How many U.S. tracks/circuits will be running full meetings in 2028?
 

Full meeting" is defined to be 50 or more racing dates OR at least eight consecutive weeks.

My OPINION is that there will be ten:
NYRA
SoCal
Miami Florida
Kentucky
Texas
Bush Lousiana (DeD EvD)
Fair Grounds
Oaklawn
Tampa
Turf Paradise



The rest may run short meetings to keep licenses, breeding programs, or whatever else, but no extended meetings.

I see Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, and West Virginia all vanishing from existence. North California will be fairs-only. Hawthorne might run a couple of meetings per year (Arlington is headed to commercial development when Mr. Duchossois is gone).

The reason?
1) Greedy gaming companies tired of subsidizing racing.

2) Revenue-hungry states that will only-too-gladly allow decoupling, in return for an extra percent or two of tax and/or more revenue to tax without racing eating up income. It's a win-win for the states and gaming companies. Not so good for the horsemen.

3) Idiotic management, which never got its head out of where the sun doesn't shine, and instead continued --- up to the end --- to live in the 1950's.

You're welcome to a different view.

My goal is to be able to attend any meeting in 2028.

Monmouth will have winter racing by then

NYRA will be running 2 furlong sprint races for NYSB who have never finished 3 races.

GP, in 2028, will still waiting for post time for the last race on 12/31/2027.

The Breeders Cup, at Great Barrington Fair, will be run over 6 weekends from May to December.

The Triple Crown, now for 4yos, will be contested at the gruelling distances of 5.5F, 6.0F, and the demanding and inhumane 7.0F. The races will be run in May, September, and December.

Why are you calling gaming companies "greedy"?
Their profits are determined by percentages charged on their games.
If their rates sucked, then they'd be out of business quick.

Horse racing is the real "greedy" one here. Has been for a long time.
They charge higher rates than anyone, all the while taking money from the gaming company to pay for purses!

Greedy is right.
Two more payments and that Beer I had at Toga three years ago is all mine! :p

Tom, Do you still have that beer?

Yes he does, and I challenge you to try and drink it.:D

Negative nightrider, the pattern is full!!!!!!!!!

You didn't mention the single most important cause of all the contraction, which is simulcasting. Simulcasting killed the mid-level racetrack.

Exactly! And now they want a piece of sports betting to pay for purses.

Original post didn't mention Maryland. It will be around. Breeding is big there.

that place is the biggest cinch to be around out of all of them. also i think Oaklahoma and Indiana are pretty solid as well.

I think most tracks will be around.

There may be some more consolidation in regions. Like Florida has been doing and Stronach will close Pimlico, but shift to Laurel to take it's place.

If the casino dole gets pulled they'll look to state governments to keep them going. They'll convince government that horseracing creates jobs and keeps green space.

There's other ways to fund purses like historical racing and similar gimmicks.

Purses may get lower. The horsemen will have to deal.

Virginia is getting back in the game soon. They'll get the breeding going.

Do you think they'd be getting back into it if they thought it would die in a few years.

There's big money in this sport - it's not going away.

Maryland was on life support before the casino money started rolling in.

west Virginia

Monmouth/Meadowlands

Prairie Meadows

Pennsy

New Mexico

Virginia will be up and running in 2028

Georgia will also be up and running

washington and Oregon will also run

I voted 21+

Allan

I think it will still be over 20 too. Maybe not a lot over 20, but at least that many. Other than (maybe) Saratoga, any track that still runs a full meeting will be a racebook/racino/instant gaming/horse racing location, or will own those locations.

I also just voted 21+.

States have multiple tracks. My vote is based on 40 days for a meet.

(Saratoga has to count. So does Del Mar.)

Mountaineer will be renamed Eldorado Downs and conduct a six-week boutique meet.

Can we do one on Harness tracks?

Yonkers was sold yesterday to MGM.

What does that mean?

And video killed the radio star

Ritvo threatening to close Golden Gate today.

Jeremy Balan‏Verified account @BH_JBalan

Ritvo emphasized he wants to run year-round at Golden Gate Fields. He doesn't want to close, and wants to run more dates. He just doesn't want to be a part of what he feels is a NOTWINC deal that is losing money.



Subject: Baedecker fires back at Ritvo. Says accusations "not accurate".

Everyone knows how I feel about Baedecker. He’s not up to the job and never has been.

We never quit,

A

Jeremy Balan‏Verified account @BH_JBalan

CHRB's exec. director Rick Baedeker calls Tim Ritvo's accusations "not accurate." One of Ritvo's claims is that the CHRB has communicated to CARF that GGF's summer dates could be filled by the fairs, but Baedeker said that was only in preparation, should GGF not get approved.

