| Si2see |
02-02-2018 03:13 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by olddaddy
(Post 2270914)
Maybe Im missing something but why cant you just parlay on your own.
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Unless it is some sort of reduced pool, I am with you |
| Denny |
02-02-2018 03:13 PM |
cj,
Agree.
The only way I can see this being a good bet is if a couple of things are done to make it attractive to the player.
1) Offer the bet at a reduced takeout rate - to be determined.
2) Eliminate breakage on each leg of the wager - break to the penny.
Otherwise it's a ripoff bet. You might as well just make your own parlay. At least you would know the odds as each leg came up.
(Why do think professional bookies LOVED offering parlays and round-robins?)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter
(Post 2270921)
You can use that same logic to never make a win bet again. But if you can find 3 horses on a card that you are fairly certain will offer good value I think you will do better keying them together in a parlay/round robin than you will keying them separately with other horses in pick 3's.
Also I assume that rebates will be given on the accumulated bets, so if you hit a nice 4 horse accumalator (as they in GB), you are going to have nice accumulation of rebates on top of your really hefty accumulation of profits.
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My point was to show that linking races is much better to the player in the established pools with one takeout then it is doing a parlay and having multiple takeouts and breakage points applied. I don't see how that is the same logic as saying don't make win bets.
Everything in this game is skewed by rebates, but I can tell you are aren't getting much rebate at all on straight pools in SoCal. |
| olddaddy |
02-02-2018 03:17 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
(Post 2270923)
Well you can but you can't do the odd amounts and such, but you'd also have the option to cash out if you wanted at any time.
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Yea you round up or down , which wont affect the payoff much and like you said you want to cash out or cut back or tac on anytime you want to. Im thinking the only time this bet would be worthwhile if two races are going off at same time. |
| Poindexter |
02-02-2018 03:17 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by olddaddy
(Post 2270914)
Maybe Im missing something but why cant you just parlay on your own.
|
You can, but cannot do it with fractional betting(which as I said, I assume is what they are doing with this). So if I bet a $5 9 horse show parlay on my own, I get back $2.20 on the first horse or $5.50 for my ticket, do I bet the next horse for $5 or $6.
Also in general, if I lay down a $5 wps parlay on 4 horses with the track it gets done, if I don't I personally will never complete it. It is just not that high of a priority for me. So people like me will automatically bet more because the option is there. |
| Cholly |
02-02-2018 03:51 PM |
I don't want any part of this wacky parlay, but I DO want some of whatever it was they were smoking when they thought up this crazy bet.
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| GMB@BP |
02-02-2018 04:44 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny
(Post 2270925)
cj,
Agree.
The only way I can see this being a good bet is if a couple of things are done to make it attractive to the player.
1) Offer the bet at a reduced takeout rate - to be determined.
2) Eliminate breakage on each leg of the wager - break to the penny.
Otherwise it's a ripoff bet. You might as well just make your own parlay. At least you would know the odds as each leg came up.
(Why do think professional bookies LOVED offering parlays and round-robins?)
|
in the new book Betting with an Edge there is a good story about a bookie getting cooked by a really good player doing show parlays. |
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
(Post 2270965)
in the new book Betting with an Edge there is a good story about a bookie getting cooked by a really good player doing show parlays.
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Right, but that was because his bets weren't going in the pools. |
| AltonKelsey |
02-02-2018 05:59 PM |
The notion that betting more (or at all) on horse B because horse A has won, offers no statistical edge.
two payoffs
$10
$10
You bet $2 on the first winner, 10 on the second. Now you have $50
so you now bet 25 times as much on the third horse without regard to any other factor, just that it was third in the sequence.
Better you than me.
|
| Andy Asaro |
02-02-2018 07:14 PM |
Never heard this kind of logic before.
Do you bet to win on the lowest WPS take of any major jurisdiction? Do you do it more than three times per day? Do you do it in non consecutive races?
Then the parlay is a great option.
|
| elhelmete |
02-02-2018 07:32 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
(Post 2270923)
Well you can but you can't do the odd amounts and such, but you'd also have the option to cash out if you wanted at any time.
|
yeah this.
I like to do a show parlay when I bring newbies to the track. They understand it, and it's fun. But we'd probably continue to do it "manually" so we could dump out anytime and I'm not too worried about the odd cents we'd not be able to bet. |
| Bennie |
02-02-2018 07:51 PM |
I used to make bets like this with a book years ago when I worked in a factory. We played what they called if bets. If the first horse won the monies went on the second horse. We did the same with football bets. Use 4 or 5 teams in a parlay. $6 got you back $20 for each winning pair of teams.You have 10 parlays running so you need for 3 teams to cover to break even. I do my own parlays/round robins at the track from time to time when I only like a few races on the day and they are at different tracks.
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| Afleet |
02-02-2018 10:23 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro
(Post 2270761)
6 bets for $5 ??
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common core math |
| fiznow |
02-02-2018 10:59 PM |
Don't know about this one but generally win parlays are a good bet. Youre not forced to play special races in a row like in the DD, Pick3,4,5,6 and so on including crappy maiden clms for example and can select your races. Plus you still can get value on even money favorites. Here in Europe you can play them in horse races with fixed odds. But should work with pool odds as well. Sure you can play selfmade parlays but its kinda complicated, especially when you play more than one horse in a race.
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| mountainman |
02-02-2018 11:16 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
(Post 2270923)
Well you can but you can't do the odd amounts and such, but you'd also have the option to cash out if you wanted at any time.
|
That's why I will never understand sharp players characterizing a pick 4 , for instance, as an opportunity to wager on four races, yet incur just one takeout bite. Apples and oranges. |
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