Tacitus
 

Looking over it all, trip and racing luck aside I cant see him not finishing in the super. The breeding is superb. Tapit has sired 3 of the past 4 Belmont winners and he was the first foal produced by FIVE TIME grade 1 winner Close Hatches, who won 4 times at 1 1/16 and 1 time at 1 1/8. He's not locked in on being a one sided closer and can sit closer to the pace.

I agree with this. I don't have him to win, but Tapits in the KY Derby.......3rd, 4th maybe? Not sure yet where I will put him yet. Trainer knows his way around CDX, etc. took him a number of tries, (7 or 8?) but he finally won BEL ........derby yet?

I haven't had him in my top 5 but the more I've looked at him today, he's been creeping up.

To be honest, I think I let the Wood Memorial's slump this last decade sway me away which was pretty dumb. I took off the blinders after listening to the Herd Dynamics preview podcast at BRIS.

https://extra.betamerica.com/how-to-...entucky-derby/

NO RAN or Final Fraction but fits ALL the rest of the Win figures.



Contender and must use

Taxin' the Ortiz brothers . . .
 

Nice video, interesting to watch and listen to, that's what the game is all about . . . totally impressed w/what Mr. Mott had to say and how calmly and confidently he said it. Must be kinda cool out there in Kentucky in the mornings w/a thermal underneath his jacket.

I've got this colt in the top few. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Ortiz brothers run :1:/:2:. Irad is ranked #1 in the country, Jose is ranked #3; best jockeys on the best horses doesn't happen by accident. What makes Tacitus so interesting is how Tax fits it. In the Wood, Tax dusted Tacitus on the turn, Tacitus had to go get him. When he got there, I don't believe he was much the best. If Tacitus doesn't lean on Tax in the final eighth, Tax wins by daylight and Tax is goin' off way long . . . so it kinda makes it interesting w/Tax em' right there.

he showed some early foot in the wood not reflected in the pp.

that could go a long way

He's gotten two big pace setups in a row. Will he get a third one?

Maybe. Maybe not.

i don't know if tacitus makes tax look better or if tax makes tacitus look worse.

i do know that betting on wood horses in the derby has been a sure fire way to lose for a long time

Tax is a solid underneath play. Buckpasser X horse. Has run 3 times at 1 1/8. Gutsy, fights on, as honest as they come. Wood has been a strong at producing superfecta hitters. Kinda Battle of Midway-ish.

His closest Derby comp is his sire. Both won the Wood from off the pace. Tapit had a troubled trip and finished 9th as the second choice. I'm betting that Tacitus duplicates that effort.

Kentucky Derby Pars and Tax last 2 races. I know its 1-1/8 against
1-1/4 but still...

the wood hasn't been strong in anything. i think i pointed this out last year or the year before. you're looking @ around 15 yrs since the last wood horse hit the board. during that time they've had multiple runners each year.

obv not every year they went with 3 or more in the derby, but if you bet on any of these horses in the KD you lost.

2018 Vino Russo Enticed Restoring Hope 9
2017 Irish War Cry Battalion Runner Cloud Computing 8
2016 Outwork Trojan Nation Adventist 8
2015 Frosted Tencendur El Kabeir 7
2014 Wicked Strong Samraat Social Inclusion 10
2013 Verrazano Normandy Invasion Vyjack 9
2012 Gemologist Alpha Teeth of the Dog 8
2011 Toby's Corner Arthur's Tale Uncle Mo 10
2010 Eskendereya Jackson Bend Awesome Act 6
2009 I Want Revenge West Side Bernie Just a Coincidence 8
2008 Tale of Ekati War Pass Court Vision 9
2007 Nobiz Like Shobiz Sightseeing Any Given Saturday 6
2006 Bob and John Jazil Keyed Entry 9
2005 Bellamy Road Survivalist Scrappy T 7
2004 Tapit Master David Eddington 11

i can't lie. tacitus has gotten good set ups and they went fast early in his last 2.

he still had to run, but there wasn't that much adversity.

you really can't depend on him running quick early and getting position, but his wood race showed that it might be possible, and he might not be that far back.

it's still dicey for him to win it all considering how bad the wood horses have been.

He doesn't come home that fast, at least on the raw clock. There are very few Derby winners that posted his final 3/8th or 1/8th. He hasn't really been flattered by anyone he beat. In my opinion, Brisnet has historically inflated Wood figures. The 106 Equibase figure is decent but a few points below a few other contenders. Further, I don't think he gets that great of a pace setup for his style. Last, he may have been getting tired at the tail end of the Wood and a cranky steward could have dinged him for Tax evasion.