Handicapping Method
 

As a response to the long thread about pen and pencil methods, what is your primary handicapping method? Pen/Pencil and paper, computer, or some other method? Personally I use a just a sharpie pen and mechanical pencil and the daily form/PP's. I have found it to work out for me out for me as I had about an even return for the year, I play strictly for hobby and self enjoyment.

What does everyone else use?

I am still a P & P guy (47yrs of it), but I use the PDF version of the Past Perf's.....I use Foxit for making notations and markups, tho.....I use to have boxes and boxes of paper forms...No longer, as a big hard disk takes care of that....Not to mention the savings on ink and paper, a lot....

Now, I use the computer for a Wager Log/Diary Database only...

best,

I suppose that at least some paper-and-pencil methods could be automated/converted to a computer format, provided that programming resources (time/money and knowledge) were available.

Can notes and markups be made with the free version of Foxit, or just a reader?

Thanks,

Mike

I have data going back to Lotus 1-2-3 on a 286, starting in 1985. I moved it to R base in the 90s and then access. I found enough structure to be able to drop the relational side. I believe I'm beyond the stage of finding out what works.

At the same time I married into a California racing family. Fortunately, my wife doesn't train or have a track job, although she does have a small stable. She does get a number of mares from SA. And so over the years dinner coversations has included brawls about "your donkey can get to the half mile pole quick enough."

I've dropped all performance analysis and have started to focus on billionaire/ millionaires looking for a soft spot (because that's where I believe is the consistent money.) And the things they'll do to conceal their moves-- including low percentage or unkown jockeys, changes in distances, changes in surfaces, changes in tracks. Much of my play is based on past training habits of people such as Whittingham, Frankel, and now Baffert, and knowing when the high end is going to send their horses. Most of the clues won't be found in the past performances or speed ratings, especially at the high end. And therefore all of my computer usage is recording results and data. I don't use a computer to make selections. I believe putting a computer in charge will have marginal results at best.

I voted computer, I started about this time last year.

Even if you use a pen and paper method. (I did for 40 years)There is no excuse for not keeping records, and Excel can do that, and so much more.

If you list, Date, Track, Race number, Horse number, Method of selection, Race Type, Distance, Surface, Age, Class, Sex (The Seven) along with letting Excel do the math for hit rate and average odd, you can see instantly (with some very simple filters) how well you are doing while getting answers for, who, what, when and where.

Invaluable information.

I am playing thirteen tracks today, and could not imagine how I would do this without my computer and database software.

Regards,

Windoor

P6, YES you can make all the markups you like, but you will have to live with a "watermark" that will suddenly appear at the top of the page, when you go to save your work....That is all the functionality that you will lose tho....So, if you can live with the annoying watermark, you are good to go...

best,

Would your methodolgy involve tote board analysis - seems like your approach follows the money trail (i.e. early money or late money)?

I use both computer & then pen & paper. Computers are great for pointing out contenders & usually there's about 4 to 7 in a race. If I was to sum it up in one phrase- People have opinions. Numbers don't.

And then after getting the contenders I make my own numbers for that race, because no way would I ever play a computers top number blindly.

I am a pen and paper handicapper, and I use speed and pace analysis in order to make my selections. To form my opinion on a horse, I look at three things:

1.) THE HORSE'S FINAL-TIME SPEED RATINGS...to see how fast the horse is capable of running the distance when the conditions of the race are favorable, or adverse.

2.) THE HORSE'S FRACTIONAL TIMES...to see if there are any sudden bursts of speed within the race, which might indicate that either the jockey failed to properly ration the horse's speed, or that the horse is showing an improvement in form.

3.) A QUIRIN-TYPE SPEED/PACE RATING FOR THE RACES THE HORSE COMPETED IN...because I believe that the quality of the race itself has a lot to do with the individual performances of the horses involved.

I combine these three factors, and come up with speed/pace ratings for all the horses in the race. I then convert these speed/pace ratings into "power ratings"...and use these to structure my superfecta and trifecta wagers.

Thaskalos,

And does this methodology work for you?


Should I resist the urge to tell you all the reasons it can't? :lol:
(Oh, sorry. Wrong thread.)


Dave

I am still young, Dave (relatively speaking, of course)...and always eager to learn...so all is not lost.

I just have to pay closer attention to some of these "new school" posters...so I can pick up some pointers.

Live and learn, I say...:)

Well, you have to be in charge. To borrow a phrase from Ceasar Milan, you have to be the pack leader.