Subject: Balan speaks to Ritvo. Ritvo threatening to close over NOTWINC Dispute


Tim Ritvo says the meeting w/horsemen at Golden Gate Fields tomorrow will be about the Northern California Off-Track Wagering, Inc. network. Ritvo said the CHRB is threatening not to approve GGF's license if it doesn't agree to NOTWINC. Ritvo is threatening to close GGF.

Subject: Urgent Meeting at Golden Gate Fields.....WITH REGARD TO THE FUTURE OF GOLDEN GATE FIELDS.

Golden Gate Press‏ @GGPublicity
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IMPORTANT NEWS: PLEASE BE ADVISED THERE WILL BE AN URGENT MEETING AT 10 AM TOMORROW BY THE PADDOCK FOR ALL HORSEMEN AT GOLDEN GATE FIELDS WITH REGARD TO THE FUTURE OF GOLDEN GATE FIELDS.
12:38 PM - 13 Jun 2018


Jeremy Balan‏Verified account @BH_JBalan

Rick Baedeker, executive director of the CHRB, is also unsure as to what is going on at Golden Gate Fields, but he did note that the track does have its summer meet application on the agenda for next week's CHRB meeting.
1:34 PM - 13 Jun 2018

Hang on. pull back on reins.
It is my prediction that the industry in DE and NJ will get a much needed shot in the arm from sports wagering revenue.

Short meetings might be good - since if that's what happens, all the turf races can stay on the turf, even if there is so much rain as to make the turf course "heavy" - and that means no more four- or five-horse fields in races that get taken off the turf.

No meet is going to be that "short". We're not talking about three-day meetings, more like 40 or 50. That means they come over the turf unless it's the last day or two of the meet.

Interesting question. My best guess is maybe a half dozen or so, while there actually may be a modest increase of localized "bush league" meets for residual thoroughbred, standardbred and quarter horse owners.

This happens for a number of reasons:

1. Demographics - ten more years of the current racing fan base dying off faster than replacement will be negative. I don't know if anyone has some of the hard data to back this opinion up, but the trend appears to be the older, wealthier bettors and owners are not being replaced as fast as they are lost.

2. Economics - the Millennials are having a much harder go of making careers than us Boomers, and there's no reversal of that trend. It's hard to be player or a fan when you're living in your parent's basement, and your disposable income is non-existent. Recent data from other sports (NFL, NBA, MLB, and NASCAR) and casino reports indicate contraction is taking place, and with higher housing costs, higher taxes, higher food prices, and student loan debt which cannot be discharged, many younger people have a steep enough hill to climb.

3. Politics - Make/Keep America Great Again may allow Trump to stay in office for eight years, but the "successes" so far are much more Potemkin Village than substance, with only suspect .GOV stats backing it. 2025 could be chaotic. States and the .FED starving for "revenue" are hardly likely to be much help to racing, and will continue to be parasitic, killing the host. Trends toward socialism and bigger government, if they continue, lead the U.S. down the road to a Soviet/Red China form of government (name one Great Russian or Chinese race horse?), or to a break up of the U.S. into sub-regions, where racing may or may not be favored as entertainment. PETA (or its derivatives) may outlaw the sport, though horse ownership may increase a smidge in some regions due to the next reason # 4.

4. Rising transportation costs - how is racing affected if gas goes to $10 or $12 a gallon? How international does the sport remain if "carbon credits" are introduced to limit air transport? Even today, we're just one skirmish in the Middle East or one sabotaged pipeline away from shortages, and I for one don't believe Elon Musk and Tesla can violate the laws of physics to create electric airplanes and horse vans that are economically viable. Nor do I believe that the "shale boom" is sustainable, built on an iffy debt model, and typical wells short-lived compared to ones in the ever shrinking conventional fields, and of course extracting a lighter grade of crude not as favored by U.S. refineries. With war, refugee migrations, famine and potential food shortages due to changing weather patterns and growing populations, I think within 10 years rationing of fossil fuels will be a very real possibility, and racing and other leisure activities will be well down in the queue for consumption.

Just my three cents....

wow, 21 or more is winning this poll?

That seems rather wishful thinking to me.

This wasn't what was asked, but if we're talking North American racing and not just American racing, I foresee Woodbine being a strong player in the market. And I think that Canterbury will still be racing in warm weather.

:ThmbUp: ditto here too

finger lakes will have the breeders cup that year,,,ill be senile or dead and miss it....

Either 21+ or nukes

...that the Rooney family made a lot of money?

I think a number of existing tracks will run boutique meets focusing on state breds. Otherwise, what will you do with horses bred in Colorado or Nebraska or Kansas?