*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc
 

Decided to move my tack over here, if no one minds. The old thread seemed to become another selection thread, with limited handicapping ideas or discussion. Thask started the old HTW thread, with the intention of board members posting their own Horses To Watch. A noble idea, just wasn't enough participation. I, and others kept it going by posting whatever--Horses to Watch, method/angle testing, etc. I took to just typing up what ever was on my mind, rants, praises, complaints---and my specialty...writing up entire essays on peculiar Trainer moves.

Some of the PM's I've gotten were memorable---had one hot streak last summer...you ever get in a zone with your handicapping---and can't lose?
There's some Twitter groups that scour the 'net--finding 'cappers who are winning.
They briefly found me...I was flattered, really...they said nice things.

Til the inevitable streak stopped cold. I went from being the toast of Twitter--to the scum of the earth :lol: People can be soooo cruel. :(
Another thing I noticed...alot of members here, seem to prefer PM over actually posting. That is perfectly fine , no problem there.

Hope some of you will join me---Post an angle...your own methods--particular software program ya have is killing it--let us all know, please. Would really rather have company here--john, Ucapper, creek, Winger, mike, lambo, big red, Randall....and everyone else. Ideally, post anything, with some 'capping knowledge attached--so we can maybe learn something. I know some of you Seniors on this board--are some of the sharpest 'cappers we have.

Enough of my history....The last thing I was doing, was posting plays of a new longshot method. The method started out as a "sub-24 second final quarter" offshoot. As most methods are in a state of flux--this one has quickly evolved into "hidden move" method. The TIPS program labels this FHWO (fast hidden workout) & HWO (hidden workout).
Basically the horse made some kind of move--within the previous race.

I added a Pace component--and further refined it, with a screening process.

Some were posted yesterday...4-5 plays--no winners. It IS a longshot method--so a good benchmark for a win rate is 10%..@ $25 avg mutual. That's what I'm shooting for.
Also, if you've never really looked at the HTW thread--I post something called the "$1 lotto straight superfecta". It's just that--a straight $1 super play--that I find while 'capping a track somewhere. It hasn't hit yet--but hell, if you play the lottery--play this lottery--it's just a buck.

More to follow--thanks for taking the time to read this

-NCG☮

--YESTERDAY'S POST
 

***Didn't hit any, yesterday--so today is the 2nd day

"HTW/PACE METHOD" 2/26
 

--CHARLESTOWN

5TH :1: TURNOUT 8-1

--SUNLAND

6TH :6: VERNISSAGE 20-1

--OAKLAWN

7TH :1: PUSHING ON A STRING 10-1

--PENN

6TH :4: BAD STORM RISING 30-1

--TAMPA

7TH :1: HUNTSTOWN 12-1

10TH :8: TRIB 12-1

--TURFWAY

4TH :6: AD MELIORA 15-1

10TH :2: INDIANA CHARLIE 15-1


*I count 8 before scratches--

-NCG☮

Standouts Today 2/26
 

***The lotto $1 straight superfecta:PENN~Race-6 -->> 4-11-7-5



---Jacks Party

Notes-- *CFN* Sunland no effort CLAIMED 8-1 b-2
Activity type 8-1 ML
Activity date 02-26-2016
Track Sunland Park
Surface Dirt
Distance 1 Mile
Race number 8 Post position 7


---Pegasus Red

Notes BACK IN A HURRY--SITTING ON A WIN
Activity type 7/2 ML
Activity date 02-26-2016
Track Aqueduct
Surface Inner track
Distance 6 Furlongs
Race number 5 Post position 3

--Bayott

Notes 02/03 --ABSOLUTELY NO EFFORT--RTW
Activity type 15-1 ML
Activity date 02-26-2016
Track Penn National
Surface Dirt
Distance 6 Furlongs
Race number 6 Post position 2

