KY Turf Cup
 

In Sat"s KY Turf Cup the top 3 TFUS power picks (Oscar Nominated, Multiplier, Manitpuolin) were all solid picks though all finished off the board. Oscar Nominated had an excuse as he lost tons of ground with his wide trip. So much ground that with a better trip he would have won. I'm just wondering what happened to the other 2. Maybe they tired late because they were not used to setting or pressing the pace as they did.
CJ, could you please post figures for the race results just to see how much these horses declined. Do you think the change in pace tactics is what did M and M in?

Given the uniqueness of that turf course I dont see how prior pp's/ and post race figures are much of an indicator of how well or not well a horse ran.

Its like using the belmont figures for all other races.

The uniqueness of that track does present some problems but I think figures earned at other tracks, if one takes certain differences into consideration, are useful. Oscar Performance was clearly the best based on his figures and would have won had he not had that ridiculously wide trip. most if the other horses seemed to run to their figures but the only thing that seemed odd was the performances of the 2 other horses I mentioned. At first I thought that the pace was responsible but based on a generic formula I use when I'm not familiar with a particular tracks' pace pars (which actually works even better than I expect), the pace seemed normal. However the extreme difference in the shape of KY downs probably renders such generalizations useless. I'm guessing that the track shape requires a particular pace par unique to that track and I'm guessing that would show that the race's pace was actually more tiring than it appeared. That's why I'm curious as to what the TFUS speed and pace figures based on that track are.

i thought I read it was not possible to have pace figures do to the timing there...maybe that was another track.

Thanks,
I've watched the replay and it does show that Oscar ran well and lost more ground on the turns than he was beaten by and probably would have duplicated his top figure and won if not for the trip.
The thing that I need the speed and pace figures for is to see if the pace was a factor in the performances of the 2 other contenders and to what extent it impacted their expected speed figures.

Based on results I can say that TimeformUS and Beyer numbers held up well on Saturday for all races...

In the replay, Oscar looked flat through-out, though covered up into the first turn and wide into the stretch...still Arklow out-performed him early running adjacent for awhile then powered away taking an inside/ middle path to split horses...IMO, Oscar was dull, maybe short...even Bronson blew by him late... pace no factor, guess...

Horse always runs well, just does not like to win. To me, was a bet against from the start. The bad trip at KD is something to look for, a lot of horses get the same trip.

I think pace was more of a factor than the early fractions indicate. That's why I'd like to see the pace figures. the horses who were 1-2-3 at the half were 3-6-11 at the finish. The horses who finished 1-2-3 were 8-6-1 at the half. Most of the early speed tired and the closers did well.
An exception for the leaders was Soglio who contested the early lead and held on for 3rd. One exception for closers was Oscar, who would have had to been a super horse to overcome the huge ground loss. He only lost by 4 lengths after losing at least 7 on the turns. He did very well to perform as well as he did under the circumstances and was best by far considering ground loss.

I've always played Kentucky Downs as a horse for course type place, mostly because nothing else has worked for me there. You can't judge pace very well other than by looking at what happens to the speeds late in the race. The fractions are hand timed and aren't accurate at all. It isn't uncommon to see something posted like 25, 47 which we know isn't reality.

Multiplier never won beyond 1 1/8 miles so I think this was just too far for him. Manitoulin, the horse I made a small bet on hoping his last race was a function of the soft course and not him going off form, turned out to just be off form in my opinion.

My wife bet Arklow using TimeformUS...go figure. :)

I happen to hear during the broadcast of KY Downs, that several trainers I think Sharp, Ward, and ?, shipped horses to work over the surface. Does anyone know if those appear anywhere?

http://www.equibase.com/static/worko...ex.html?SAP=TN

That is if you want to know ahead of time. If you wait for the races they are in all the PPs as far as I know.

That said I don't see any listed for Kentucky Downs.

The people on the simulcast have said that Mike Maker was another that shipped in early to acclimate.

Thanks for the figures. When I can't get accurate pace figures (and even when I can) I pretty much do what you do and see how the leaders made out compared to the closers. I use a method, which I learned from Beyer, to see how the top 3 leaders position at the pace call placed at the finish compares to how the top 3 placers at the finish were at the pace call. 1-2-3 at the pace call finished 3-11-6.
1-2-3 finishers were 8-6-2 at the half. Seemed to show there was some evidence for a tiring pace. Usually works pretty well.

Congrats to the wife. How could I miss Arklow had such a good figure previously? :bang: