2 Plays with Analysis-WED. ARIL 1
 

WEDNESDAY APRIL 1, 2009

NAP::
TRACK-BEULAH PARK
RACE-#6
HORSE-#1-(VINTAGE DAVE)
Vintage Dave is competing today at the lowest level of his career. He is making a drop to $5000 tag after
running a very decent race last time finishing a close up second. It appears this drop will make all the difference in the world.
He has raced as high as a 15000claimer in which he won and now down to a 5K claimer. Joe Woodard has My Dominant Trainer Rating in this race
and Yuri Yaranga has my Top Jokey Rating as well. I think everything is a go here to the winner's circle. Vintage Dave has the Best E1 and best E2 Rating
along with My Dominant Overall Speed Rating. He is the Morning Line Favorite at 2/1 but I think he is a very good bet if I can get My Fair Odds of 1/1
Post Time is....3:25 PM EDST

NB::
TRACK-LAUREL
RACE-#7
HORSE-#7-(PRINCESS PERRY)
This 4 year old is making her second start here at Laurel after shipping in from Philly Park 2 races back. She has hit the board
in 3 of her last 3 races which show me she is in good form. I hope she can maintain that form for this race. She is making her first
start on the grass and also going a little shorter in distance. I am going to consider these moves as positive by the connections. I think
they, as well as me are looking for a good effort this time. I have the trainer ( Ann Merryman ) rated #3 by my ratings but with My Top Rated Jockey
(Harry Vega) I think they can get the job done. I love the Morning Line Odds on this one. I don't know why the ML odds are 6/1 but this might
make a very nice value play for me. If I can get My Fair Odds of 7/5 I will bet her across the board.

On Tuesday the NAP ran second as an underlay..The NB won but was also bet down to an underlay

THE YEAR TO DATE PROFIT ON OVERLAYS IS +52%

Question
 

Why are you willing to bet a horse at fair odds? If your fair odds are accurate, betting horses at fair odds means you end up with 09 (no profit, no loss). Don't you require a premium over fair odds to make a bet?
The duck.

6th at Beu, I'd have to take a strong look at

6 ACE HIGH BLUFF 6/1 -- Has weight off, and best total pace, so with the addition to being lighter, this horse has a very good chance to make good on a exotic. But yes, In the end 1 VINTAGE DAVE "could " be there..

6 ACE HIGH BLUFF
1 VINTAGE DAVE
5 SERENGETI WONDER


Laurel Race 7

10 SALLY BUTTERCUP (20/1) is going to be a surprise in this race. Being on Turf, and being fast to begin with, and a good closer, should make for an exciting race. 7 PRINCESS PERRY has great early speed, and will burn the field. Being a short 5.5F race, you have to put money on her, good call csmith.

10 SALLY BUTTERCUP
7 PRINCESS PERRY
2 MIZ MAGICIAN


Good Luck and great profits

i'm a rookie at this game, but i have a question. if your horse at Laurel is 7/5 and you bet across the board....and he shows. won't you lose money unless you have a considerably larger wager on show than to place or win?

The Fair Odds are the lowest amount I need to bet the horse. Of course I am looking for more than my fair odds if I can get it..Let me give you an example:
On Sunday my NB play at Gulfstream in the 4th race was the #2 ( Purely by Chance). His Morning Line was 8/1 and My fair Odds had him at 5/2--He won and paid $11.60 for the win--6.60 for Place--$5.00 to show. My suggested bet was an across the board bet

Good Luck to you with your bets

Yes, absolutely you will lose but I am hoping the horse goes off a lot better than my fair odds. If you look at the profit for the year you can see it works. Any more questions just fire away. These selection have been made available free everyday this year

I think we agree
 

Well, I guess we are into semantics here, and saying the same thing different ways (at least I hope so). My approach is to objective assign a fair odds value to contenders- an objective (as much as possible) opinion of the horse's chances, for example, 2-1, or 33% chance of winning. Then, for win bets, I want post odds to be 50% above that or no play. so I have to have 3-1 post odds to bet my 2-1 fair odds horse.

One main reason for this is I KNOW my obective opinion can be off a bunch, and I want some wiggle room with a cushion over the long haul. Second, there are so many things that can happen in a race (vagaries, I call them), like jock losing whip, getting blocked, bumped, stumbled, saddle comes loose, etc., that again I want some cushion.

I gather you do the same thing. Anyway, your picks look interesting and best of luck with them.

Yes, I agree. We are probably saying the same thing but in different ways. In My Fair Odds that cushion is built in. If someone wants to use My Fair Odds and then add a certain percent I have no problem with that. I think each bettor needs to know how comfortable they are setting their own Fair Odds.
Thanks for the discussion and good luck in all your bets