**Lone Speed entered today:
CTX
-RACE 1 :7: TENACIOUS CHILD 6-1
-RACE 3 :6: SILVER WARLORD 5/2
-RACE 8 :4: LOVE TO PROSPECT 2-1

GGF
RACE 1 :2: PROPHETINPARADISE 7/2

OAK
RACE 3 :2: BURNT ORANGEDINI 12-1

---------------------------------------------------------------------

***Lately a few of us have been 'capping with
THEETOPTHREE software
these are my plays today @ Delta
I only chose Delta because someone
said NOTHING WORKS AT DELTA

1ST - :4: YES ITS BETTS
6TH - :1: LUKES BAD BOY
7TH - :3: TOUGH JEANS
8TH - :2: - :4: - :5: -- EX & TRI BOX
9TH - :2: OUR LADY ALLIE

have a good day

-NCG

I'd be happy to support your thread when I got some goods, but I'd hate to see that HTW thread die. Even though it has evolved, Azeri just made the 2000th post to it. Would be a shame to see it fizzle out. It's been the action of the board for quite awhile now.

[

***Lately a few of us have been 'capping with
THEETOPTHREE software
these are my plays today @ Delta
I only chose Delta because someone
said NOTHING WORKS AT DELTA

1ST - :4: YES ITS BETTS
6TH - :1: LUKES BAD BOY
7TH - :3: TOUGH JEANS
8TH - :2: - :4: - :5: -- EX & TRI BOX
9TH - :2: OUR LADY ALLIE

have a good day

-NCG[/QUOTE]


I'll be watching, maybe you can show me how to make TTT work at Delta.

Well thank you, 'capper. You always seemed to be a stand-up guy. I'm a product of the Oakland Public School system...so I feel your pain, about
Seattle. That thread wont die, necessarily....was just going in a different direction, lately.

Okay....let's see if the picks are profitable--if not, no need to show anyone THAT method :D

Using THAT method with TTT at OP, I had to use the top PP rating instead of the TTT number to make it profitable. With 52 wagers made it's showing a 1.24 Roi.

I've always said, greenie...PRIME POWER is the absolute BEST commercial rating--from 1 to 5. Need an odds line? There is not a thing wrong with using Prime Power--it's up to the individual to assign the "weight" or odds, to give each of the top 5. With some research that's a very real goal.

I am completely, 100% convinced that any horseplayer willing to do the work--can easily find profitable selections.

If that is all this game required for success....me, you, and alot of others would be very wealthy men and women. Unfortunately, as you know, greenie--the ability to pick winners....is where success only BEGINS in this game.

--This was a recent post on the frustrations in dealing with BRIS:

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'd like to add another thing...something I find very frustrating: Since I use software alot, and also constantly researching methods and angles...I'm signed up for the UNLIMITED DATA PLAN. I'ts a set fee, download files to your heart's content.

So a few months back--decided I wouldn't be needing the Unlimited data file plan for a few months--had plenty of files already, to use for research. I looked all over the site to end my subscription--found I will have to physically call Bris to accomplish this.

What the hell? In this advanced day of doing almost everything with a mouse-click..I have to make the dreaded BRIS CALL. I've found that, in itself, completely frustrating. This was no different...the person I spoke with, spoke perfect english--she just didn't what the heck I wanted.
She finally transferred me to someone more knowledgeable on this apparently complicated process, who informed me I would have to SEND AN E-MAIL TO SOMEONE ELSE--just to cancel. Which I reluctantly did.

Flash forward to a month ago---I decide I now need to re-activate my Unlimited Data Plan. Absolutely could not do this online--I would click "activate" and would get a message stating "you are already an active Unlimited plan member"

So...another dreaded Bris Call, more run-around---til finally--was told I need to SEND ANOTHER E-MAIL TO THE SAME PERSON, TO RE-ACTIVATE.

