LRC 9

Pass #5

Barker was off the board today

Let's continue to watch his barn in Maiden Claiming races

7/4/20

Maybe Horses

15 bets (3 hit board) 1 won/ 2 placed

Lrl 3----#7 = 18.80

Win 30.00 -18.80 = minus 11.20



Pass Horses

54 bets (8 hit board) 3 won/0 placed/5 showed

GP 4----#11 = 75.60
GP 5----#1 = 27.40
Elp 9----#5 = 93.40

Win 196.40 -108.00= plus 88.40

Overall (3 days)

Maybe

3wins/39 bets = 8% frequency
+12.40/ 78.00 = 16% gain

Pass

4 wins/129 bets = 3% freq.
-17.80/258.00 = minus 2% loss

7/5/20

Bel 4

Pass #3, #4, #5

Mth 6

Pass #6

Bel 5

Pass #1, #2, #6, #8, #10

GP 8

Maybe #5
Pass #4, #6, #9

Mth 7

Pass #8

Bel 6

Pass #4

Mth 8

Pass #3, #4

Bel 7

Maybe #2
Pass #3

Mth 9

Pass #1, #2, #4

Elp 7

Maybe #1, #7
Pass #5

Total defeat. The 3 longest shots came in 1,2,3

#1 216.00, 83.00, 32.00 (Off at 99:1)
#2 -------, 44.40, 34.00 (Off at 65:1)
#4 -------, -------, 21.20 (Off at 99:1)

Bel 8

Pass #3, #5

Elp 8

Maybe #6
Pass #8

Gp 11

Maybe #1

Mth 10

Pass #2 #4, #7

Bel 9

Pass #5, #8, #9

Elp 9

Pass #2, #10

Mth 11

Pass #1, #5

Bel 10

Pass #3, #9

LARC 7

Pass #7

LARC 8

Maybe #3
Pass #2, #4, #7, #9

7/5/20

Maybe Horses

7 bets (3 hit board) 0 won/ 3 placed

GP 8------12.00, 7.40
Elp 8------ 5.20, 3.20
GP 11----- 6.80, 4.20



Pass Horses

41 bets (9 hit board) 1 won/2 placed/6 showed

Bel 5------#1 --------, -------, 16.60
Bel 6------#4 --------, -------, 7.60
Mth 8-----#4 --------, -------, 34.00
Mth 9-----#1 216.00, 83.00, 32.00
Mth 9-----#2 -- ------, 44.00, 21.20
Mth 9-----#4 --------,---------, 34.00
Elp 7------#5 --------,--19.40, 5.60
Elp 8------#8 --------, --------, 7.60
LARC------#9 --------, --------, 9.20

Overall (4 days)

Maybe

46 bets (3W/7P/2S)

Win 3/46 = 7% frequency

Minus 1.60/92 = 2% loss

In the money 12/64 = 26%



Pass

170 bets (5W/3P/15S)

Win 5/170 = 3% frequency

Plus 116.20/340 = 34% profit

In the money 23/170 = 14%

I don't know if you're reading comments but I wanted to say a couple things that yesterday's 99-1 at Monmouth shows.

1) Crazy results like that will screw up your stats indefinitely. Overall your "pass" horses were underperforming your "maybe" horses by a substantial margin. Now it looks like the opposite is true, because of one horse.

2) If you're ONLY betting huge longshots, you basically have to bet every day of the year. (I realize this horse was in your "pass" not your "maybe" but the truth is the same.) Because when you're only hitting 5% of your bets, if you miss that one $150 horse and the profits that come with it, it can ruin your whole year. Some people can handicap and bet every year, but for those who can't, this type of betting can be mentally challenging.

I still believe I can overcome the poor (freak) start by concentrating on horses that show a glimmer of hope and passing those that show nothing.

7/8/20

Del 2

Pass #4

GP 5

Maybe #1, #9
Pass #3, #4, #5

Kee 3

Pass #2, #4

Del 3

Pass #2, #5, #9

GP 6

Maybe #7
Pass #1, #5

Kee 4

Maybe #8, #12
Pass #3, #4, #9, #10, #11

Del 5

Maybe #4
Pass #5

Kee 5

Pass #5, #6, #8, #9, #10, #12

GP 8

Maybe #7
Pass #1, #8

Kee 6

Pass #2, #3, #4, #8, #11,

Del 7

Pass #1, #13