The Handicapper's Cafe
 

I would like to add a "Question & Answer" thread to this forum...in order to encourage more conversation on handicapping and betting.

It is very difficult to talk about handicapping and betting, when you don't know who (or how informed...or how INTERESTED in getting better informed) your audience is.

I am sure that there are legitimate "experts" at this site, because I have been reading their posts here for years; but I am equally certain that there are novices here as well...who are still trying to find their way in this fascinating but frustrating game.

I have repeatedly stated that a mentor is invaluable in this game of ours...because there are so many questions that need an answer...and, also, so many unscrupulous people around...who provide the WRONG answer, because it is financially beneficial to THEM. Without a "true" mentor...a player could easily flounder along for YEARS...without making any real progress in gaining a thorough understanding of this game.

THIS is what I had in mind when I started this Handicapper's Corner. I wanted to be the mentor that I myself wished I would have had...when I started playing this game, 30 years ago.

Any handicapping or betting question you need answered, you should ask right here...and I will provide as complete and accurate an answer as my 30 years in the game will allow. I will also use the more interesting questions to start new threads...so we can develop these topics further.

I think that this will be better than me just starting topics of discussion on my own...thinking that they will be of interest to you, just because they happen to be of interest to me.

Lest anyone misunderstand me, let me state at the very start that, although I consider myself a very knowledgable player, my knowledge of this game is not, by any means, "encyclopedic"...so I welcome the assistance of all of you who would also like to participate here, and present YOUR point of view on things.

My aim here is to provide a place where the interested player, REGARDLESS of his knowledge and experience in the game, can ask a question about some aspect of it...and get that question answered in a prompt and satisfactory manner.

As I said before...I will select the most engaging questions, in order to start other threads...so we can develop these topics further.

I also reserve the right to ask and answer my OWN questions, whenever I feel a topic may need further development...or when I want to steer the conversation in a certain direction.

A word of caution:

I plan on being a lot more liberal in my use of the moderator privileges that PA has bestowed upon me. This forum is for those with REAL questions...who are in need of real ANSWERS.

I will have no tolerance for those whose real purpose is to stymie this discussion...or to ask disingenuous questions, in order to further some mysterious agenda of their own.

Those questions will be unceremoniously deleted.

As I have already stated, my own schedule gets hectic at times...and, although I plan on spending time every night (especially late) participating in our discussion here...I am not starting this with the intent of it revolving around "thaskalos"...

I implore ALL the posters here to participate in our discussion ...so we can get some lively and useful conversation going. With all the expert players we have here, no reasonable question should be left unanswered.

When the industry shows disinterest in properly educating the players in the art/science of handicapping and betting...what other choice do the players have but to educate their own?

My ultimate mission is...and has been from the very beginning...to preserve Paceadvantage's top spot among horse racing forums and message boards.

With that said...let our discussion begin!

My Greek friend in cyberspace, you write so darn well. It's going to be difficult competing against you. Good luck with your effort. Hope to see you at Arlington Park this summer.

I really don't see us as "competitors", my friend...

When people work for the same noble cause, then, IMO, they are on the same team...regardless of the address they choose to occupy.

In any event, I wish you luck in your own endeavors as well...

And I promise you one thing:

You will never hear a derogatory word about you -- or your efforts over at the "bright side" -- from Thaskalos.

No matter WHAT you might say about me, and my efforts here...when you address YOUR audience over there...

I want to talk about handicapping factors that aren't about speed or pace or class but strictly about the bettor.Handicapping oneself and betting habits and the psychology of a player.

After yanking myself out of a losing streak late last year,an inexplicable run that damaged badly what had been a year of a 71% ROI for 10 months,I had to break down my each and every move and impose strict betting rules.Doing so I realized that my reality was getting too far removed from my philosophy.My temper was short and my aggression was too readily apparent.I was trying to force it.I had success to the point where I thought it was time to do business and through sheer force of willpower make a run.