I won't name the person--she doesn't run the company, but I did voice my concerns with their antiquated website, and mind-boggling process, in my e-mail. Even asked her why Bris seems to make it difficult to spend money with them.
The reply:

Mr XXXXXXX

This is to confirm the Unlimited PP Data Plan 9W has been added to your
Brisnet.com account effective today, February 8th, per your request.
You will be required to remain on the Plan at least through March 31st.
The Unlimited PP Data Plan 9W can be cancelled on or after March 31st, at the end of any given month.
When you wish to cancel your Plan, you MUST send an email to xxxxxxxx@brisnet.com
PRIOR to the end of the month of cancellation.
I do understand and apologize for your frustration in having to send an email
every time you want to sign up or cancel an unlimited plan.
We are in a bit of transition right now with our systems and
please believe me when I say I understand your frustration completely.
We are doing all we can at our level .
So, be that as it may………..
Whenever you wish to sign up or cancel your unlimited plan,
You must send me an email at xxxxxxx@brisnet.com.
I will always send you a confirming email back.
Let me know if you have any further questions.
My direct phone number is listed below.

So....she was nice about it. And did say they recognize the problem, and are working on it. I get that response from my cable company, too.

Time to get it together, Bris..like 5 years ago.

Anyone else have problems with Bris?

HWO/PACE RESULTS--SQUADOOSH
 

***Nothing again, today. After 2 days of testing...nada. Although I'm wavering in my confidence, a little...I'll give the method it's proper test.

When I'm certain it isn't a winner--and tweaking won't help---I'll simply stop the testing.
And if you know me--you should know what comes after that---ANOTHER METHOD TO TEST. The search for the profitable automatic bet--that's where I get my kicks. Believe me, those "automatic bets" have been found, by folks not even HALF as intelligent as I am.
The thing is---you haven't heard about them--because they ain't tellin'.
And neither will I hahaha....so you better just keep looking in here--because when I do achieve my goal--you will never see me again.
LOL...just realized, you can't see me now.

No more time for idle chit-chat..there's work to be done. If anyone would like to contribute anything, any ideas--test your own method--jump on up here.

-NCG

LONE SPEED RESULTS
 

**Lone Speed entered today:
CTX
-RACE 1 :7: TENACIOUS CHILD 6-1 2ND @ 6-1

-RACE 3 :6: SILVER WARLORD 5/2 XXX

-RACE 8 :4: LOVE TO PROSPECT 2-1 $7.60 $4.00 $3.80

GGF
RACE 1 :2: PROPHETINPARADISE 7/2 $5.80 $3.00 NO SHOW WAGERS

OAK
RACE 3 :2: BURNT ORANGEDINI 12-1 XXX

---------------------------------------------------------------------

***Lately a few of us have been 'capping with
THEETOPTHREE software
these are my plays today @ Delta
I only chose Delta because someone
said NOTHING WORKS AT DELTA

1ST - :4: YES ITS BETTS --2ND
6TH - :1: LUKES BAD BOY --WON
7TH - :3: TOUGH JEANS--WON
8TH - :2: - :4: - :5: -- EX & TRI BOX HIT THE EXACTA
9TH - :2: OUR LADY ALLIE --WON

all short prices-- wasn't a profit--just went with the blatantly obvious picks--now, apply some handicapping, and how hard would it be to be profitable?
I'm going to refine this a little...that takes time and testing, but those with the program should be doing that already.

--Look for "situational" plays---Top rated-top 2 speed- @ 6-1ML, something along those lines. MOST IMPORTANT--keep a log of winners, and the categories they were on top. A pattern will soon develop--you may notice horses with a big speed pts gap---at least 5, and dropping in class can get good prices.

