Blue Grass Stakes
 

Once again we have three horses as clear favorites just like the Arkansas and Florida Derby and are left with eight longshots. This race will wind up with the exact same odds as the Arkansas race with Sierra Leone at 8-5, Dornoch at 2-1 and Just a Touch at 3-1. The big thing to keep in mind is Gargan just said Dornoch has to learn to rate and that will be the plan here. So he won't be on the lead unless he is lying or the jockey forgets the instructions.

:1: Top Conor 15-1 ML He ain't no Taiba I can tell you that, because that is the kind of horse it takes for a three year old to go into a grade 1 mile and an eighth off of one career race. It simply can't be done unless you are immensely talented and this one isn't. TOSS

:2: Be You 8-1 ML He may take some play being a Pletcher/Repole horse but his last two maiden races going long leave a lot to be desired. I guess you can make a case for him in the ass end of the super but a couple others look better to finish off the super. Difficult to see him hitting the tri.

:3: Seize the Grey 20-1 ML Six straight races being in the super is a plus and he should like the distance out of Arrogate. He is one of several that can run in the back end of the super and his price will be huge. The problem is his Brisnet speed figures are all over the place, starting with 51, 89, 72, 86, 74, 92, 87.

:4: Dornoch 3-1 ML Remember what Gargan said, that Dornoch will run a lot stronger next race, well here it is. He came from behind at the beginning of his career and if he can rate then he has an excellent chance at winning. He beat absolutely nothing in the FOY as the second and third place horses ran up the track in the Florida Derby. I see a huge race! THE PICK

:5: Good Magic 20-1 He isn't getting away with 116.1 fractions this time. Ortiz took the :1: over this one. Both are Brown horses so that should tell you about this ones chances of getting a part of it. TOSS

:6: Just a Touch 7-2 ML Both of his races were in the slop so we don't know whether he will improve, stay the same, or regress on a fast track. He worked a bullet on the fast track at Keenland two weeks ago and is out of Justify so he should like the dry track. Hard to see him out of the super as his Brisnet figures are on par with Dornoch. Can't argue with anyone who picks him to win.

:7: Lat Long 30-1 ML Six for six in the money and has run against some good horses. His race at Keenland was solid behind Dornoch being on the lead which isn't his style. I could see him running fourth at a huge number.

:8: Epic Ride 20-1 ML All his races have been at Turfway but he seems to work well on the dirt, including a 59 at Keenland two weeks ago. Lost the lead to the :11: last race and now it is a longer distance. Has a chance to be in the tri or super with another move forward.

:9: Mugatu 30-1 ML We come to the third and final horse that I don't see as having any chance hitting the top four. Got buried by the :8: and :11: two back and his two dirt races are nothing to write home about. TOSS

:10: Sierra Leone 2-1 ML The rematch with Dornoch is upon us and can't argue with anyone thinking he comes out on top this time. Impressed that he closed into slow fractions last time. Definite win candidate but I don't like dead closers to do it back to back. In the super seems almost certain.

:11: Encino 12-1 ML Another with all his races at Turfway. His running style is God knows what. Huge closer, then wire to wire and then middle of the pack. His two workouts at Keenland weren't fast so maybe he prefers the fake crap. Post a drawback but his Brisnet numbers are improving from 78, 83, 91 so that is a positive sign. Another that could be in the super but others seem just a bit more playable for the fourth spot.

Like I said I am picking the :4: to win but I would be careful of playing the favorites to run 1-2-3. They almost always don't and there are enough decent horses that one of them may step up big time and run third. Deepest field of the three preps Saturday.

:5: Good Magic is in this race? I'll pick the older horse going against 3YOs in this part of the year!

I think all the horses that have won on dirt in this race are beatable. Just a touch gave up all kinds of ground in the Gotham and still ran on for second. Epic Ride had every reason to win the Battaglia, but Encino came on for the win. I'll go with an exacta box :6::11:

Agree, this is arguably the deepest field we've seen in this Triple Crown season. Maybe you can punt the :9: Mugatu from Exotic tickets, but you gotta make tough decisions when building vertical tickets in this one.

