NHC Day 1 Leaderboard Top 25
 

https://www.ntra.com/



1 Colin Cummings-1 165.90
1 Sean OMalley-1 165.90
3 Christopher Goodall-1 154.80
4 Jason Lane-1 148.70
5 Mike McIntyre-1 146.90
6 William Haliziw-1 145.90
7 Mark Wilgard-1 144.10
8 Scott Cavalieri-1 142.50
9 Jeff Bussan-1 138.70
10 Steve Nemetz-2 138.00
11 Brendan Fay-2 137.70
12 Kevin Kilroy-1 137.60
13 John Vail-1 135.80
14 Justin Mustari-1 135.70
15 Jeff Joffrion-2 134.70
16 Mike Yarusso-2 133.70
17 Jason Albano-1 133.50
18 Sally Goodall-2 132.20
19 Greg Bettinelli-1 131.20
20 Joseph Clancey-1 129.70
21 Travis Allison-1 129.10
22 Jason Phillips-1 128.70
23 Jay Johns-2 127.90
24 Jeff VanDrie-1 127.50
25 Jose Arias-1 126.80

Not sure how many races are left, but as of 6:55 p.m Central time Sunday Jose Arias is in the top spot, leading by 70 cents! Arias won the NHC Championship in 2014. Will he be the first to do it twice?

Screenshot of the NHC2021 Leaderboard last updated as of 4:53 pm Pacific --

Click the thumbnail below --


-jp

.

2 races left. 8th at Golden Gate and 8th at Del Mar.

Lookin like Justin Mustari wins it with the 19-1 winner in the 8th at Del Mar. Good for him.

19-1 and coming off a pretty long layoff, if I heard correctly. I'd calculated that Justin needed at least a 12-1 shot to take the lead. Looking forward to hearing what drew him to the winner.

VERY nicely done.

Needed a price horse to win it. Picked the right one and leapfrogged the top three.


-jp
.

he just said on TVG that he actually didn't like the horse
but needed at least a 12-1 horse and seemed most logical

It's better to be lucky, than good.

interview at 2:45

Jose Arias might agree!

Skill and luck. Need both

Jose only had 7 mandatory races to worry about at the Final Table...

Yet he missed his bet for Saratoga's 10th Race, believe it or not.

There's no question Jose's got the skill. To come that close to winning his 2nd championship speaks for itself!

I saw it had "No Bet" listed for that race. I wonder what happened?

That seems.. not great. So if you're the leader in the tournament you're basically fading every longshot that one of the trailers will probably latch onto?


I know nothing about handicapping tournaments but I would try something where the live results are obscured for the last few races, or blocks of races, however that works.

That is something the leaders have to deal with as part of their strategy. It looks like the top two or three were trying to eek out a win with shorter priced horses. They guy in second had to try to pick a horse that the leader didn't have if he was gonna win. It seems like it was a lucky stab but every player at the final table was trying to do the same thing.

100% agreed. The big tourney shows the live money results which changes the way someone would normally handicap and especially bet on a race. Obviously those still alive towards the end take shots they would normally not take and win the tourney on one obscure pic. How about they need to enter all of their pics at the beginning of the contest? In any event congrats to the dude for winning the contest!

then after 80% of the contest they'd be at the same point as live betting, but less contestants would be 'alive'
(much of the field would already be eliminated while their pre-selected picks are now worthless)


It's a contest. All players know and are aware of the rules and placings... some strategy and luck is involved.

Sure, these guys know it's part of the strategy, they take it into account, but, does it have to be that way? Wouldn't it be better if it was just about handicapping?



It seems like the leader gets put in a very disadvantageous situation. Of course sometimes the chalk wins and the leader holds on, I get that. But crucially, everyone behind the leader at the end has far more information than the leader had at any juncture. They know what they need to overtake him and bet accordingly. The tournament situation dictates their bets, they're not purely handicapping any more.