I couldn't even talk about this a month ago.It was a learning experience albeit a very painful one.Instructive nevertheless.I broke down things into odds brackets,grading races,was influenced by the Optimal Position Sizing post on here and made that a point of focus to correspond to the race grades.Each day became less about wins and losses but in analyzing what I was thinking at a certain time.The process.Clearing up the going from point A to point B.If you have any advice about just the flow of playing,preparation,just having that innate sense of balance of gameplan and execution,I would be grateful.I have made a pact this year to not learn any new methodology but focus on what's floating around my head at every moment.I'm already becoming more efficient and making more money.But not quite there yet.

Player psychology is my specialty...and I regret that I don't have the time to address your question right now.

I will be back late tonight...with my opinions on the handicapper's "inner" struggle...

As Thaskalos is going to expand on this later, let me toss in my two cents worth.

First of all, nearly all players will go on losing streaks, sooner of later. In fact I'm on one now.
Step1. Is accepting the reality that losing streaks happen.

Step2. For me, a losing streak is a message to either play less, bet less,
or even take a total break from the game for a couple of weeks or more.

Secondly, a review of "Why?" you are playing the races, and "Who?" you are playing the races with, and possibly "Where?" you are playing the races, and "What?" races you are playing never hurts. Knowing the answers to those questions can put your play in perspective to other elements in life as well.

Step 2 was key.While I believe that playing relatively often keeps you sharp,it can lead to just going through the motions.I had to stop and get away from it for a minute.I was having half baked handicapping because of burnout and squandering the good handicapping I did do.I wasn't maximizing the races that were there for me.There were sequences of races I could have crushed because they were give me's.Taking just a few weeks off got my passion sparked back up and my mind focused.I had a great,patient,and winning Saturday this week.I had a prerace gameplan and executed.There were no surprises.I was at least in control of myself and was just odds shopping!

Appreciate your input man.

Thaskalos,

I would like to see you put up some sample races and see how you take them apart. I think this is a great thing you are doing and just hope you don"t get aggravated with the few that try to ruin it. Is there a way I can send a private e-mail. Thanks Boulder

Sample races are forthcoming...and they will be the subject of a separate thread.

If you need to contact me privately, send me a PM here...because I haven't yet figured out how to access my e-mail by phone. :)

Before you consider your sample races, And when selected, Use the fig guys to start your handicapping usually they supply four horses on there lists and good place on there top four has 80% win rate. Bris also supply there power play numbers same thing to handicap down.
Mac:)

Thaskalos,

im new here but from reading your posts i understand your a superfecta bettor,

and possibly (like me) an old scool pencil and paper,form in hand player,

so my question is this, when you open your form,do you look for races first where you have identified a longshot to possibly hit the board or do you take apart races at your favorite track(s) etc.?

regards

Yes...I am an "old-school", pencil and paper, Form in hand, superfecta bettor.

The only things "hi-tech" about my game are some expensive pens I recently bought, which write even while upside-down...and allow me to write things unto my Racing Form while I am lying down on my couch.

I do not have any "favorite tracks"...I only have favorite races.

I look for full, competitive fields...comprised of older horses, with full past performance records.

yes thats whats aggravating about tracks like delta, penn etc. only 6 pps, not a complete ppf profile

Losing streaks are an inescapable part of the game, and the player must learn to effectively deal with them...if he intends to keep his bankroll (and his sanity) intact.

When one of these losing streaks presents itself, you have to ask yourself the following question:

Am I playing my "A" game, and sticking to my normal gameplan...or am I losing control and chasing my losses, thus turning a normal bankroll fluctuation into a possible financial disaster?

When in the middle of a losing streak, it becomes more imprortant than ever to be as disciplined and in control as possible with our bankroll...and our handicapping choices.

If you can keep your composure, and still stick to your normal gameplan in spite of the losing streak...then there is no reason to make any changes to your normal way of doing things -- because losing streaks are very normal in our game...and they often end as suddenly as they appear.

But if you find that you are losing control and starting to "chase" your losses, in order to get "even" quicker than is normally possible...then -- as Greyfox said -- a total break from the game is an excellent idea.

My friend...I want you to remember this:

Losing streaks play a very important role in our development as players...because they reveal to us how "mature" we really are...and how far we still have to go in order to reach the sort of self-mastery that this game requires -- if winning money is our prime motivation.