Pen and paper just won't do, unless you keep it simple and very basic.

Here is a rating which I have developed.

S-Factor = (Phi/n) *(Pr/Pl) *e^(A*F/n + B* R/nr)

I doubt anyone would want to use pen and paper to compute an S-Factor rating for each horse. Also some analysis is required to determine A and B. ...one can get very old fast doing analysis without a computer.

Alright what are the variables for the S-Factor?

Phi - Horse's odds in last race
n - # of runners in last race
Pr - Today's race purse
Pl - Purse last race
e - exponential function
^ - raised to the power
A - Constant to be determined
B - Constant to be determined
F - Finish in last race
R - Rank of average speed rating for the last two races
nr - # of runners in today's race

S-Factor -> The lower the better the rating.

How good is it? Test it yourself.

Mike (Dr Beav)

May I ask, how did you come to developing this factor.

What about good old eye-ball capping?
You look at the PPs and never use a pencil or a computer?
Most people I see at the track, when I go, is this group.

Form in one hand, beer in the other.

I use the computer, no pen or paper, so I voted for computer capping, however, in my superfecta wagering I don't bet anything that hasn't passed my "due diligence" routine. Verification of what the computer is telling me is critical.

Half computerized, half by hand, and gradually trying to move that over towards 95% computerized. Would love to wake up in the morning, after my program scraped and analyzed all races that night, and go over the best picks for the day with some coffee.

These people are of a select elite group.

Most of us can only aspire to obtain this level of confidence with just a glance at the form.

The rest of us need some kind of figures to have the least amount of comfort in our selections.

Regards,

Windoor

I only whished I knew what this meant.

I always read your posts with great interest, but my eyes start to glaze over halfway through them. Kinda like my wife's does when I explain the finer points of new spot play I am working on.

She just's smiles and says, "Honey, can we go to the mall this evening?"

My Momma always told me I should stay in school, rather than pursue a career in construction. Maybe she was right after all?

Regards,

Windoor

Know what you mean regarding the "finer points". I get that type reaction at the coffee shop anytime I am asked about my handicapping. Over the years I have learned to side-step most inquiries. Now when someone asks me "How does your program work?", I ask "Do you really, really want to know, or are you just trying to make conversation?" They always give me that cocked head, puzzled look, that tells me to change the subject. :lol:

Another sure sign the subject needs to change is, after I've told them about manipulating the data, they ask "What data?". :bang:

I have a pretty tedious pen and paper routine.It's a labor of love for sure but I know if somehow I could computerize some of the prerequisite capping I would a far more succesful bettor because I could just think about the factors and create better bets.Raybo showed me some of that potential a few years ago,but with my work the only way I have time to learn is between December and March.I am intrigued by computer help with each and every post I read.Where to begin,it all seems like it's so far out there it might as well be on another planet.I see other players like me saying the same things and being poked,prodded,and laughed at.I guess in reality those in the know don't really want anybody to know better.I'm lost at square one,stuck imagining what might be.Frustrating.

Trifecta Mike's formula
 

I've got to wonder whether TM is serious about the strange formulas he has rolled out in this forum. I understand how his formula is built, and I can tell without hesitation that claiming horses who are suspicious drops will obtain the lowest of the low S scores. And if you're not following me so far, that's a very bad thing, because he states that the lower the score, the better. It may or may not work better in non-claiming races.

Also, he never said it worked, he said try it and see. No thanks.

c'mon man

I would think you could get a program to scan the data files for "Contenders" if they are not too complex. That might be enough to lightened the load and allow you to concentrate on the pass/play decisions.

There are some free downloads for a trial period of such programs.

I would recommend reading up on any you might think will do the job, read the manual and message boards, if any, before downloading, that way you can make the most of the time period the program will run.

Ray's AllData is free, and has many useful filters at your fingertips.
If it is missing something you need, Harry can make a separate program to filter for just about anything you can imagine. Not for free, but at a very reasonable cost.

Regards,

Windoor

Truly f'king amazing!

