Fourth of July Handicapping Puzzle; Belmont "You make the call"
 

7/4 Belmont Race#4

Is Barefoot Angel a Legit favorite, or a Vulnerable favorite?

Why?

What is your play?

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...1/summary.html

(for past performances, click and scroll down)

Barefoot angel doesn't seem to want to win. Suffers from seconditis at this level.

I'm going with Carmines honor. Dropping down, gets Irad, great works in the morning, looks like a great spot.

Tough to take him as the favorite. 9 of 13 in the money finishes and all at this level, the bad news is the level is state bred maiden claiming. The two best speed figures are not that far away from normal, indicating that they might be inflated because of being at a slightly higher level. The "speed" is drawn just outside of him and he does promise to get a very nice clean stalking trip here. The speed horse Merger of Banks has shown some fight while on the lead and the trainer blew his chance to break the maiden by moving him up to open MSW company instead of keeping him where he belongs. All the horses here look like they want to be close to the lead at the end but refuse to pass anyone when it counts. Top 3 contenders in order are Merger of Banks, Burkie, and Barefoot Angel.

Agree that Carmine's Honor is the best value at 10-1 with the drop in distance, early running style, reasonable class drop and jockey change to Irad Ortiz. But was scratched June 24, I don't know why. Barefoot Angel and Merger are too chalky for me.

That #4 The I Man is 4-1 where Burkie, who finished behind the fave BA, is 8-1, is a flag to me. I surmise that The I Man is an improving horse figured to at least hit the board.

If I play I would consider #5 Mr. Skittles as a 20-1 exotics bomber. Though has poor speed figs is dropping in distance and back to dirt, good enough for a long shot. But not sure if a tri or super would be worth it here.

I'm in the same camp as the others. I think :2: Carmine's Honor offers the most value in this spot. :3: Burkie has every right to improve as well, a 3 YO who showed more gate speed last out running w/o the hood.

:3: / :2: Exacta box.

speed
 

:7:might be long gone

That race on June 3rd where Barefoot Angel placed second is interesting. Winner Foolish Ghost was ML 20-1 and final 60-1, a 'hidden' class dropper who had run in two maiden special weights previously and in this race had a nice run on/near the lead the whole way. So Barefoot Angel wasn't really "second" at this level. But he goes wide on the turn and in the stretch drifts out and keeps trying to look to the outside but refocuses to gain place when urged. I don't know if that was the jock playing chess to block the two horses behind him or an inefficiency with the horse. :confused:

The :1:, :5: and :8: can be eliminated at first glance...and the :2: is eliminated after the second glance. There is better speed in the race...and the :2: has given no indication that he is capable of closing ground in a race.

:3: shows a solid race last out, with a sharp second fraction (significant in a maiden claimer) while racing wide. He also showed much-improved early speed in his last, compared to his prior races...a dependable indication of greater improvement yet to come. Still, he isn't as fast as his remaining rivals...and can only be played at odds of at least 7-1, IMO.

:4: Most intriguing horse in the race...IMO. Improved nicely over his first four races...and ran a nicely-even race after the long layoff. My speed/pace figures tell me that a repeat of his second-back race puts him in the winners circle. CONTENDER...and the price could be square considering that the horse never seems to get any betting action.

:6: Money-burner...but he has shown improved consistency of late. Three of his last four laces have been honest efforts...where he was beaten by better performances than any rival here seems capable of delivering. And in his "bad" race three-back, he was coming off back-to-back grueling races...which likely took a toll on him. CONTENDER...but unplayable at his expected price.

:7: Likely second-favorite...who looks to have the pace to himself. But there is enough early speed here to keep him from getting away...and his weakening in the stretch does not warrant his expected low price. I will be surprised if he wins...which, sadly, hasn't been an altogether new development lately.

THE BET:

I like the :4: to win, but, given the intervening layoff...I'd have to get 5-1 odds...or maybe 9-2, if I am stuck at the time :). And, if the exacta payoff permits...I will also entertain a :6:-:4: exacta, as a saver. Hey...something is better than nothing. This clearly isn't the race to take the rubber band off the bankroll, however...because the maiden claimers can be a little bewildering. Good luck to all...and a Happy July 4th. :ThmbUp:

We likely won't get the 8-1 ML odds on the #3 Burkie but he's the one for me. If not Weds, he will win his next start at Sar.
Keep this guy in your mind in about 4wks....Peter Pugh is obscure but I remember he used to do well at Sar in years past.
Stay tuned

You're not going to get 10-1 on Carmines Honor , fergetaboutit ! It will be second choice when the gates open.

The maiden claimers at the mid to lower level tracks have been terrible this year.Not expecting much in these races,but the ones I have looked at are taking bad to another level.
So to me this looks like a graded stakes race by comparison.
I think the 4 The I Man finds himself in very a nice spot here...his 2 main rivals have proven they cannot be trusted and will likely be overbet.I would like him even more if I knew he was a confirmed front-runner, as I believe the 7 Merger of Banks would submit to him,and it would be a way to take out one piece of the puzzle....but we really dont know how he likes to run yet.
I like betting smaller barns and something near the ML would be acceptable to me.

pass, but interested to see it play out
 

I voted "I don't know".

:6: Barefoot Angel is the epitome of the money-burner type. However, he's up against a weak field and looks to be a winner.

:7: Merger Of Banks is mildly interesting in that he may be the controlling speed. Not as strong as the favorite, and he's also 0-for-13.

Really wanted to like the :8:. I don't like his replays. Seen Sciacca score in these types of races before, but this one doesn't qualify for me.

:2: is dropping to his lowest class level, and draws a top jock. I just can't like this horse.

:3: showed signs of life last time. Maybe passes faders as a decent value under the exacta?

:4: Not my type bet, but some things to like. Could be running late with the :3: for a piece.


Interesting race. I wonder how low Barefoot Angel will be bet down to, and if he'll get it done??

Lot's of good opinions in this thread. Have a good July 4th :ThmbUp:

I think history will repeat itself with Barefoot Angel outrunning Merger late. Carmine's Honor has decent excuses; sloppy track. He could survive a duel at this shorter distance with good track conditions. But BA has the best stretch run.

Will put the longer odds Burkie in place over Merger but will consider adding/swapping dependent on tote.

$1 Tri and/or 0.50$ tri adding :5: to place

:2::6: / :2::3::6: / :3::4::5::6::7:

Even if BA wins easily would still be a vulnerable fave on paper.

Most likely will finish 3rd.

Allan