In this regard, losing streaks are not the "curse" that most players think they are; they are just a "test"...to grade our REAL advancement as players.

When I was first getting serious about online poker, I was often bewildered by the "bad beats" I would suffer...often at the hands of players much less "informed" than I was.

I sought the advice of a friend of mine, who was a professional online poker player...and who played in much bigger games than I did.

"How can I deal with these bad beats?"...I asked him. "I am playing against players much worse than I am...and yet I can't win a hand."

Instead of saying anything to me, he allowed me to watch over his shoulder as he played his own day's session...playing 4 tables of no-limit holdem at the same time -- at stakes 10-times my own.

I was horrified by what I saw...

Here was this high-limit professional player, suffering the exact same bad beats that I was experiencing...except he was losing THOUSANDS in the process -- instead of the insignificant (by comparison) amounts that these bad beats were costing me.

And yet, he wasn't disturbed by this in the least...nor did his gameplan change in the slightest because of this blatant display of bad luck. He played the exact same, selectively-aggressive game he always played...regardless of whether he was winning or losing.

I grew up a lot as a gambler that day...because I realized a very important thing:

We ALL suffer through bad luck in gambling...and the BEST players suffer much more than we do...because they bet a lot more money.

But they stick to their gameplan without deviation, because they have RESPECT for their "game"...and don't want to see it dragged through the mud.

A gambler's life is full of peaks and valleys, and there is nothing any of us can do about it...because it is out of our control.

The only thing we CAN control, is our REACTION to these violent swings of fate.

The best players are not perturbed by them...and they thrive.

Lesser players are tormented by them...and they perish.

And it's only fair, because how you handle adversity is the true measure of a gambler...and of a man, in general...

Thaskalos,

Im also new to this forum my question to you is before you even open a racing form to handicap the races do you have a set bankroll for the day?

An excellent thread/forum Thaskalos. Thanks for leading the way in helping others out! I started last year and after a dream run for two months (during summer), I went through valleys and peaks. Took a break and just getting back as the Derby season is warming up!

I am very interested in learning more about figuring out chances of closers vs leaders/off the pace stalkers - under various track conditions. And also about turf races - I still cannot wrap my head around any turf race yet and definitely none of the downhill turfs they do in So Cal circuits.

No question to ask right now, but I just wanted to say that the post about the mental side of the game was excellent and I really respect what you're trying to do in this forum. Very interesting stuff.

When you are in the midst of a losing streak self doubt begins to creep in and you have a tendency to overhandicap. You might have a price horse that you are set to play, but when you look closer there are some things that you don't like. Maybe you were wrong and he is not that good. If he wins (and you know he will) and you don't have money on him you have picked a winner while, at the same time, digging a bigger hole for yourself. And on and on. When you lose a head bob finish in which your horse was a ton the best consider it as a victory. You were right, you just don't get paid this time. Just do it the way you do it and things will turn around as they always do.

I appreciate the kind words...

My own gambling journey has been a painful one, and, in retrospect, I realized that much of this pain could have been avoided...had I followed some of the advice I received along the way.

But whom do you listen to...and how can you tell the good advice from the bad?

I keep remembering an old-time gambler...who told me once:

"Gambling wisdom can be learned...but it cannot be taught."

I found that this is very true; ultimately, all winning gamblers are "self-taught"...but a true mentor or two, coming at the right time, can make a world of difference -- if the player is paying attention.

I want to be that sort of mentor to all those who would care to listen...because this game doesn't need any more "victims" than it currently has.

If I can help even ONE player avoid some of the pain that I have gone through...then I will consider my efforts here to be worthwhile.

Thask,

Don't those two quotes contradict each other?

Personally, I believe you can teach people. Let me emphasize that differently... YOU (personally) can (probably) teach people.

Granted, there are lessons that must be learned from the inside out which are required to become a world class at anything.

I will also give you that not everyone is capable of learning to win just like I was never able to learn to go to my left, ending any shot I had at a basketball career. (Okay, coupled with the fact that I can't jump and am only 5'9".)