Is it not the case that if a longshot wins at the end of one of these, it's likely that the incumbent leader was surpassed? Because everyone in striking distance was correctly playing the bombers? I feel like the result of that race is actually too influential in the final outcome, because again, the bettors have so much information.



I stand by the idea that, not for the whole thing, but, for the final 'stretch run' of these tournaments, the results should not be publicized until the races are over, unless someone can tell me why that's a bad idea. And I'm happy to be told I'm wrong, I'm curious to learn more. I would like to take part in an event like this someday.

It depends on what you consider "stabbing". Are you advocating lowering the limit to 5 or 10-1 on the final day?

Although I haven't had much online presence or activity in a while, I believe I was the highest PA finisher.

I can tell you one thing, I was playing for the win, and landing on a lot of horses other people weren't, ultimately they were just running flat a few thirds and fourths, then I had one winner and one 2nd at 11-1 which would have been a lot different outcome if that horse does win I was the only one with the horse.

All in all great time for this NHC Rookie ( while true, it was the 14th Vegas tournament I qualified for, I literally just couldn't ever qualify outright for NHC so I had to switch approach and get in with tour points this year )

Jason

Correct me if I'm wrong but I got the feeling that there weren't a lot of big (15-1 or higher) prices coming in especially in the mandatory races.

Andy,

I still have to analyze and review all of my plays and the race outcomes but, but I caught the 27-1 winner at woodbine on day 1. I had the horse at 3:45am ( still on East Coast time at that point ) when I woke up and started handicapping the Woodbine card.

The final table you are 100% correct other than the last race. I can tell you that I had the 11-1 1 horse at Delmar, it held second, and I was the only one at the final table with the horse so if it wins different story but that is the nature of the beast everyone has the " if this horse just could have won " story..

Ultimately I had a stellar finish for what was honestly just three days of solid handicapping, however never once did I catch fire, I hit more winners most weeks this time of year or Keeneland just playing cash and online qualifiers at home than I did at Bally's

IF anyone cares I will post how many 1st 2nd 3rd 4th finishers that I had last week once I review it all.

Jason

Thanks for the information. And good luck in the future

Would love if you can post your picks...

I watched the result boards all weekend....

Those final few races is where the strategy had to kick in ....

Question: what tools do you use?

thxs

Assuming it is Jason Phillips, he did take home the automatic berth to NHC 2022 for being the highest finishing STATS Race Lens subscriber - so we can be pretty sure about ONE tool! :)

Again - so cool that two PA board members finished in the Top 10!!!

Thank you, and so cool yes I am Jason Phillips, curious what Afleet name is as I met most of the final table members, and if you say you were not nervous at all either then I know at least one guy you are NOT because I thought he was going to fall out a few times he all but said he was going to :D. I also wore my old Colonial Downs trucker hat at final table.

Yes I used Stats Race Lens, NOT for my handicapping. The reason I bought Stats program before going, and tweaked it some at Colonial the week before I flew out because I hadn't used it since my last Vegas contest which had to be HPWS 2019 I think, is because Stats is a terrific contest prep tool and so much time savings, I load certain angles or race types so it flags and I know to be sure not to miss that race or horse. It is also fantastic because you can customize a lot of the program to your liking however you prefer the info displayed highlighted, etc. Lastly, you can watch the replays with a click of a button right on the horse running line just click the date and replay comes up within a second.

However, I have used Brisnet pps for years, straight up pencil and paper style handicapping but on my computer. I am self taught since 17 years old ( 19 years now ) and I have been developing my game ever since. I have to give a massive shout out to one of my best friend's Mike ( aka PICSIX ). For years around the Richmond area I was known as one of the best turf handicappers around, that is due to teaching myself at Colonial..... However I was horrible at dirt racing other than the stakes races. Mike knew this and thought it was because I might be seeing the races and landing on closers like I normally would on turf, and we learned it's because I had trouble really seeing speed or lack of speed in a race, so he helped me work on that for a few years.

