Rayya's Times, the magical rail exagerated?
 

As everyone knows, the data for Mendelssohn on dirt is limited to one race at one track at one distance in one path.

However, the data for Rayya, who came in second to Mendelssohn on the same dirt at the same track at the same distance in the same path, comprises two races: 1:59.66 (UAE Oaks) and 1:58.42 (UAE Derby).

She gained less than a second along the rail on a track that is imputed to have been considerably faster than 1 second. I would have assumed the "adjusted" track speed would at least rival Justify's 3 seconds, but against the UAE runners, as opposed to for them in Justify's case. This doesn't appear the case.

Using the time honored 1 second = 5 lengths, Mendelssohn's 1:55.18 is exactly what it should have been and his 18th lengths were not due to the rail, but to his effort and his stamina. It seems unlikely the track would have been faster for him than for her, so let's add a second to his time: 1:56.18, which is still fast enough to win most Preaknesses, to account for the differences between her times.

The rail could very well have prevented any horse gaining, but it does not appear to have magically given Mendelssohn 18 lengths. Setting aside all of the "you're a dummy, real time is fake time, fake time is real time" insults coming my way, the internals provide the least objectionable to Oxam's Razor explanation for the results:

1/4

Mendelsohn 25.09 (Thunder Snow 25.73)
Rayya 25.33 (West Coast 25.88)
Gold Coast 25.37 (Pavel 26.12)
Reride 25.57 (Mubtahij 26.77)

3/4

Mendelssohn 1:11.87 (Thunder Snow 1:13.89)
Rayya 1:12.09 (West Coast 1:13.96)
Reride 1:12.17 (Pavel 1:14.11)
Gold Coast 1:12.72 (Mubtahij 1:14.14)

Mile

Mendelssohn 1:36.31 (Thunder Snow 1:37.21)
Rayya 1:37.85 (West Coast 1:37.39)
Reride 1:39.07 (Pavel 1:37.75; Mubtahij 1:38.26)

All horses were carrying 126lbs (except perhaps Rayya).

There is a logical fallacy that a track must be fast and not taxing in order to result in a merry go round order, but that doesn't happen because of the speed of the track. It happens because of how fast each horse took up position and the clip they were traveling at when they did. If all horses are traveling at the same speed, the intial order will not, cannot, change. But as soon as their clips change, their distance between each other changes. And their clips changing is based on lactic acid threshhold.

There is another fallacy that if records fall at a track the track must be faster in relation to other tracks. None of the times posted came anywhere near American track records. The track was faster than it had been in relation to itself, but 2:01 is not fast, unless you mean Justify in the SA derby fast. If so, then Mendelssohn ran the equivalent of 22.09, 1:09.87, 1:33.31, 1:52.18, which I don't think you mean.

My guess is that the track is more tiring than most American tracks, and that Rayya's 3/4 a second was not a gift from the track, but that she actually ran faster, and began to hit the wall between 7-8F, then ran slower and slower. This is in perfect unison with the results, and means that Mendelssohn's 18 lengths were because he did not begin to hit the wall until 8-9f. If I'm right, Rayya should be in the derby, not the oaks. And Mendelssohn is the fastest 3yo.

Mendelssohn's performance is perhaps better understood in relation to Beholder's performances, then to the other 3yos'. She out ran her pedigree by 4fs, she had the Henessy speed but what appears to be the Leslie's Lady stamina. She could lope along at the same speed as the horses in front of her then pass the between 5-6f as they hit their thresholds one by one, and maintain her speed to the end. She used her Henessy speed to stay close and her Leslie's Lady stamina carried her past everyone as they reached their lactic acid threshold. Mendelssohn didn't accelerate, he maintained. Mendelssohn is out of the Henessy/Leslie's Lady Nick.

Whether he has a shot will be decided to how close to the front he can get, and when the other horses hit their thresholds. If his UAE derby is indicitive he will hit his late in the stretch. There won't be many that can match that.

I'm not saying he'll win, he likely won't for a whole slew of reasons.


FWIW West Coast and Pavel hit their lactic acid threshold exactly where they always do 6-7f. They ran the exact same race they always do, it's just people had decided that West Coast was a world beater. If he was he should have easily passed Gunrunner in the Pegagsus due to the iron law of crosswinds of which he had sat in the cat bird seat for the entire race, while Collected and Gunrunner took the full brunt. Gunrunner's effort in the Pegasus was so much better than even those who know it was oustanding will ever realize because they do not understand crosswinds. I said all of this on Bloodhorse well before the race FWIW, if you'd like to check.

Well... Mendelssohn IS the fastest 3 yr old on Ragozin and TG so I'm not sure what point you're trying to make as far as that's concerned. The question in my mind doesn't concern his figure but his ability to replicate it. That's a big figure for a spring 3 yr old who popped first time dirt.