My point is that people can certainly be taught to improve their game (whatever that game might be) but may not be able to improve to the level of world class, which is what it takes to beat the game.


Now that I think of it I guess I can see why those two quotes are not really contradictory. There are simply limitations on the end result.


Dave,

I don't think my two quotes contradict each other, Dave...and I'll tell you why:

I spoke a little here about the "mental" side of gambling, which I consider to be of vital importance...but can I really expect those who read what I had to say, to heed my advice when they find themselves in the "heat" of battle?

Not likely...

I told them the TRUTH...but it was MY truth...and it won't become theirs until they embrace it for themselves. And, most likely, that won't start to be the case until they have experienced some of the pain that all undisciplined players expose themselves to...in all the arenas of gambling.

But in the midst of that pain, they might remember me and my advice, just as I remembered the advice that others had given ME...and then, slowly, they may begin embracing the truthfullness of what I initially told them. And then...my "wisdom" becomes theirs to keep.

And both my seemingly conflicting quotes prove themselves to be TRUE!

They ultimately taught "themselves"...but I was still a great help to them along the way...

The great Taoist saying goes..."The teacher appears, only when the student is ready"...

In gambling...the student often SAYS that he is "ready" -- but he really ISN'T.

Do you think a larger bankroll would help you over these times? The question might be, what is the proper bet size based on your bankroll size?

Gus, I agree with most of what you say and having been at the game myself for over 60 years I also have been down that learning road.

One thing I've noticed over the years is that there are an awful lot of players who are not bad handicappers but are liars. Not that they lie to others about what they do but they lie to themselves. They won't admit that the losing path they are following is their own fault but blame it on a million other things.

So I think that some good advice is to learn to look in the mirror and tell that guy you see in there the truth. Mighty hard for some to do.

You should not be betting with a large bankroll unless you have proven to yourself that your method(s) are profitable. I would never bet more than 5% on any one race. Losing more than you can afford do to a wild hair impulse can be devastating....

A few (I am sure I will think of many, many more) topics/questions that I would be very interested in Gus' (and others') perspectives:

1) Money management - specifically ho you determine the size of the bet in a given race/situation
2) Exotics - I know you are a big superfecta bettor - how do you structure those bets? How do you determine that you have enough value in the the race to bet it? Bet size also comes into play here. And any thoughts on 0ther exotics (horizontal or vertical)
3) Track specific adjustment to your play (if any) - what are they, how did you determine this and why?
4) Layoffs - how do you evaluate them?
5) Trainer and/or jockey impact on your evaluation of a horse
6) Factors that make the last race(s) 'throw outs' versus signs of declining form
7) Turf racing approach vs poly approach vs dirt approach.

Thx for considering any of these

psychology and hedging
 

My experience, largely miserable, leads me to believe that I have a losers mentality because i fail to make obvious bets. For example I was all over caleb's posse in the breeder's cup keying him in the various horizontal bets that i'm most interested in. I was playing with short money having been recently (at that time) laid off. So did I make a simple $10 or even $2 to win bet on the horse? Of course not. Another major component of my play is mission impossible. For example, with $80 in my phone account betting two pick 4s and a pick 6. Now for me this is fun even though I realize its insane. I can deal with that. Generally though when I'm actually betting live at an OTB my "psychology" is horrendous and consists of flying from one rage to the next with the stupid bets that inevitably follow. Lately I've been limiting myself to one pick 4 a week betting no more that about $30 and hedging the pick 4 with a double or two and a pick 3. My fantasy is being able to view a pick 4 sequence as a whole and being able to determine the most profitable pick 4 plays and the most effective double and pick 3 plays that will get my $ back at least. Obviously my handicapping is simply not good enuf to do this successfully on a consistent basis but i would like to hear ideas on this type of approach, on hedging in general and on improving my psychology when i'm betting live.

