Why Romney Is Going Down
 

1. Repubs like to point to voter indifference to Obama this time around as the key. Not quite. The key is nobody but nobody likes Romney. Any enthusiasm for Romney is wrapped around anybody but Obama. I can't remember the last time somebody won who nobody gives a damn about. Can you?

2. Too many Americans simply like Obama. And they certainly don't get the hate on the right for the guy.

3. Who is the majority going to trust to do right by you and your family?

4. Obama saved the auto industry. Don't believe it? You don't have to. See how the upper midwest votes tomorrow.

5. Bettors are pouring it in late on Obama. We can sit here and say it doesn't mean a thing but we've all seen too many horses illogically overbet. And then won.

Just sitting here today thinking about the election, I should be quite anxious about how tomorrow is going to turn out. But that's not how it is with one day to go.

I'll tell you how sure I am of an Obama victory tomorrow...

If I were to somehow sleep all day tomorrow -- missing the election coverage entirely -- and were woken up at midnight to be told that Romney was the new president...I would wager heavily that I was being lied to. :cool:

My favorite part of this election cycle is seeing the incredible amount of TRULY CLUELESS people. Stunning they're able to vote at all they're so lost.

For once, I agree with you...:ThmbUp:

Obama may well win.
If he does, we all lose.
We are 16 Trillion in debt now and his own people say that will rise to 20 trillion by 1016. That means probably 24 trillion.

How do we ever sustain that crushing debt?
Answer - we don't.

This is a serious as it gets.
We don't come back from another 4 years. We might not come back the last four. Unless it is as Greece II.

Romney may not be the best man for the job, but he most assuredly is the better one.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

I know how UNBELIEVABLY SENSITIVE you are. I hope I didn't offend you.

Truth is, you've agreed with me on dozens of occasions.

Sorry about your loss of loot tomorrow.

I've been saying all along this election isn't going to be close. Whoever wins, is going to win by a margin that will surprise all the pollsters and pundits.

And I've been thinking about this belief of mine. Thinking that if it's true, who indeed is more likely, between the two, to actually win by a large margin?

The incumbent who nobody (supporters and detractors alike) TRULY BELIEVES has done a GOOD JOB, or the challenger, whose growing support has been quite evident in the rallies he has been appearing at lately, drawing bigger and bigger crowds...closing the gap in the polls all along since that first debate...gaining the momentum...pulling the substantial independents and undecideds to his corner....

It's wild to me how myself and thaskalos can see this election in such an entirely different light. I'm amazed he can be that sure of an Obama victory given this man's track record the last four years, and given the state of our economy and the continued high unemployment rate.

I'm not really sure what he's basing this faith in victory upon, unless it's the overseas betting market... :lol:

Your number one reason really doesn't even support a claim that Romney is "going down". It almost contradicts itself even. You are basically pointing out a flaw (I guess) in the reason that people will vote for Romney... and then presuming that they won't actually vote for that reason? Or that somehow votes that have a greater "desire" behind them will count more? I don't really get it. A vote is a vote.

Again, what are they going to do because they don't understant the "hate"? Vote six times because they are so upset about it? His likeability ratings aren't 80% or anything, they are a smidge above 50%. Subtract from that the people with a brain that can separate liking the guy from supporting his policy and I don't know what the point is exactly.

This gets to the first sentence of your post. This is where the indifference factors in. Hope and change never materialized. People are still looking for it. Some will give Obama another four years to come out of his coma, some don't want to be that patient and feel deceived and figure the other guy can't be much worse.

Well, to say he saved the industry is a bit of a stretch. There would still be an industry no matter what he did. What he did was intervene on behalf of a number of workers that most likely would have lost employment at a real bad time. So, yeah, they'll probably support him. Those that backed the corporations financially, however, and got boned on the deal, they may not feel the same way.

And we usually get really skeptical about the circumstances and the connections. ;)

That's because even you realize by now that your sick of both of them. :ThmbUp:

1. Repubs like to point to voter indifference to Obama this time around as the key. Not quite. The key is nobody but nobody likes Romney. Any enthusiasm for Romney is wrapped around anybody but Obama. I can't remember the last time somebody won who nobody gives a damn about. Can you?
Romney's favorability is actually higher than Obama's
http://washingtonexaminer.com/for-fi...rticle/2511203

2. Too many Americans simply like Obama. And they certainly don't get the hate on the right for the guy. see above

3. Who is the majority going to trust to do right by you and your family?
Polls show Romney and Republicans are trusted more with the economy, the number one issue to voters.

