Cotillion Stakes
 

A clash of the best three-year-old fillies in the land: Songbird, Cathryn Sophia, and Carina Mia! Who will get it done?

Post time is about 4:55 PM EDT Saturday.

:1: Carina Mia
:2: Cathryn Sophia
:3: Disco Rose
:4: Land Over Sea
:5: Songbird
:6: Queena Esther

Six...That's all Parx could draw for this?.....

This is not a real racetrack. I will be checking for today's BIAS as they go along.

I have a weird feeling Sat is the day she loses. Parx is a sewer infested slimehole and crazy things can happen there.

I see the 1 or less likely the 2 making Songbird work and the other sitting garden spot for a suck up win.

There's not a long list of horses lining up to face Songbird. This is the best 3 y.o filly field of the year, even with just 6 horses.

I think it sucks that Parx can offer a purse of that size then a million for the PA Derby when realistically the on track handle will be less than 20% of the purses for those two races.

I think you added a zero by accident. 2% :lol: :lol: :lol:

I could have.. Let me check....
Ok. Last year Parx contested the Cotillion and PA Derby on the same day....
Total purses was roughly $2.9 million.
Ontrack handle was $544k.....
Handle on track was 27% of the purse total offered for the PA Derby and Cotillion.
And just 18.7% of the total purse money for the day.
All sources handle was $5.3 million.
Handle on the PA derby was $1.5 million
For the Cotillion, $800k
Combined the handle on those races was barely over the purses. At an avg of 22% take out, (30% on all vertical with more than two positions in the bet and all horizontal wagers), the track lost money on the day's races.
Of course the obvious is the casino handle covered it.

I was going to say the same thing. Which horses would make this a better race? Even though there's only six horses, there's still a lot of quality.

Have people always whined about small fields in big races this much? It's not exactly a new phenomenon.

Hasn't every day been the day she would lose? First Tap to It and Rachel's Valentina would beat her at the Breeders' Cup, then Carina Mia would beat her in the CCAO, then the ten furlongs would beat her in the Alabama...

Obviously anything can happen, but I wouldn't count on a loss.

I sincerely appreciate the math.

I was just being silly my friend...

Don't mind me.

You are 99.99999% right..I am sure some people said she was a mortal cinch in some of her races.

I just think , as this is her BC prep, combined with this not being a real racetrack (funky silly biases and quirks) that this is the 1 race to play against her.


For the record. I am a fan of Songbird. She won me over recently. Nice beautiful animal

They said the same thing about Tepin in the Million---just a prep race for BC :lol: :lol:

Carina Mia is better than Cathryn Sophia anyway, besides they would have a better shot with Paco in the irons rather than Castellano.

The way this race will shape is that only Disco Rose will go with Songbird and by the time they'll try to make a move, Songbird should be gone. Only Carina Mia has the speed to go with her, but, there is zero chance that Mott will employ this strategy again.

This is pure falsehood. Form holds true at Parx. I find plenty of winners at square prices here.

On the big day, Parx has been pretty speed friendly. The Cotillion and the Derby have been very formful if memory serves.

Checking the list of winners it doesn't look like much crazy stuff has been happening:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cotillion_Handicap

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania_Derby

I do remember one funny story. Remember when Angel Cordero tried to ride some Pletcher horse that was the favorite long after he had retired? It was sadly comical...Indian Vale maybe?

Wasn't there a dead rail recently on one of their major days? I believe 2014?