DERBY ANALYTICS---IMPLODE !!!!!
 

No matter how you handicap, AI, Data Base, Pen & Pencil, Speed Pace and Etc. it seems to me it was next to impossible to come up with the $100 plus winner today in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. Luck trumps theory again.

You can beat the races but you can't beat the race.

CJ had it.
#1 TF LP in a fast pace - a proven pathway to $$$.


Now, please KICK ME!

My wife picked the winner (Country, not Maximum) and also a friend of mine cashed big on the winner and also the exacta.

Maximum was the best horse, though.

I picked 7 based on handicapping and 5, 8, and 21 based on the post parade. I liked #13 because I thought he had some Honor Code pedigree and would be a closer based on the way Honor Code ran and based on the fact that McGuaghey seems to train dirt horses like they are grass runners that make a big move in the stretch.

My wife liked #20 in the post parade which I did, too, but I liked 21 better.

I thought #5 Improbable was a bit toey in the post parade and I was concerned that he would not win because he would use up too much nervous energy before the race even started.

My wife and I didn't bet. We haven't bet the Derby in several years. Glad I didn't bet. I would have bet #7. I hated to see #20 win by DQ, but that's racing.

Analytics were right on


MS was undefeated
Country House was Closer Bomb
COH was closer who could get distance


I hit Ex/Tri before the stewards decided they wanted to pick who won

Not really genius insight to point out that not many people had the 65-1 shot, since by definition that's the case.

A friend of mine caught the exacta. He keyed Code of Honor first and second with the entire field. He said in over 30 years of gambling, this was the luckiest score he ever hit.

And in the midst of chaos, a voice of logic emerges.

Kind of like Arcangues.

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

I was WAY up in the grandstands that day at Santa Anita and a young couple in front of my sister and I had been photo'd out of a winner, when they bet to place their horse ran 3rd etc etc.

The wife turned to her husband and said "I hear this French fellow sends over ready horses all the time, let's bet him here." They had it $5 Win and $10 place.

Wow, we all jumped for joy for them and they were tickled pink.

It happens about as often as the true probability suggests

Anybody could point how something good about the top finishers as well as half the field. I don't recall them picking them 1,2,3.

So you're saying the stewards illegally fixed the outcome of the race - serious charges. Do you have any prove aside from the fact that you lost money on the race?

Arcangues was ridden by who???? If my memory serves me correctly the jock was non other than Mr. Jerry Bailey, "The Master". Now that says something. That was a valid reason to bet that horse. Is Flavien Plat a Jerry Bailey, no way.

Not the KD, but a normal 7 horse field, wet track, 1 1/4 , multiple front runners, the horse is 11-1.

I was at an OTB that day. I knew Andre Fabre was a world-class trainer and I had planned on betting every horse he entered. I would have bet Arcangue, but his name appeared on the third page of the program's past performances. I never turned the page! I only looked at the first 10 or 12 runners!

When he won with Bailey aboard all I could do was laugh. It was disappointing and funny at the same time.

Calibration Handicapping
 

Pretty sure that Country House might of been top pick according to calibration handicapping Horse was 5W last race correct me if Im wrong

Keep in mind, it doesn't even matter if he was a top pick if someone is betting from a line perspective. Even if they had him at 50-1 and not 65-1, there's value there.