Did the :2: Be You run a coming of age race in his 2nd start as a 3YO and make the 'jump' necessary to really move forward and contend with the best of his 3YO peers? He has ran against a number of top end 3YOs to date, just never beaten any of them while being competitive. Is he now ready to take them on?

Obviously :4: Dornoch and :10: Sierra Leone are going to take a lot of money, and deservedly so. But this is no picnic for either, and nobody should be shocked if they both finish out of the Exacta.


:6: Just a Touch in his 3rd career race could be fully cranked for the Cox barn, and needs to be in order to get into the Derby gate next month. With zero current Derby points, he has to finish 1st/2nd to get that chance.

I'm a little partial to the Turfway invaders in :8: Epic Ride and :11: Encino being very much in the mix here, and they'll be on my tickets.

Looking forward to this one.

Be You :2: has only a maiden win in his six races but it came in his most recent outing at Gulfstream. He keeps Irad Ortiz, Jr. and if he gets a rail position after the start and stays within 3 or 4 lengths down the backside, he'll have a chance to swing wide on the turn and make a big closing run to take it all.

I'll key him top and bottom to Sierra Leone :10: Just A Touch :6: and Seize the Grey :3:. Seize the Grey has a chance to upset this field at a price as he defeated Dornoch :4: the only time they met, a MSW sprint in the slop at Saratoga last summer.

in todays races at keeneland, anything that went to the front and made it to the rail won on the dirt. also everything was closing along the backstretch and far turn on the rail. there were a lot of great notes today that they gave you for future reference.

the only problem is you don't know if the golden rail will repeat itself Saturday. but you will get a good idea after a few races.

SHOUT IT TRUE, ran a monster her first time out from post 12. this horse is probably unbeatable in her next race. you can certainly question the quality of the other horses in her race, but you can't question her!

the other great race was the one that AMOR FATI ran in. the rider looked at the pace numbers before the race and figured he would send her to the front and get an easy lead. Louis Saez sent her, but she couldn' t clear today! next time she catches a fair track, she should gallop at a better price than she was today.

I appreciate these write-ups that you and PoFL do, and some others have done in the past. A beautiful thing about racing is that everyone's opinion of a race matters in some sense, and yours are as valid as those of people paid to have one. :ThmbUp:

Big day today....I have to start studying. :coffee:

I agree 100% much appreciation to the OP and others. There are many good handicappers out here and I enjoy hearing the various opinions (pros and cons).

Good luck today! After a long work week I'm going to visit my mom and celebrate my son's birthday this morning so no time to handicap. Looking forward to watching these prep races afterward though. The Epic horse is quick, seems keen to go, doesn't appear to really want to be back in the second flight. He might put a dent into the other speed horses chances but who knows. Longer race so a couple might go to rating.

:6: win
:3: 3rd&4th key maybe even 2nd on a lean ticket.

Both :4: and :10: are somewhat risky...
4= 2back rival Sierra outmoved him before hanging. Last race looked stiff in victory.
10= somewhat subject to pace&flow.
No surprise if all Chalk run great; but I'll pass on tickets if I think they all do.

Multi&Win :6:
Ex 6 w/ 1, 3,11
Tri= 6/1,2,4,10,11/3
Tri = 1,4,10,11/6/3
50c su = 6 / 1,11 / 4,10 / 3 $2
30c su = 6 / 4,10 / 1,11 / 3 $1.20

Happy Birthday to your Son. I hope that he has a wonderful Birthday!! Also, if you get a few in today wishing you excellent fortune in your wagers. Have a terrific weekend.

Vinnie :)

:4:Dornoch, :10:Sierra Leone, :6:Just a Touch

Thank you very much, just read that the :11: is scratched and will point to the Lexington.

The lead is where you want to be today. Even the longshots hang on for second

1 turn sprints.

Wouldn't be banking on it holding for 2 turns.