Florida Derby
 

:1: Shanghai Bobby
:2: Pick of the Litter
:3: Itsmyluckyday
:4: Pontiff
:5: Frac Daddy
:6: Orb
:7: Indy's Illusion
:8: Merit Man
:9: Are You Kidding Me
:10: Narvaez

I'm thinking a repeat of the Holy Bull exacta here... :3: - :1:

:4: Pontiff. Sure, why not.

Haven't looked at PPs yet but my first thought is I'll be looking to beat :3: and :6:

Leaning towards Shug McGaughey horse the #6 Orb. Breeding indicates will like the extra distance and appears the colt is still improving. Hoping for a an honest pace which should benefit Orb r/s. At this point will probably watch more than bet, unless someone else with decent odds pops up on the board that I think has a legitimate shot.

:6: Orb....since I have him in my future wager

Orb looks like a play against. Absolutely perfect trip in last. Shanghai Bobby took the worst of it in the Holy Bull, battling all race on a deep rail.

I don't think the rail was unfavourable on Holy Bull day. From a previous thread linked below, people can see my summary of the evidence from that day which I think refutes the notion.

http://paceadvantage.com/forum/showt...42#post1390542

I watched all the dirt races again, and while I would it wasn't an overwhelming bias, I still believe the rail, especially in the stretch and on the turn, was not the place to be. With the exception of 1-5 Kauai Katie, and Cerro, who wired at 1 1/8 miles, the other winners were several paths off the rail entering, and in the stretch. There may not be a more inside speed setup than 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream, yet off the pace and off the inside were the keys to winning the two 8.5 furlong races on Jan. 26.

Getting back to the subject at hand, if Shanghai Bobby turns the tables on Itsmyluckyday, I will still be convinced that the inside trip cost SB in the Holy Bull. If not, I may have re-think the track may have been neutral.

Being outside in the stretch usually has more to do with the purpose of finding racing room than with trying to hit a favourable "strip."

As I had noted, two romping winners that were a few paths off of the rail in the stretch, only switched to the outside for racing room nearing the stretch after being on the rail for the early and middle portions of the race. The jocks switched outside not because the rail was deep but because they had a ton of horse and just needed a clear path. As a group, horses with partially/entirely inside trips didn't underperform that day.

My early opinions for each Fla Derby horse:

:1: Shanghai Bobby-- got the right draw given his style and I like his pattern for taking another step forward, although I think that additional yardage beyond about a mile is likely not in his favour. Should give another good account of himself but I think someone will probably get him in the last furlong.

:2: Pickofthelitter-- he'll get some money because of the 95 Beyer but winning a four-horse maiden race is rarely a lead-in to victory in one of the major preps.

:3: Itsmyluckyday-- the probable favourite and if he runs back to his last couple he'll probably win again although two big efforts in a row in early 3YO campaign is not infrequently a harbinger of a regression, especially with a trainer who is a solid local guy but not someone who's had a lot of success at the very highest levels of racing. Not a favourite that I'd really care to bet on or against.

:4: Pontiff-- I can't make any case for this horse.

:5: Frac Daddy-- good races so far came at Churchill and CD form doesn't necessarily translate at GP; witness his first try at GP. Besides, my feeling is that this guy is more likely to do his best running on the grass. Unlikely though not impossible. I think he'll beat Pontiff, at least.

:6: Orb-- as Valuist noted, Orb got a nice setup last time compared to the average closer. But he beat a useful horse and he's a nicely bred, improving animal in a good barn. Will need things to go his way again.

:7: Indy's Illusion-- speed/pace figures and class line say "no."

:8: Merit Man-- will be back to sprinting in short order.

:9: Are You Kidding Me-- that's what I might be saying if he wins. Serious surface/ability questions. But hey, he might very well beat Pontiff, too!

:10: Narvaez-- class/figures/distance/post = nope.

Doesn't look like a betting race for me.

Tough to go against the :1: and :3: here, a good longshot play would be the :5: at 25s or so.

top 5
 

:1: Shanghai Bobby - The fact that he lost last time to IMLD should help his odds a little. He galloped out very well in the Holy Bull. All things considered, the HB was a fair race. SB had the rail(however you want to weight that factor), but with the 1 1/16 track configuration(and the 9F too) the inside is also a benefit. I won't be surprised if he wins, but I have him as 3rd best.

:2: Pick of the Litter - I have him 4th best, as well as the biggest chance of displacing a chalk for an in-the-money finish. Showed ability to leave from the gate, take back, and finish strong in mdn win.

:3: Itsmyluckyday - most athletic, arguably most talented runner. I'm not 100% sure he is a 9F horse. Most likely to impress or disappoint.

:5: Frac Daddy - Draw a line through his Holy Bull race. The fact that a ton went wrong should help his odds. Unfortunately, he has never in his career appeared to be at the level of the big three. 5th contender.

:6: Orb - Top contender. Classy style. Early pace figs in Fountain of Youth are competitive with Shanghai Bobby and Itsmyluckyday's early pace figs in the Holy Bull. Biggest concern is holding or improving form. Ideally would improve on the the final 1/16th in the FOY.

Let's see if the Gulfstream wunderkind moves forward or regresses although it appears to be his race to win or lose

Orb
Itsmyluckyday
Bobby

.

Absolutely. Over Pick of the Litter and It's My Lucky Day. :cool:

The more I watch the replays on Jan. 26, the less I'm convinced that bias had a major role in the outcome of the Holy Bull. Even if the rail was a little bit deep, the short run to the turn and the short stretch run are such a benefit to the inside speed horses, that I have to hold that against Shanghai Bobby.

If he doesn't win, he isn't going to be in the exacta, and maybe not even in the trifecta, either.

:9: Are You Kidding Me


Never ran on the dirt and maybe Attfield is just taking a flyer but he usually doesnt place a horse where it doesnt belong.