-NCG

Special Santa Anita
 

***The lotto $1 straight superfecta:SANTA ANITA~Race-5 -->> 7-2-6-11


Good morning P.A. nation...hope your day is going well. I started to make the $1 lotto super @ Chuck--until I remembered they were a$$holes that don't give a damn about their horseracing customers--so went with the friendly confines of fan-friendly Santa Anita. Go on and support Santa Anita and put a buck down on that super--When it hits...I don't want to be dancing in the street alone. :cool:

I focosed on a method @ Santa Anita today---just want to help out our friends here, with some sweet longshot plays. There's a nice straight pick-6 in there also:

--SANTA ANITA

2ND :5: YANA 12-1

3RD :5: JOURNEY BY SEA 5/2

4TH :6: GAVINATION 12-1

5TH :7: CRAZY AL 15-1

6TH :9: ALERT BAY 4-1

7TH :8: CARLOT COWBOY 8-1

8TH :10: EMOTIONAL DRIVE 30-1

9TH :5: PROUD N READY 8-1

have a good day

-NCG☮

For the record I always check the HTW and will be stopping here now too if this is where the 'methodology' substance can be found. I like seeing people's picks, but really enjoy seeing the rationale or even trying to decipher the rationale based on the clues. Maybe it's a Sun Tzu sort of mentality, although he probably would have benefited from it. Anyway, keep it up, these sort of threads kind of kickstart my thinking (actually in general but specifically...) about the races in the morning.

I thought you were talking about the DRF Simulcast Daily! :lol:
I have reported dead links and bad files for years and everyone of them is still the same. How can yo have any respect for a company that has none for their customers? they are a joke. Mike Warren had more integrity than DRF. :lol:

Bris is so complacent...they literally DON'T CARE. You really shouldn't insult Mike Warren like that, though :lol:


**NOTE to johnhannibal: thanks ---and please, post up your thoughts and plays, as well. I enjoy reaing your in-depth analysis--plus you're long-winded like me hahaha

*HTW 2/28
 

Time to resume the HTW --on a new thread. You guys that were posting up your HORSES TO WATCH --please continue to do so right here in our new, state of the art location.

***Hidden Pearl

Notes scratched out of race vs monster--looking for easier spot --convinced this trainer is going for it today--RTW
Activity 8-1 ML
Activity date 02-28-2016
Track Parx Racing
Surface Dirt
Distance 5 Furlongs
Race number 2 Post position 6
Jockey Gonzalez S

***Aridus

Notes-Laurel *CFN* This horse qualifies for the profitable CLAIMED FOR NOTHING angle--the claimer= JAMIE NESS
Activity 10-1 ML
Activity date 02-28-2016
Track Parx Racing
Surface Dirt
Distance 1 Mile
Race number 8 Post position 2
Individual claim price $7,500
Race type Claiming
Jockey Gomez K

***Boston Charley

Notes --2/10 TUP had #s to wire--not much effort--should see improvement today
Activity 9/2 ML
Activity date 02-28-2016
Track Turf Paradise
Surface Dirt
Distance 4 1/2 Furlongs
Race number 6 Post position 6
Individual claim price $3,000
Race type Claiming
Jockey Beauregard S

***Life in Shambles

Notes--claimed for Ausmussen -could be $$$
Activity type 8-1 ML
Activity date 02-28-2016
Track Aqueduct
Surface Inner track
Distance 6 Furlongs
Race number 8 Post position 2
Individual claim price Not Entered for Tag
Race type Allowance Optional Claiming
Jockey Ortiz J L

**AQUEDUCT CARD
 

***The lotto $1 straight superfecta:AQUEDUCT~Race-6 -->> 3-5-8-4


Lately been studying Pace--especially as it relates to Speed. I used to say I'm a speed handicapper--well pace is a function of speed. If you're a speed capper, such as myself...and pretty much ignore pace...as I did--you're only getting a piece of the puzzle, a narrow dimension.

