7 at aqu in the 5th to hit the tri, how do i not pass a non turf horse who battled tooth and nail the entire way with the fave and i have a strong closer with back class who sat perfectly, ugh.


Bad beats don't apply to chalk.

Stillriledup 04-22-2016 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj
Bad beats don't apply to chalk.

So if I'm alive to a million dollar pick 6 with an 8/5 in the last leg, there's no way I can take a bad beat? :D

cj 04-22-2016 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stillriledup
So if I'm alive to a million dollar pick 6 with an 8/5 in the last leg, there's no way I can take a bad beat? :D

It wouldn't be chalk then, would it, if it were going to pay a million dollars?


Getting beat out of a fairly short priced tri that would have paid even less if you hit, no.

Stillriledup 04-22-2016 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj
It wouldn't be chalk then, would it, if it were going to pay a million dollars?


Getting beat out of a fairly short priced tri that would have paid even less if you hit, no.

Depends on the amount of money involved and not necessarily if its 'chalky'

Stillriledup 04-27-2016 09:25 PM

Had a 265 tri for my life at mountain in the 7th looked like the guy stopped riding the 5, couldn't pass the 4 for 3rd who caved in

Tall One 04-27-2016 10:16 PM

So...nobody saw the 6th at GP today? Figured that might draw some ire as opposed to a race 6 months ago.

No betting interest. Waiting on the 6th at KEE to make sure my longshot finished off the board...


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