Mike (Dr Beav)

I have been picking losers that way since 1964. Although sometimes I will circle something in the form if I haven't lost my pen. Generally by the fourth beer, I am really confident in picks. It takes the fourth beer for me get a good handle on the pace scenarios.:lol:

I didn't explain myself too well the first time
 

Trifecta Mike, I should have backed up my assertions better the first time. My impression of your S formula was negative because I thought it would almost always pick short priced horses, and had no way of protecting the player from negative drops, which in the long run will cost the player at least 50 cents on each dollar bet. So I asked myself "under what conditions could this formula give the player an edge, a good bet at good odds?" After some thought, the answer I came up with was chaos races. Not that it will, but it could. Let me try to wrap up with a few points:

1. it appears to me that the S formula is too close in its logic to the way a linemaker thinks - the better the horse ran in bigger fields at shorter odds and higher class levels, the lower (and thus better) the S score. It's an attempt to identify the best horse, but may be a better indicator of who the public thinks is the best horse.

2. you hinted that "it works". But you said nothing about constants A and B other than they were unknown at this time. I could drive my car down the street on three tires blindfolded and tell you it worked........from a hospital bed.

3. you gave no guidance on how it might be used in real life handicapping, or your insights (as developer) into the weak and strong points. An example of this (made up) might be "if the lowest S score in the race is greater than .55, betting the two lowest S scores to win showed a 12% profit when both horses were at least 9-2 or higher in odds".

4. there is no indication or test data for percentage of winners or average odds of selection and average odds of winners, expected longest losing streak, etc.

I apologize for not explaining myself the first time, but I still think it's poor practice to put something out there either not knowing or not disclosing any more than you did. Personally, it would bother me to learn that someone went out and risked real money on an idea (of mine) that really hadn't even progressed into the paper testing stage. If you want people to help you paper test it and report the results back in this thread, I wish you had said so explicitly. But even then more info from you would be needed, like suggested starting settings for A and B, which are both negative numbers (who would know that?). If this seems unfair and negatively biased to you I apologize again, but this is still the way I see it.

I am admittedly a paper and pencil guy in my approach to handicapping, and happen to believe that our time is better spent in building a better game incrementally through knowledge gathering and self awareness than in an eternal search for the Holy Grail. Rome wasn't built in a day. I am truly impressed with what I've read about JCapper, and could be swayed to go in that direction if I had the time, but I don't, at least for now. Everything in it is explained to the best of the inventor's ability, and more importantly, it is tested and benchmarked thoroughly. The USER DEFINED METHOD, whether executed by hand or by computer, seems to me to be a common denominator among the best and brightest contributors to Pace Advantage.

In the moments when we are the most honest with ourselves, most of us will concede that a commitment of time and money are almost always required to advance to the next plateau in life. Seductive shortcuts almost always lead to the inevitable dead end. Carrying through with the commitment is the hard part, and explains why fitness clubs experience a surge in new memberships each January (New Years Resolutions) but the same number of cars in the parking lot as before by March.

What is REALLY on your mind?

Mike (Dr Beav)

IF I said that (factor A) and (factor B) were both par values for the race given, would you say yes?

Better information, more disclosure. I see that I was thinking about the exponential term the wrong way, and why A and B are positive. Thanks.

Can you at least tell us what the formula is intended to do? Establish true probabilities? You said I don't understand it, so why not explain it?

I love competing with them at the track.

Since I'm betting real money, I want to be prepared. And I want records so I can review my handicapping when I get home.

You can set A= B = 1 for now. The rating is unque.

Mike (Dr Beav)

The beer can come in mighty handy when cappin.

Mike,

Just want you to know that I copied your formula and will study it when I get time. In the end, I am a number person also. Just want to keep numbers in their proper place after understanding the game first.

Capper Al

Tom,

Don't you do both? I find myself not looking at the PPs as much as I should since I read the computer output. I consider not looking a weakness in my handicapping because one could miss the story that the PPs can tell.

Yes, sometimes is just use eye-ball scan and nothing more. Mostly at lunch when I don't have a lot of time. I do mental pace ratings - first call 21:0 = 0 and second call 43:0 = 0. Add 1 point for each fifth off the time is and 1 point for each length back.

Race time = 22.2 45.4 = 7, 14
Horse is 4-3 lengths and 2-1 length, = 10, 15 for the pace.

For routes, use 43:0 and 109.0.

Crude, but simple and I can scan the whole 10 lines in seconds and get a rough idea of the pace - contested or easy and then go to the best early of look for a closer with good odds. That is the fun day at the races.

Tom
Would it not be easier to use Bris to compare your angle ?
Mac:)

If he is adjusting those times well, that method would produce decent pace numbers.

[QUOTE=raybo[b]]If he is adjusting those times well[/b], that method would produce decent pace numbers.

My point is keep it simple.

Mac:)

I've changed since then....with simulcasting, I now have a racing form in each hand, and drink the beer using a straw...