The percentages say he bounces but I think that could be somewhat mitigated by lasix and the 6 weeks. He can go back a couple and still win.

Also, it's going to be difficult to compare Meydan times to US because there is no run up.

The front end and the rail were the places to be supposedly throughout the Dubai Carnival, not just World Cup day. See the Mr. Vosburgh video.

Sure enough, Rayya was one of the 16 (of 17 races) winners in dirt races at Meydan that assumed the early lead and rode the rail. So it is not necessarily a given that she should have improved time-wise very much from her UAE Oaks. By the way, she also carried more weight in the UAE Oaks (126 lbs to 121 lbs in the Derby).

None of that though explains why Mendelssohn won by a massive 18 lengths. The probable explanation is fairly simple, Mendelssohn completely outclassed those horses.

So who did he beat? Rayya, a filly with a modest pedigree that sold for $7,000 as a yearling. Gold Town, a Godolphin failure in Europe who was gelded after being unable to place in even listed stakes company. Reride, a second stringer from the Steve Asmussen barn--who doesn't have a Derby major contender to begin with--who has run at Delta Downs and Sunland Park. The latter's claim to fame is besting a horse named Runaway Ghost.

The only race of consequence Runaway Ghost ever started in was the Los Alamitos Futurity against modest Derby prospects Solomini and Instilled Regard and the injured McKenzie.

He was beaten 36 lengths.

Suddenly those 18 lengths don't look that amazing.

The furthest distance Leslie's Lady won a race at was 6.5f.

Interesting, and very well written.

Skipping to the logical conclusion, this is what I have trouble accepting:

“If I’m right, Rayya should be in the derby, not the oaks.”

The good news is, we can see how she runs on Friday, and still have time to recalibrate for Saturday.

Precisely my thoughts to potentially calibrate times from other tracks for Derby contenders. I'm having a hard time taking some of the prep speed figures at face value this year. Perhaps a good thing since best Beyer last out is 2 winners in last 15 and best Brisnet is 5 winners in last 29.

Best Beyers and top figure in a race like this I absolutely believe that. But fast via the Beyer scale is still bigtime relevant. Just looking 8 of 14 winners had a 100+ Beyer last out. If you go to 96 or higher that number becomes 12 of 14. Fast still wins even though fastest may not.

What are you talking about?

Aidan O'Brien has afforded you 57 bits of data on U.S. dirt.

He's 2-3-2 lifetime.


... the same Rayya who staggered along to top some steed shipping from New Mexico ??


Whyyyyyyyyy are you even talking about either one??

Who did he beat ????

PLEASE tell me your not a Justify fan asking that question of Mendelssohn !!!

Raaya , Reride and Gold Town look like Secretariat compared to 13 of the 14 deadbeats that Justify has lined up against in his career and than there was all the quality horses Mendelssohn beat in the BC Turf and don’t tell me that race is not relevant when you have Bolt and Free Drop Billy fans going back to races midway through their 2 yr old years to make the case for those horses lol.

I’ll have a few bucks on that Raaya and Mendelssohn oaks/derby double

no he is not, not the way spalding operates, he is the furthest from any kind of fan boy of anything, let alone Justify.

He was just pointing out that Mendhelsohns win is a bit dressed up, still excellent but the margin of victory is inflated for a few reasons. He is going to be in the 6/1 range, those questions are a valid reason for thinking he might not be 18% to win this race.

I feel like he is at best 10%.

Think of it this way. If Justify didn't exist, and Bolt d'Oro smashed the Santa Anita Derby after winning his seasonal debut (via DQ of course), he'd be the favorite for sure in the Derby. That is who Justify beat. That is probably a bigger scalp than any other horse in the field has, along with Good Magic and Solomini.

Nothing wrong with thinking he is not a good bet, but having almost every post be something negative about the same horse is getting a bit old. We get it already. You got something else to contribute? ANYTHING else?

Maybe if things don't go according to plan come the 5th of May, and if in a strange way we are very lucky or fortunate, the first 100 posts or so from this person might magically disappear.

I actually have written on just about every horse in the field and touched on other subjects such as jockeys and bet structures. It’s true everything I have written about Justify is negative so I can see how my posts would rub a Justify fanboy the wrong way. I sincerely apologize if I hurt anyone’s feelings.

Furthermore I usually only bring up Justify when I am disputing something that somebody says positive about him. There is so many fanboys of Justify here that the positive posts can create a very warm positive emotional vibe for the Justify fanboys and since his entire 100% appeal is based on the emotion of wanting him to be the next American Pharoah I can understand how my reality based posts can interfere with the emotion based logic of the Justify faithful so I will try to limit my negative Justify posts ...

Yea, there a lot of us I suppose.