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- - jocks - how much importance do you give to them (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=175372)

Half Smoke

03-27-2023 05:47 AM

jocks - how much importance do you give to them

.

I haven't seen a lot of discussion of jocks here

maybe I just missed it

for example - let's say you thought a horse was fair value at 3/1

but then there is a jockey change

and Irad Ortiz Jr. is out because he's sick with the flu -

and a middle of the pack jock is now up

and it's a 2 turn race on dirt with 12 horses - and the horse is a closer

how would that effect your estimation of fair odds__________?

.

lamboguy

03-27-2023 06:13 AM

i pay more attention to the Jockey Agent than i do to the Jockey.

Johnny V

03-27-2023 09:48 AM

I pay a little more attention to the jockey in turf races. Also depending on what specific track I am handicapping I might pay a little more attention to the rider in some cases.

ranchwest

03-27-2023 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lamboguy (Post 2866593)

i pay more attention to the Jockey Agent than i do to the Jockey.

Good point. The agent and the trainer select jockeys and that is what puts them on winners. Certainly some jockeys are better than others (oh, I wish I could see Shoe ride one more time), but they need a good mount.

46zilzal

03-27-2023 12:17 PM

What do horses do after they've thrown their rider? Continue around the track , usually wide, with the group

shout1966

03-27-2023 12:20 PM

i pay attention more to the low percentage riders who effect a horses performance day in and day out and then also look for rider switches to which these riders come off of horses and jockeys who are top jockeys climb aboard

Nitro

03-27-2023 07:51 PM

I’ll follow the jockeys when they do the running.
Then again, I don’t follow the horses (runners) either.

I follow the only factor that has real meaning in this game: The Betting Action.
All that’s necessary is the realization that the value of money is the primary motivation, and the ability to evaluate the betting patterns in real time.

ReplayRandall

03-27-2023 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2866721)

I’ll follow the jockeys when they do the running.
Then again, I don’t follow the horses (runners) either.

I follow one of the factors that has real meaning in this game: The Betting Action.
All that’s necessary is the realization that the value of money is the primary motivation, and the ability to evaluate the betting patterns in real time.

FTFY...

Nitro

03-27-2023 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall (Post 2866722)

FTFY...

Perhaps that’s necessary from your perspective, but there was definitely no need to fix my statement.
I’ll stand by my personal preferences:

Quote:

I follow the only factor that has real meaning in this game: The Betting Action

Tote Analysis for Race #7 – Santa Anita – Mon 2-27-23

Code:



7        NAME                 ML        OPEN        3m        PP        PT        3m        5m        8m        12m        FIN

1        Getthemoney        1.8        5.0        4.5        1        80        79        67        73        78        3

2        Coffee inBed        1.2        1.0        0.8        2        120        208        178        105        141        2

3        Liberal Lady        8.0        10.0        12.0        3        130        117        120        120        119        4

4        Lily Poo        3.5        3.5        3.5        4        152        83        99        102        92        

5        Anywho                8.0        3.5        4.5        5        79        72        68        70        66        1

6        Clasymadmoselle        20.0        21.0        22.0        6        232        239        236        196        164        

0        0                0.0        ####         0      0        115        142        129        99        108        PAR

RESULTS
POS # Horse...............Win........Place.......Show
1st: 5 Anywho..........$11.80.....$4.60.......$3.60
2nd: 2 Coffee In Bed................$3.00.......$2.10
3rd: 1 Getthemoney................................$3.00
4th: 3 Liberal Lady
5th: 4 Lily Poo
6th: 6 Classymademoiselle
.
.

Mdnspecialist

03-27-2023 09:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2866721)

Does this method point to any horses over 10-1? Or does it generally show drastic moves in the betting action on lower priced horses?

iamt	03-27-2023 09:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2866728)

Perhaps that’s necessary from your perspective, but there was definitely no need to fix my statement.
I’ll stand by my personal preferences:

Tote Analysis for Race #7 – Santa Anita – Mon 2-27-23

Code:



7    NAME             ML    OPEN    3m    PP    PT    3m    5m    8m    12m    FIN

1    Getthemoney    1.8    5.0    4.5    1    80    79    67    73    78    3

2    Coffee inBed    1.2    1.0    0.8    2    120    208    178    105    141    2

3    Liberal Lady    8.0    10.0    12.0    3    130    117    120    120    119    4

4    Lily Poo    3.5    3.5    3.5    4    152    83    99    102    92    

5    Anywho            8.0    3.5    4.5    5    79    72    68    70    66    1

6    Clasymadmoselle    20.0    21.0    22.0    6    232    239    236    196    164    

0    0        0.0    ####     0      0    115    142    129    99    108    PAR

If you had discovered this system where tote prices is all you need, surely you would have mentioned it before instead of sidetracking this thread with it.

Mdnspecialist

03-27-2023 09:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2866728)

Code:



7        NAME                 ML        OPEN        3m        PP        PT        3m        5m        8m        12m        FIN

1        Getthemoney        1.8        5.0        4.5        1        80        79        67        73        78        3

2        Coffee inBed        1.2        1.0        0.8        2        120        208        178        105        141        2

3        Liberal Lady        8.0        10.0        12.0        3        130        117        120        120        119        4

4        Lily Poo        3.5        3.5        3.5        4        152        83        99        102        92        

5        Anywho                8.0        3.5        4.5        5        79        72        68        70        66        1

6        Clasymadmoselle        20.0        21.0        22.0        6        232        239        236        196        164        

0        0                0.0        ####         0      0        115        142        129        99        108        PAR

I had the 45-1 wire to wire winner in the race before yours. Contest max is $42. Horse paid $93.60. Last two picks were just block picks.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/1...922/mooIZy.jpg

cj	03-27-2023 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2866721)

Why do you do this? Someone asked about jockeys. If you have nothing to add, simply add nothing. It is actually rude.

cj	03-27-2023 10:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj (Post 2866745)

Why do you do this? Someone asked about jockeys. If you have nothing to add, simply add nothing. It is actually rude.

And now you've derailed a thread once again. You want to talk about tote action, start a thread.

Nitro

03-27-2023 10:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iamt (Post 2866742)

If you had discovered this system where tote prices is all you need, surely you would have mentioned it before instead of sidetracking this thread with it.

It certainly does, but I'm sorry the moderators have cautioned me about discussing it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by iamt (Post 2866742)

If you had discovered this system where tote prices is all you need, surely you would have mentioned it before instead of sidetracking this thread with it.

Where have you been? It’s been mentioned quite often, but I could only wish that I developed it myself. Sorry for offering my personal preferences on such a vital handicapping thread.

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