Ultimately I have said for years, maybe on here even, that I can handicap with anyone on any given day. I am not scared to go against a single person in the room in these style tournaments. Ultimately the horses have to run regardless, and if they do it is all about making the least amount of mistakes as possible. If they don't run that contest weekend it really doesn't matter anyway.

Jason

Congratulations! I was really nervous at the end Saturday. I was calmer on Sunday-at least i thought I was:). I've never seen stat lens, but I knew they were promoting the highest finisher using stat lens gets $10k-I was tempted to try it. I dont know if we spoke. Due to covid iwasnt sure whether to shake peoples hands. I did say to Sarah she always beats me in the contests

Yes I met Sarah for first time at final table as well but her and I have a mutual friend Michael at Old Friends who I am sure is waiting on a check from each of us :D

I believe we briefly spoke for a quick second you told me you were so tired and exhausted from all of it and I said that’s how I felt Saturday all day ( plus I couldn’t breathe with the dry heat in Virginia it’s humid I never thought I would miss that but I did ). I wore the colonial Downs hat at the final table

I was like you though, more nervous just about making it. Friday I finished 23rd overall, Saturday moved up to 10th overall, Sunday 8th. Ultimately was just three solid days of handicapping for me but I never caught fire once. I had several horses at final table nobody else had or 1 other at the most. One of those horses was 1 at 11-1 dmr I was the only one to cash in that race at all he finished second. Ultimately what did me in was the golden gate race. My 4 horse went very very wide ( table mates said he broke slow also ) and ran 4th, however three people passed me with the 6 at 7-2 or 3 at 5-1 place. I also had 9-1 Saratoga run 4th nobody else had.

Ultimate if Vic checks out this thread also , I have mixed reviews about Bally’s.

The drinks were no problem our table just threw all tickets in middle of table from wagering throughout day and we never paid for a single drink.

The room was old outdated and I think it added to my breathing issues. I had dry blood in my nose all weekend it was horrible.

The casino although I was rarely there was very Smokey , unlike the Venetian which I walked to three times throughout the week to eat.

However , the staff at Bally’s was by far the best hospitality I have ever experienced in my life. Every staff member tournament or non tournament treated me like royalty from day 1, they were fantastic

I am excited to be back in without having to spend another dime for 2022 as that saves some people thousands alone trying to qualify. I will focus on some cash qualifiers or maybe a few last minute bcbc attempts over the next few weeks, keeneland and Breeders cup is where most of my cash handle comes from each year also so I am excited to really hear up for my time of year in horse racing

Jason

The NTRA makes everyone's picks for the whole contest available in a CSV file at some point, at least they did last year.

Yes they have already , I had so many run 1st - 4th I will calculate them all myself this weekend.

Afleet, the final table picture was just emailed , were you in the Daily Racing form hat ? If so I did not have the pleasure of meeting you.

thx MD but I cant seem to find much on stats or picks

still searching

Churchill doesn't deserve this...

they are a disgrace to the sport

and of course they will comply....more money in their pockets!!

With CDI, it's not about whether there's MORE money or not - there almost always is. It's about whether that "more" is ENOUGH more in the CDI bean counters' eyes. If the resources committed to making/enforcing any such agreement could be earning a 0.00000001% greater ROI by being committed elsewhere - it's a no go.

I just calculated all of my plays over the 3 days.

52 plays

8 wins, off odds were 27-1 , 8-1 , 5-1 , 6-1 , 5-1 , 8-1 , 7-1 , 3-1

9 seconds , off odds were 21-1 , 6-5 , 9-2 , 8-1 , 5-2 , 10-1 , 3-1 , 19-1 , 9-1

Then I count 3rd and 4ths also for any large tournament that I place.
5 thirds , 7 fourths

Jason

Hi Jason and nice going...

From this it looks like betting favorites are not in your cards...??