sharp azteca - nyquist exacta box, wires the field...

Has to be the fastest any horse has shipped up to pimlico, when owners make that turn onto winners ave they may wonder why they have thier multi million dollar horse lingering in such a bad neighborhood for 2 weeks, im actually floored by it

With that said pimlico is just an awesome place to attend live racing

72 times in 140 Preakness' the favorite has won and the longest odds ever for a Preakness winner was 23-1

He'll never get there on that track, by the time he starts moving Nyquist is going to be long gone on the front end. Plus the smaller the field size the more likely we are to see noone challenge on the front end.

There couldn't have been a more rabid fan of Nyquist than I going into the KD. But I must say, his effort there seemed to be way more taxing than what he expericenced in the FL Derby.

Those who heavily bet against him in the KD committed suicide. But those who judiciously pick their spots in the Preakness could make amends. A hundred bucks or so going against the common wisdom is worth it, imo.

I agree that this was a taxing effort.

One thing about this situation, however, is that we already know that Reddam and O'Neill do not have Triple Crown fever. They pulled I'll Have Another out and did the right thing for the horse. So if you see them running in the Preakness, there's probably a somewhat greater likelihood than with other connections that the horse is 100 percent.

I'm likely to bet Collected if the track is fast and Exaggerator if it isn't.

I beg to differ. Nyquist’s race in the Derby was on par with his current ability, and only further demonstrated its apparent will to Win. Other then following a rapid pace throughout on what most people believed to be a very fast racing surface, Nyquist had a clear run and didn’t experience any unusual racing abnormalities that would have caused additional effort and physical strain.

Beyond that I’m not sure how many people noticed the run-out after the finish line, but I certainly would have expected to see Exaggerator run right on by Nyquist based on its powerful closing move. Instead, we saw Nyquist continue on the lead with Exaggerator looking like the one who was losing energy from a arduous final run at the leader.

I also believe that Nyquist has a conditioning edge based on it’s racing schedule: Having established a solid foundation last year and then not returning to race for 3 ½ months this year. Then we have to consider having raced only twice before the Derby with 1 ½ months off between those 2 races and over a month off before the Derby. I think O’Neill has had brilliant strategy for getting this versatile horse through the rigors of a TC campaign.

Of course, anything can happen during the next 5 weeks that might interrupt or prevent Nyquist from achieving that goal. In the back of my mind I always reminisce about what happened to Spectacular Bid prior to the Belmont Stakes. If any horse could have been considered a lock to win the TC it might have been the “Bid”. Many believe as I do one that it was one of the Classiest animals to ever hit the race track and on par with all the great ones from the 70’s.
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I think that Nyquist exerted down the stretch last Saturday, far more than he did in the FL Derby. It was his latter effort that gave me so much confidence leading into Louisville. Heading to Pimlico ... not so much.

agree. I thought Nyquist topped out with a 1/16 to go, and that is why Mario kept looking back for challengers. Luckily for him, I believe Exaggerator topped out as well with around a 1/16 to go.

After the finish line, Nyquist kept going, & Exaggerator & SBN were closingb& still couldn't pass Nyquist after the wire. Nyquist might have been getting tired, but I couldn't see it. Nyquist for some reason will.not allow a horse to go by him.

We have not seen the best of Nyquist yet.
Prediction - Preakness Beyer - 108-110.

Belmont ordering extra hot dogs for the big day in June.:p

I'm going to agree.

What part of the Derby was so taxing? He got a perfect trip, I mean absolutely perfect, and he ran the entire stretch without even a single horse coming within a length of him.

Now he is going to a shorter distance and a track that is even friendlier to speed, he rolls in the Preakness. This year's 3YO look even worse than last years.

Last year's crop--aside from AP--was pathetic. What did it do in the BCC ... or since? I didn't see anything in Dubai that would change my mind. I'd put up Exaggerator against any of the crud from 2015.

What I remember seeing is Nyquist being spanked pretty good when he seemed to be laboring a bit. Granted, he deserves props for running so fast early. But I question about how depleting his effort was.

I just read another post of yours a short while ago saying that racing wasn't far from being a dead sport. This post from you here is encouraging it to take one step more towards this "dead sport" becoming a reality. Think of the trickle down effect of your suggestion and what kind of negative financial impact it would have towards the track itself, and subsequently how that effects the racing at Belmont as a whole.

As far as being "fair" what races are actually "fair" based on what you describe here where we see all the participating horses enter the gates at equal conditioning? Every weekend we see horses competing against each other at various points in their form cycle. Horses are coming in off a layoff all the time and competing against others who are in their 3rd race of their cycle. Those are in turn competing against other horses who may be 6 or 7 races into their cycle and haven't had an extended break for months. Are those races not "fair" as well based on your reasoning?

Nyquist at 50 cents on the dollar vs this field seems like a great bet to me...he has beaten exxxagertor 4 times and exxxagertor is the main contender? Taking 4-1 on him is a horrible proposition in my mind...also, when was the last time a non KY Derby entrant won the Preakness? Unless you swallow 1-2 how can anyone else possibly make sense or make for a "good" bet