Mainly I've started to become a disciple of Randy Giles--I'll post his link up later-- in case you want to find Randy. He has a little program called "Pace Lab"....that you can use to isolate some of his particular pace situations. One of his ideas is something he calls PACE PRESSURE GAUGE
That is a perfect name for it, too. Gauging the amount of pace pressure--it's just that.
Naturally, I figured a real quick "gauge"....it's absolutely fascinating, this subject. I mentioned I have a little software program I had a programmer make up for me...based on something I had noticed long ago---an amazing amount of winners showed early speed (within 2.5 lengths of the lead--1st call) within their last 2 races. So my little program ONLY shows-- position and lengths--of the e-1 calls of a horses last 2 races. Also, it shows the Bris pace figs--all 3 calls--of a horses very last race. That's all I want to see--THE LAST RACE.
Purists will say "Oh no, I've got to go back half a dozen races" --well that's all good and well, but I don't need more than the last race. Furthermore, I don't even had the final speed rating--don't need it. It shows Trainer-Jockey W% and days since last race.
What I've done on paper---and what I hope my programmer can do for me..out of just that limited info--I've devised a "speed gauge". Now, I added my own version of "Pace Pressure"--still on paper--need to get that added to my program, as well.

What this tells me is--whether this particular race is PACE-BIASED against EARLY or LATE. This is where my speed gauge shines--if the race is extremely biased against LATE...my speed gauge totals will tell me if there is a speed stand-out. Today's 5th race @ Delta...there was such a stand-out--#3 PRINCE ART. Yes, he scored at a huge price for me. I used this method and nothing else--and hit the pick-4 in the RDSS contest, also yesterday.

You really ought to check Giles out..in his video turorials--he has this Texas Twang, sorta like Raybo sounds in his videos--he's not flashy or flambouyant-I like that about him also.

Anyway if you don't know about pace pressure, bias, etc...you really need to.
It will bring your capping to another level, trust me.

http://www.paceappraiser.com


Here's what I have for Aqueduct today---I use Quirin to figure pace pressure--and my own software as I mentioned. When I've found what I think is an extreme bias--I'll note it.

***AQUEDUCT


--1ST :4: MIDNITE TRACE 5-1 W :1: HUNTER'S STRIKE

--3RD --EXTREME EARLY BIAS-- :6: ESKENDULCE 6-1 W :1: COLLINS SMILE & :2: DAD'Z LAUGH


--4TH :4: ALEANDAR 2-1 W :6: GANADOR & :1: REAL EASTATE RICH


--5TH :6: LIANA STAR 4-1


--6TH EXTREME LATE BIAS :3: CAPTAIN TOEWS 15-1 W :5:
YAKOV & :8: KOWBOY BOOTS


--7TH ENTRY 1-1A 4-1 ML ❇ best bet


--8TH :5: EIGHTY THREE 5/2 W :6: ANGRY MOON


--9TH EXTREME EARLY BIAS :10: BONITA LUNA 5/2 W :3: IS SHE HOT & :9: AMULAY

We'll see how this goes today....I know I haven't perfected anything, or reinvented pace analysis. It's a lot of fun trying, though :D BTW....read the e-book "Extreme Pace" by Randy Giles--it's 10 bucks. Do not consider the Pace Lab--until you've read this.

have a good day

-NCG

2 SCRATCHES, 1 2ND, 1 OUT

Here's a new method that I'm testing. Back testing has been very positive, therefore it will fall on its face.

Current Bankroll: $200
Wager = $5 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)
Condition: 2/1 minimum odds at 0 MTP
Today's Selections:
MVR-7 :7: Cinder Tyme (5/1)
TUP-2 :7: Photo Shopped (3/1)
TUP-4 :3: Bounced (9/2)

WINGER! Was wondering if you guys were mad at me, or something. Glad you finally made it. I've been fooling with some methods--same deal--work great on paper--goes down the tubes when I post.
That's a good reason to post it up---gives it a "live" feel, whether you bet it or not. I'm devoting my time to this pace thing, so we'll see how that goes.

