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-   -   it's impossible to predict the belmont if justy doesn't fire (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=145133)

boys at tosconova 05-29-2018 12:02 PM

it's impossible to predict the belmont if justy doesn't fire
 
what a mish mosh of horses mostly separated by racing styles. a case can made for many.

you're going to have what 8-12 horses?

tough sledding imo if justy packs it in like many have done after 2 grueling legs.

i have to say i like tenfold a little in here. horse is just getting better.

long shot players seem to have the best shot they've ever had in this race. even though every other prep race was won by fav's

GMB@BP 05-29-2018 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova (Post 2322964)
what a mish mosh of horses mostly separated by racing styles. a case can made for many.

you're going to have what 8-12 horses?

tough sledding imo if justy packs it in like many have done after 2 grueling legs.

i have to say i like tenfold a little in here. horse is just getting better.

I think there are 3 clear contenders that the public will latch onto

Hoffberg (watch the gallop out in the Derby! He had trouble, would have won crowd)

Vino Rosso - Plodder that should love 12 furlong crowd

Bravazzo - The coach is just getting him right, he would have won a longer race crowd.

Probably be a drop down a bit to Tenfold.

After that I think the odds and chances get a little fuzzy.

Mc990 05-29-2018 01:11 PM

A little surprised VR isn't getting more attention. Think he's extremely live here... for more reasons than pedigree

His derby race could be enough to get it done and a return to his Wood makes him better than 50% IMO

GMB@BP 05-29-2018 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mc990 (Post 2322996)
A little surprised VR isn't getting more attention. Think he's extremely live here... for more reasons than pedigree

His derby race could be enough to get it done and a return to his Wood makes him better than 50% IMO

If you think he is even money and are getting 5/1 or so this is a once in a lifetime opportunity.

Mc990 05-29-2018 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GMB@BP (Post 2322999)
If you think he is even money and are getting 5/1 or so this is a once in a lifetime opportunity.

I didn't say he was even money... I said he was even money if he got back to his Wood (maybe slightly better than that actually).

Right now I'd make him 7/2 at worst and yes I expect him to be a big overlay...

The loss of audible and mbj will hurt as I thought those two were no-hopers but I still expect better than 5-1

GMB@BP 05-29-2018 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mc990 (Post 2323008)
I didn't say he was even money... I said he was even money if he got back to his Wood (maybe slightly better than that actually).

Right now I'd make him 7/2 at worst and yes I expect him to be a big overlay...

The loss of audible and mbj will hurt as I thought those two were no-hopers but I still expect better than 5-1

So you expect a performance somewhere between his Derby and the Wood?

Mc990 05-29-2018 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GMB@BP (Post 2323010)
So you expect a performance somewhere between his Derby and the Wood?

To me it's a game of percentages... so I can't say I expect a certain result given the race is a single "trial".

I think he's better than 50% to run at least his derby race

Separate from that, if he does get back to his Wood, I'd make him better than 50% to win.

Now everyone feel free to tell me how awful his derby was...

f2tornado 05-29-2018 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mc990 (Post 2323008)
I didn't say he was even money... I said he was even money if he got back to his Wood (maybe slightly better than that actually).

Right now I'd make him 7/2 at worst and yes I expect him to be a big overlay...

The loss of audible and mbj will hurt as I thought those two were no-hopers but I still expect better than 5-1

Perhaps a reasonable comparison is the 2014 Belmont where Chrome making a crown bid was 4/5, Wicked Strong 5-1, three in the 8 to 9-1 range, then your 20-1+ types. I figure Vino fits that 8-1 mold.

Quote:

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova (Post 2322964)
what a mish mosh of horses mostly separated by racing styles. a case can made for many.

you're going to have what 8-12 horses?

tough sledding imo if justy packs it in like many have done after 2 grueling legs.

i have to say i like tenfold a little in here. horse is just getting better.

long shot players seem to have the best shot they've ever had in this race. even though every other prep race was won by fav's

True. I can make a reasonable case for most of the field to hit the trifecta. I guess for now I'll plan on Justify and Indy to duke it out setting up shop for Vino, Hofburg, and perhaps even Blended Citizen. Maybe those three over themselves over all. The buck version would cost around $40 total with a shot at four figures like what Tonalist provided in 2014.

GMB@BP 05-29-2018 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mc990 (Post 2323014)
To me it's a game of percentages... so I can't say I expect a certain result given the race is a single "trial".

I think he's better than 50% to run at least his derby race

Separate from that, if he does get back to his Wood, I'd make him better than 50% to win.

Now everyone feel free to tell me how awful his derby was...

Without the PP's and the field all this is a bit tough.

The way I see it though, from a betting perspective.

1) Justify does not handle the distance
2) Justify just as had a lot of racing and is tired

If you believe either 1 or 2 then its a tremendous betting opportunity.

So if you pitch Justify you are really only left with about 4 or 5 horses that can win.

Vino Rosso is certainly one of them. I would put him at about 25% to win. I think 5 would be a fair odds bet.

I think though if you are against Justify you need to kill this race as the horizontal and vertical wagers will pay exponentially better than just a slight value play.

Redboard 05-29-2018 06:16 PM

Here's Bris preliminary Belmont pps.

http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/up...ntStakes18.pdf

Just to add to the confusion, here are bris' running style category which I extracted, from speed to closer. I don't agree with Justify's E8, and a few others. E8 is a horse who absolutely has to be on the lead, I wouldn't put him in that category.

E8 : Justify
E/P 5 : Bravazo, Noble Indy, Tenfold
E/P 4 : Restoring Hope
P2 : Hofburg
P1 : Free Drop Billy
S3 : Vino Rosso
S2 : Blended Citizen
Gronkowski (NA)

I always believed that the Belmont is won by the horse who can relax and settle into his running style.


Anybody like Gronk? fair odds?

thaskalos 05-29-2018 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Redboard (Post 2323115)
Here's Bris preliminary Belmont pps.

http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/up...ntStakes18.pdf

How does Hofburg lose this race?

Redboard 05-29-2018 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GMB@BP (Post 2323018)

...
Vino Rosso is certainly one of them. I would put him at about 25% to win. I think 5 would be a fair odds bet.
…...

25% would be 3-1. I agree though, Vino Rosso is certainly a player here, but for me I'd rather take a shot on someone who's going to nearer the pace.

Besides, Justify, there really is no speed that scares anybody. It's going to be a jock's race. Who's going to have the balls to go after him?

GMB@BP 05-29-2018 06:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Redboard (Post 2323117)
25% would be 3-1. I agree though, Vino Rosso is certainly a player here, but for me I'd rather take a shot on someone who's going to nearer the pace.

Besides, Justify, there really is no speed that scares anybody. It's going to be a jock's race. Who's going to have the balls to go after him?

3/1 estimated chances....goes off at 5/1, fair enough value if ones into that kind of thing.

PoloUK6108 05-29-2018 08:58 PM

Repoles and Hofburg.

Would love to see Gronk get revenge for Chad :D the racing world would implode.

Boris 05-29-2018 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos (Post 2323116)
How does Hofburg lose this race?

6F in 1:13
1M in 1:38


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