Exacta strategies
 

Most profitable way to bet an exacta? How do you bet exactas?

Weighted Exactas?
Exacta Boxes?
2x3
2x4
only when you have a single?

Even payouts 6-1 or better. Make a payoff grid and go from there. Sometimes you will have to make decisions on if the favorite beats you play to break even. Or etcetera. Thinking about x return is key.

I use exactas to dutch against my main plays

I was just checking if a certain exacta strategy had any value.
the first thing I did was to calculate the exacta's fair value and compare it to the actual pay out.

fair value
two horses A and B

(1/(odds +1) of A)/booking % = say ,aodds
(1/(odds+1) of B)/say booking % = say, bodds

then aodds x (bodds/(1-aodds)) = exacta probability
1/exacta probability = fair $1 exacta payout.

note, booking % = the sum of 1/(odds +1) for all horse in the race.

For me, there are two points to betting exactas. One, you are trying to turn a solid low odds horse (a horse too low in odds to bet outright to win) into the 5-1 or higher horse you'd usually look for, by making an exacta bet. Second you have 2 or 3 inseparable horses, all around the same odds, and instead of making straight bets you look at potential exacta combinations.

The late movie producer Martin Rhitt was described as a very successful horse player and he made 1X3 exacta keys for $40 and never turned them around.

I guess his horses never ran second

He obviously did not care if his horses ran second he played lean and mean LOL

Steve Davidowitz recommends the same exacta strategy in his book BETTING THOROUGHBREDS: 21st Century edition.

In the book Six Secrets of Successful Betting Gerry Okenuff, who went to the races with Rhitt for years talked about his tremendous discipline and ability to never turn around his 1X3 exactas not even for a dime. He played back in the days when the California tracks had the $5 exactas only.

In my view there are 2 times to make an exacta bet. One is to leverage an overlay I see in the win pool and two is to bet when I believe a low priced horse will be out of the top 2. In the first instance, I have found that overlays in the win pool carryover to overlays in the exacta pool. I did not find that the overlay carried over to playing the win overlay in the 2nd spot of the exacta. Hence, I see no reason to reverse the exacta bet made with my win pool overlay. When I feel a low-priced horse will run out of the top 2 boxing contenders is the preferred play.

I have rarely found a situation where an underlay in the win pool could be turned into an overlay in the exacta pools. It usually creates negative leverage.

Can get into full-on geek-mode, but the basics are pretty good advice here:

• bet the overlay
• don't 'box'
• look for opportunities to exclude a favorite

Aren't we beyond strategy but all about making the money? Thaskalos taught me that. Crist and others laid the groundwork in the most basic but effective terms. Here is a race from 2/23. I am not a big bettor so I think every player can relate. I bet $30-40 on in race exotics but it can snowball with across and win bets. I am usually in the $40-100 range but here is my basic exotic play. Very basic.

Combination-$1 payoff-denomination-payoff

Race 11 Gulfstream Park 2/23/18

8-10--$244--$2--$488

10-8--$168--$2--$336

8-7--$235--$2--$470

7-8--$182--$2--$364

7-10--$43--$7--$301

10-7--$38--$8--$304

I bet $10 to win on the :8: horse at 33-1. An easy end around to the payoff scenario . A few more peripherals and the total bet was $37.

Finish was 7-8-9. The actual return with plummeting exactas was 297.20. This was a good day as I hit 2 more that paidd $248 and $270.

I needed a kick in my ass to think in this basic manner. The handicapping obsession is a good one but ultimately you have to be making money or you aren't a victim of takeout and conspiracy but the willful participation of not capitalizing on your intelligence.

What happened to Crist?

Took his Eclipse award and went home - deserting the sport he lived off?

Well, let's see...he's 61...had a heart attack a few years ago that landed him in the hospital for two weeks according to press reports...

That could be a reason for him scaling back...but you're probably right...he probably just upped and "deserted the sport he lived off of"

Does everyone owe you a living, or just people in racing?