I have one in this race on my mental HTW list. I wish he had drawn outside and I have yet to really look the race over, but I think he might be able to get the lead here without getting cooked based on a cursory glance of the field on the overnight. Needed the first back for sure. Probably needed the most recent as well and once it was obvious he wasn't going anywhere, he wasn't used up to run second last instead of dead last. Morning line of 20-1 is, I think, a bit of a dream. Still going to be decent I think, but would be no surprise to see him open a lot lower and drift upwards.

:1: Taylor Ridge

HTW 2/29
 

The Grand Aqueduct Experiment went okay, I suppose. I didn't get the pick-4.....like probably a lot of forumites, I needed BONITA LUNA to win the finale. It wouldn't have paid much, but I was hoping to keep my win streak alive---unfortunately the streak ended at ONE. I'm not the type of player that can do well in multi-race "horizontals"...my forte is waiting for a spot--when an opportunity presents itself, for my kind of handicapping. It's hard enough to win one race LOL.

Horses to Watch for today: I could write a book on how good these PARX horses look today...The first one shows very subtle trainer manuevering, but the trainer can't hide those +15'S pace figs--this one has been setting or pressing those up. 'SpeedLimit is dropping down, trainer is switching to a jock whose basically just a warm body. When this horse wins today--I want jockey-worshipping SRU to explain how this trainer intentionally got a cadaver to ride his horse, and win.




--Overthespeedlimit

Notes --RTW ...see above comments
Activity type 5-1 ML
Activity date 02-29-2016
Track Parx Racing
Surface Dirt
Distance 1 Mile
Race number 3 Post position 4
Race type Claiming
Jockey Llagas W E (sorry about the "cadaver" comment, jockey Llagas)-

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The 2nd horse just happened to catch my eye--well actually Trainer White's situational stats are eye-popping. This trainer is rather ho-hum, nothing to write to mama about--but like all veteran, slightly obscure trainers--he's got an angle---a situation or two, where he excels..he makes his money on. He's doesn't make it on purses---none of them do, at this level. Check his stats \i/

***2015-2016 237 6% 23% +0.19

***+1st start w/trn 30 27% 43% +2.22--- This is from a 6% trainer--unbelievable

***Shipper 85 8% 27% -0.79

***Maiden Clming 273 5% 20% -1.06


--Saratoga Angel

Notes -...see above comments
Activity type 15-1 ML
Activity date 02-29-2016
Track Parx Racing
Surface Dirt
Distance--5F
Race number Post position 2
Race type-Maiden Claiming

let me make sure I get the trainer's name correCt--DONALD WHITE
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

---Classic Giacnroll

Notes --comes back to the level he was claimed at, after trying much tougher--his trainer is sharp, so the fact he thought enough of this one to try him way up in class--says alot. Top-rider aboard, as well

activity type 15-1 ML
Activity date 02-29-2016
Track Parx Racing
Surface Dirt
Distance 1 Mile
Race number 8 -Post position 1
Purse $54,000
Claim price $40,000
Race type Allowance Optional Claiming
Jockey Acosta J D

Hmmm...thought I would have a Turf Paradise horse today--to give johnhannibal something to ponder--but that's it--if you have one--post that bad boy.

-NCG☮

**PACE SPOT PLAYS 2/29
 

***The lotto $1 straight superfecta:PARX~Race-6 -->> 1-3-6-10

--HOUSTON

7TH :5: AH HUN 15-1

--MAHONING

6TH :9: VIGILANTE LAW 7/2 (thanks Gib)

--TURF PARADISE

8TH :2: GRAY ELIXER 20-1

*These horses pertain to a very specific, profitable pace spot-play---out of all the entries today--these were selected. 3 horses.

have a good day

-NCG☮

I like Overthespeedlimit in the 3rd and Classic Giancnroll in the 8th.
I will add the :7: Twenty Percent in the 9th.

I am testing out at Parx, no betting yet.