4. Obama saved the auto industry. Don't believe it? You don't have to. See how the upper midwest votes tomorrow. Fiction. Obama saved the union which will no doubt win him some votes. Let's also see how the non union delphi retirees vote.

5. Bettors are pouring it in late on Obama. We can sit here and say it doesn't mean a thing but we've all seen too many horses illogically overbet. And then won.
Who cares. The winner is determined by counting votes, not according to the latest odds.

Just sitting here today thinking about the election, I should be quite anxious about how tomorrow is going to turn out. But that's not how it is with one day to go.

A year or so ago here I said Obama would be re-elected. A year later I see Romney winning, and I don't think it's going to be as close as many do.

Truth be told...I am used to it.

And you're right; now that I think of it...I have agreed with you on a number of occasions.

But not here...

there is only one side that can win by a landslide and that is the Republicans. they are getting over 60% of the vote in about 10 states now.

i wish i knew how the polls work. since i am more familiar with the way bookmakers operate, i am going to stick with the data that they are printing.

i have never met a bookmaker that makes mistakes and has to depart with their cash.

So every favorite wins?

Tom, Agree with you on all points. We may make Greece look good after 4 more years of this.
It is a sad commentary to me on how so many people can think about voting for Obama given his performance. Doesn't seem to matter. Pose for a few photo ops in NJ and he's a leader? For anyone who has been around a presidential visit you know the visit does nothing but cause disruption due to security etc.
The decision to vote for Obama seems to be driven by emotion, race and an attitude of don't confuse me with facts. I personally am waiting to see the outcome tomorrow to decide whether I open another business or not. If Obama wins=Not.

There is one thing that is clear, either the national polls are wrong or a fair amount of the state polls are-running the state poll numbers that NY Times, former Daily Kos blogger Nate Silver uses and then plugging in the actual numbers over 2004 and 2008 for % the other states for Republicans/Dems would project to give Obama about a 5-6 point win on national scale almost as large as last time-contrary to actual national polls showing it tied-e.g. I couldn't find poll numbers for some states like Alaska or Hawaii but you can punch in % based on last election and population so either the state polls are way over sampling Dems or the National polls are understating-there simply aren't enough voters to make up the difference in the other states-unless you think NY and MA will be close (they won't be). The difference I believe has to do with the tighness of the screens-live and likely voter polls always cost more, that is why even Gallup early on does registered voters and some of the state polls merely use an automated phone machine-you don't even know if the person responding is over 18 with a machine poll.

Now Nate selectively chooses polls and the early voting returns from some states like Colorado actually have more Republicans voting as of this am so his methodology is suspect-sort of like how Barry Meadow says some handicappers "lawyer" a case for their horse-only looking a the positives-we should find out soon enough-of course this all ignores voter fraud being rampant like this:

North Carolina Man Brags About Voting for Obama Four Times-
This is simply amazing. Jim Turner an Obama supporter in North Carolina, brags on Facebook that he has already voted for Obama four times, and plans on hitting another polling place before he’s done. Read the rest here: http://thespeechatimeforchoosing.wor...-1-more-to-go/

or like this

OHIO: MORE VOTING PROBLEMS AS BALLOTS CAST FOR ROMNEY COME UP OBAMA. All Votes Count For Obama.
Wed Oct 31 2012 08:20:01 GMT-0700 (Pacific Daylight Time) • by Red Badger • 20 replies
Drudge ^ | 10-31-2012 | Staff
http://www.marionstar.com/article/20...nclick_check=1 Link only via Drudge..
Voters reported that when they cast their vote for Romney it came up Obama. Votes cast for Obama came up for Obama

or this:

OVER 3000, 112 YR. OLD ? VOTERS HAVE CAST BALLOTS IN NC
Mon Oct 29 2012 10:18:10 GMT-0700 (Pacific Daylight Time) • by jacknhoo • 24 replies
http://www.carolinatransparency.com/ ^ | 10/29/2012 | Carolina Transparency
2012 GENERAL ELECTION - 112 YEAR OLD VOTERS ? - NORTH CAROLINA - Votes Cast: 3,075 IN THIS GROUP THEIR PARTY AFFILIATION IS APPROX. 70% D / 30% R / 10% UNAFFILIATED - THE REAL CONCERN IS THERE IS NOT THAT MANY 112 YEAR OLDS ALIVE. IT DOES NOT TELL WHO THEY'VE VOTED FOR BUT IT APPEARS TO BENEFIT OBAMA.
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