The Belmont Stakes (Grade 1) $1,500,000 Saturday June 10
 

12th Race 7PM :coffee:

I'll take a small flyer on Red Route One to win but will key on Angel of Empire in the horizontal gimmicks.

Good luck to all wagering!

Despite being essentially a one-run closer ANGEL OF EMPIRE has a good turn move on smaller tracks and is capable of hitting the front at the top of the stretch. The wider turns at Belmont should make his advancement into a contending position that much easier. He's been consistent and can lay closer if the pace is slow without blunting his late move. His last two works for this have been sharp.

Baffert is in new territory with NATIONAL TREASURE. His previous Belmont winners trained at CD for this, while this colt went directly to Belmont from MD. It's a bit curious that he went that route while ARABIAN LION went back home (he's entered in the Woody Stephens). That's 3 different surfaces to train/race on, which probably put some stress on the horse. In that regard, bullet working him only 5 days before the race when the horse already has what appears to be a huge pace advantage is suspect in my book (though that's pretty much what he did with Justify & AP). Nevertheless, horse got brave with no pressure last time, is one-paced anyways, and his style & class is probably enough to hang on for a piece.

TAPIT TRICE could easily come along for 3rd with a cleaner trip than he got at CD but he's looking like an underlay here probably because of the pedigree. HIT SHOW has trained poorly for this compared to his stablemates, not sold a son of Candy Ride wants to go this far, and he's flattened out in his last two. Would have been more interesting in the Preakness, but he should get a good enough trip to bid for the lead, just don't think he'll see out the distance.

ARCANGELO has the right pedigree and is on the improve, but he didn't settle very well down the backstretch in the Peter Pan, pulling his way onto heels, then had a tough time of it hauling in the Pletcher benchwarmer. On top of that, his trainer opted to put a short bullet work into him 4 days before the race a la Funny Cide in 2003. With the 3 extra furlongs, his rider is going to have his hands full settling him with a slow tempo up top. Perhaps he'll end up impacting NATIONAL TREASURE'S chances. TAPIT SHOES is inconsistent, hasn't shown he's this caliber, and could have shown he's progressing had they run him in the Peter Pan or Sir Barton. Not sure why they sat on him. Playing musical jockeys and probably only in there because of his sire & to please the ownership. IL MIRACOLO is the presumed pace rival for NATIONAL TREASURE but curiously has never shown speed in a graded stakes race.

Not sure what the hell Rosario was doing with RED ROUTE ONE in the Preakness but it was almost as stupid as putting blinkers on a one-run closer as Asmussen did with this horse in the Arkansas Derby. Asmussen seems to have been looking for participation trophies this spring, running overmatched or out of form horses all over the place. One of his owners needs to buy him a horse that someone else did the foundation work on. If he wants to throw stuff against the wall, should have entered this colt in the Woody Stephens.

FORTE looked vulnerable in the Kentucky Derby when he spun his wheels in the FL Derby before finally getting in gear to tag Mage. The late surge was impressive but was probably dressed up by Mage's own spectacular but early move that made him rubber legged down the lane. On top of this, FORTE was taken out of the Derby because he was physically out of sorts (even if you believe he could have still run a competitive race). They elected not to back off the horse, but weren't able to fit in a prep race, and now he tries 12 furlongs without having raced in over 60 days. In addition, he didn't look particularly good in his final work in company despite the bullet ranking. Could make noise if he's in one piece but I wouldn't expect a peak effort here & it could compromise his chances for the Travers.

Sharp write-up.
Looks like accurate unbiased info.

You've sparked an interest in seeing some of the workout videos. I'm working on glorious Thistle Downs Wednesday racing at the moment, but am eager to get started on the Belmont day card, and feature.

I think Angel of Empire will end up a shorter price than Tapit Trice or even post time favorite. With Mage and Two Phil's out, he's the next best up - and was gaining late in the Derby stretch.

looks like a really good race.

Angel of Empire and Forte are both contenders

Sooo, might we see the great Il Miracolo somehow sitting at 10-1 ? :)

Will there be a race? The smoky sky is bad here in the northeast.

I have to say, I think the 6 and 8 are going to be tough.

The most impressive effort to me was Hit Show in the derby but do have some doubts about the distance.
Red Route Won ran what I thought was the best race of his career in last and since I don't think he's overmatched and surely double digits in here I'll be keying on him.

Usually by the Belmont Stakes, the 3YOs have sorted themselves out a little better than this year, which makes this year a bit more challenging. Questions. We've got the long layoff with Forte, National Treasure with an easy pace win in the Preakness, heavy chalk Angel of Empire with the non-ideal dead-stone closer running style, two horses by Tapit, and four others with Tapit as the broodmare sire, along with the usual "can they go 12 furlongs?" question.

Normally I've got a cold exacta in mind, and I'm looking to fill out the tri and super slots.

This year I'm still looking for a show bet....:pout:

So far looking at the race my plan is to spread in doubles, trying to hit the DD in all three triple crown races. Playing the Belmont similar to the derby by leaving Tapit Trice and Angel of Empire off of all my tickets as overbet, the latter I tried to beat in the Derby as just slowish on my numbers, now the play against him is more about coming off a top and playing to regress a bit back to those slowish numbers not to mention I see no reason to believe the early pace will be anything more than moderate with Bob up front and Forte tracking. Hit Show, I say why not at the price. I'll use him. Big spread for me in the first half of the double though. Barring something silly I'll at least have it 'going'...

Really like Angel of Empire's chances in the Belmont. Tapit Trice likes to come from too far back and Angel of Empire shouldn't have the traffic issues he experienced in the Derby where he came looping around from as far as 7 paths wide to finish up with the vigor that he did. I think that he comes in primed for this one and Forte or Tapit Trice will have to go by him late. I just hope that he stays at 7/2 or maybe even 4 to 1 at Post time!! Fingers crossed.... :)

What do you think of the addition of blinkers to Angel of Empire?

Kind of flirting with disaster IMO. He's handy enough to stay in contact if the pace is slow already. Don't really want to see him changing his running style too much.

It didn't work for Red Route One when he added blinkers 3 back & certainly didn't help him when he changed style & tried to stay close in the Preakness (Rosario also made a stupid early move, too, perhaps still stinging from the criticism of his ride in last year's Preakness).

And a changed in running style didn't help Mage in the Preakness, either. Mage reverted to the stalking style he used in the Fountain of Youth, where he ran one-paced. Not surprisingly, same result at Pimlico.

These trainers need to stay out of the way of their horses and just go with it. If you're that worried about the pace scenario than enter one of your other 200+ horses, preferably one with some speed...

I tend to agree - if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
There's nothing wrong with Angel. He's a two time Graded Stakes winner and he fires every time on dirt.
He will naturally be closer to what will surely be a slower pace (than the Derby) in the Belmont. Blinkers could blunt his late kick.

I worry about his pedigree at 12f too, but that's another discussion altogether.