Hey AZ..welcome aboard :)

Naturally the rail draw strikes again and he gets left five at the start. Criminy. Might have been in a little too tough again but one of these days... :rolleyes:

Current Bankroll: $221 (3 Races)
Wager = $6 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)
Condition: 2/1 minimum odds at 0 MTP
Today's Selections:

HOU-8 :6: Motogrind (10/1)
MVR-8 :3: Go Shermin Go (5/2)
PRX-5 :4: Touch of Bling (2/1)
PRX-7 :2: Beach Hut (5/2)
SUN-7 :10: Surf N Ski (2/1)

Stable bet the hell out of Saratoga Angel--just as predicted..today WAS the day--it takes a really incompetent stable to do all that's necessary to set up a betting coup---then blow it in a photo.

SPOT PLAYS--PARX--MVR
 

***The lotto $1 straight superfecta:MAHONING~Race-6 -->> 3-6-8-4

--PARX

1ST :6: HOUSE RED 6-1

3RD :6: MAGICAL FIRE 5-1

6TH :4: GREAT ILLUSION 6-1

7TH :7: WOODLAND WALK 12-1

8TH :1: KITTEREY 15-1

9TH :8: GORGEOUS SUNRISE 6-1

--MAHONING VALLEY

6TH :2: FINAL ANSWER 10-1

8TH :8: AUTHOR BOB 20-1

--SUNLAND

3RD :4: LONG STORMY TRIP 8-1

**Haven't even looked at TUP yet--maybe catch it later

have a good day

-NCG☮

Prx2- :5: G.G. Gio 8-1
Prx5- :9: Blue Bahia 4-1
Prx6- :5: Sweets Galore 10-1
Prx7- :4: Awesome Devine 8-1

Testing again

Whoa!! To win any race is a lot harder than you think. You may have a horse ready to fire but so may someone else. Everything has to go just right on a given day, especially with one of these horses that don't look good on paper. The stable may have been competent but the jock made an error in judgement somewhere along the trip. There are too many factors that go into a race to say I will win today. Even the favorites lose 2/3 of the time. Many coups are tried, few are accomplished. I am speaking from experience here. I could go on........ but I think you get the idea.

LOL .. I HAVE been known to make some outlandish statements, when posting in the middle of the night.

However---I really don't think this was one, greenie--speaking from MY EXPERIENCE. You are exactly right about prepping a horse for a betting coup, only to find ANOTHER horse whose connections have the same intentions. I have a name for those horses...I call them "ringers"..or horses that were also set-up.
I enjoy this subject, and appreciate your posting.

-NCG

you almost got famous today at Mahoning.

Yeah..was just looking @ MVR charts. :(

***One nice winner, couple scratched, and TWO MORE longshots ran 2nd....think I'll add a place-saver to any @ 15-1+. We'll see how that goes---2nd place finisher @ MVR --AUTHOR BOB paid $35.00 to PLACE.

PARX RACE 7
 

This race had 3 solid win possibilities...

:1: NEGRITO 6-1

:2: BEACH HUT 5/2

:7: WOODLAND WALK 12-1

All 3 were almost literally tied for the top (using my method) --I chose 'Woodland (the winner) only because she had the highest odds--that's my tiebreaker.

:2: Beach Hut was right there, as she figured to be.

:1: Negrito didn't hit the board, which honestly, was really surprising. If you put a gun to my head--I would have selected Negrito without regard to odds. Checked the chart for the race, and wasn't surprised to find he'd had some trouble. Call it an instinct, but I think this horse would have won the race, with the :7: 2nd and the :2: running 3rd.

It was good for me, no doubt, since I won....I didn't hit the trifecta consisting of those three, but I feel pretty confident I'll be rewarded soon.

Negtito is already on my horses to watch list--I would suggest you put him on yours. With his seemingly poor showing today--he may be a big price next out--and that's when we're gonna score :ThmbUp:

The chartmaker even did us a favor, by not making a big deal out of Negrito's trouble--here's the chart: \/













checked the chart