Superfecta

I frequented a former site Offthepace for about three years before it shut down
the owner played the all the time the superfecta and triactor box but not every race as Vern the moderator woud see no value here. He would wager $320 on his selections and would most time go six deep.
I have never played the superfecta but my time at that site i saw him cash 14k tickets and less many times which he had to declare. He had his losing streaks but knew when to stop with very little damage.
He went 4/5/5/ 6 horses in various combinations and the odd All in the fourth spot he done all this online and posted at various tracks but very seldom on the west coast tracks.
To me he had the right way to play superfecta boxed and had the handicapping skills to match.
Mac

IMO, most players can't handle the truth...about their own play, or about the game itself...

We lose year after year, and yet we refuse to give up our own losing methods of play...because we blame our results on bad luck.

We refuse to acknowledge that this is an extremely difficult game to beat...choosing instead to believe the unscrupulous system sellers and the irresponsible handicapping authors...who tell us that 20-40% long-term profits are out there waiting for us...in exchange for a $20 bill and a little effort.

Who wants to hear that this game is virtually unbeatable without great effort and single-minded dedication?

One specific thing i learned about myself, (or my play),and it took maybe 20 years to figure this out(why so long I cant say),is that playing only one circuit-

I would often find a good bet or two on a card (often quickly), and then try to "handicap the hell out of" the other races on the card, and often times the "handicapped to hell" races, that I spent a large amount of time going back and forth on were far less fruitful for me than the ones that seemed to appear relatively early in the process.

Now this is what you have to learn in this game and not take twenty years as the above post and myself have done

Mac:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

If anyone was wagering with all of the above seven questions maybe time to get some outside advice or spend some money on one of the adverisers figures to give you a base.
Mac:confused:

I am hoping that you will get around to how to handle trainers thread sooner later. What do you think of top speed rated horses with bad trainers? What do you think of logical horses with bad trainers? What about long shots with high % trainers?

What does the term "bad trainer" mean to you?

Is a 12-15% winning trainer a "bad trainer"?

Guys. You have zillions of questions.
But I don't think that we've scratched the mental side of winning or losing that deeply yet.

Thaskalos has addressed the question of losing streaks well. :ThmbUp:

I think in playing the races the mind-set that the player has when he enters the track or betting competition via his computer at home,
having "self-confidence" in YOUR PICKS AND HOW YOU WILL BET THEM IS A MUST.

When I go to the track/O.T.B. I see too many people asking one another:
"What do you think of this one?" or "What do you like here?"

The average player is likely to get three or four opinions from four or five different people. Whereas his first intuitive hunch was to play the #5 horse that wins, he ends up on some other nag that someone has mentioned to him. Then of course, he's looked at the tote board and figures that his analysis at home must have been faulty as the #5 has 8-1 odds or higher.
In effect, his ears and the eyes on the toteboard have guided him away from what would have been a good score.

Unless you see something horrific about your selection in the Post Parade,
stick with your initial picks. If you are going to lose money, at least let it be on your selections, not someone else's poor picks.
If you plan on winning money, pre-study of the races is Mandatory.
Having put in that energy at home, why veer away from your picks because of what others think?? In other words, show more belief in the idea that you are a winner and will win. If you can't do that, then maybe you should go knit mitts or something.

The questions leave a lot to be desired, What track, Turf, and all of the above.

Mac:confused:

With some of the questions maybe hard to acheive

Mac:confused:

Two things that helped me alot to finally start believing in my handicapping skills
http://www.sartinmethodology.com/pub...inningPMTR.pdf
http://www.scribd.com/doc/51568974/S...ng-On-Yourself
Great reads about the underappreciated psychology of winning

Reminds me of my days hanging out at the OTB.

I'd routinely buy tickets from people who were headed to the window to cancel. (within reason)

Generally dirt sprints, although I doubt the track matters much, but lets say NYRA. With shorter fields being the norm the these days I consider bad trainers to be anyone with less than a 10 win percentage and good trainers to have a 20%+ . It looks like with the exception of a very few "name "trainers , that trainers do not effect the odds much. I don't have data base, so I rely on observations that I notice. One of the things I think I have noticed is that really bad trainers(0-5%) only win at a price(10/1+). On the rare occasions that one those trainer that logically figure to be a contender like running IM with close to the highest SR in its last race, they fail miserably. What do you think of a 30% trainer with a 8/1 + shot. Since 30% trainers do get a bet a little, is it a bad sign.