final 3/8 of a mile
 

Known Agenda ran the last 3 furlongs of the Florida Derby in approximately 37 seconds.

Horses that run the last 3 furlongs of a big 5 prep race in 37 4/5 or less win the KY Derby twice as often as statistical expectation..

These horses as a group have an impact value of approximately 2.00. They comprise 33 percent of the starters but a strong 67 percent of the winners

Just curious as to the final fraction for Greatest Honour. Didn't use him yesterday but have him at 50-1 in the futures and under the field in pool 2 exactas. Only a 94 beyer for Known Agenda which means Greatest should be even lower. Decreasing beyers not a good sign for Derby horses.

Nice stat. :ThmbUp:

The final 3/8th of the race from the 3/4 call to wire was 37.16, call it 37 1/5 for old school. Known Agenda was about 2 1/2 behind the leader at the 3/4 call so he might have completed that 3/8 about half second faster than the clock. Greatest Honour was 5 back at the 3/4 call and crossed the line 5 3/4 back. His final 3/8th would approximate the split, probably no more than a 1/5 second above it. The horse finally had what looked like a bad trip. I wouldn't totally rule him out of the trifecta in May assuming he runs. I did not include him in my Pool 5 exacta.

Regarding the BSF, I don't put too much salt in a standalone number. Nyquist got a 92 in the FL Derby however his 117 TimeformUS likely measured it better. Known Agenda got a 112 Equibase figure which is a strong one. Looks like a 113 TimformUS figure that is about par for prep winners this season. Or take a look at Medina Spirit who grabbed a solid 120 TimeformUS and decent 95 BSF in the San Felipe but only a so-so 93 Brinset and 98 Equibase.

result chart fla derby
 

Can someone post the result chart of florida derby?

result chart fla derby
 

THANKS.

final 3/8
 

So far 3 horses have run well enough in the big 5 preps to merit consideration:

Known Agenda in the Florida Derby with the final 3 furlongs in 37.

Essential quality in the Blue Grass -final 3 furlongs in 36 3/5

Highly Motivated in the Bliue Grass final 3 furlongs in 36 3/5

two with buckpasser in the tail, on of those with RAN Sire line, Known Agenda and none with a CONDUIT

buck passer in the X
 

Known Agenda has Buckpasser in the X line but not in tail female.

Highly motivated also has buckpasser in the X line but not in tail female.

Essential Quality does not carry Buckpasser in the X but does have the strong conduit mare, Doxa, in tail female.

These above three look strongest in my opinion so far.

We shall see how Concert Tour runs in the Ark but if he runs the way Baffert talks him up then we’d get another RAN Buckpasser-x option. He sure made the Rebel look easy geared down crossing the wire. I boxed him with Essential Quality and the field (Known Agenda plus perhaps a dozen others) in the final pool. 30+ to 1 for the cheapest combination while getting a dozen horses seemed like an absolute steal.

Here are the final fractions for this year's Derby contenders.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/a...1&d=1617593153

opps, doxa is 1-x not 1-s, I didn't look past family

final 3/8
 

In order for a horse to qualify on my final 3/8 angle it must NOT have lost 2 lengths or more from the 6 furlong call to the finish of the big 5 prep race.

Soup and Sandwich does not qualify because he lost more than 2 lengths from the six furlong point to the finish line of the Florida Derby. I have found it to be extremely rare for a Derby winner to lose ground from the six furlong call to the finish line of a big 5 prep..

He is a god longshot.