Justify's true odds of winning Triple Crown.
 

I live in Las Vegas and my sportsbook occasionally offers prop bets on horse racing. There was one prop that particularly caught my interest and I wanted to see if anybody had any helpful feedback on whether this constitutes a good bet.

The bet is listed as follows:

TRIPLE CROWN
-Will Justify Win The 2018 Triple Crown Yes or No?

YES +130
NO -160

Now obviously, the book is taking out more than the standard juice (i.e., -115 instead of -110). However, my first instict was the 'NO' side offered value. We all know how difficult it is, even for a talented horse with strong connections, to win the Preakness and the Belmont. Does anybody have an opinion on whether either side offers value?

Thank you!

I would bet the NO side and if he loses the Preakness you win the bet. If he wins the Preakness you can hedge the Belmont if you fear he will win.

I was just thinking and better still take the No and place a small wager on Justify to win the Preakness. Like $20. If he wins you get some play money for the Belmont. Roll that to win on the Belmont and if he does win you should cover your No bet and if he loses you still make a profit because you only put another $20 out of pocket. Numbers will have to be adjusted according to odds but I think you get the general idea. If the odds work out right you may be able to make a profit no matter win or lose. or you could bet the $60 you gain to win if he doesn't win the triple on the Preakness and roll that into the Belmont. Worst case you break even if he doesn't and probably make money if he does. A $60 win bet rolled into Belmont has to get back more than the $100 you laid out.

nah thats a bad bet

say he is 1/9 to win the next (thats generous) and then he is 1/5 in the belmont (the whole distance thing against him) you should be getting better than +130. More like +180.

When you parlay a 1/9 and a 1/5, and they both win...what's the "fair" payoff?

on straight odds, and i have never ran 1/9 shots, but I believe its +140...so if you wanted to get some value on that I would think +180 is fair, +130 is short of the parlay.

I assumed 1/9=90% win prob and 1/5 equals 80%.

If we bet $2 to win on a 1/9 shot and it wins...we get back $2.22

If we proceed to parlay that $2.22 on the subsequent 1/5 shot and that wins too...then we get back $2.66

So...we have made a total of 66 cents by parlaying these two winners...or the equivalent of 33 cents on the dollar. And you think getting a profit of $1.30 for the same dollar from a racebook is an UNDERLAY?

Thanks, I was not sure of the math.

with that being said

I feel like he is 60% to win the next, and then 50% to win the belmont

what would they need to offer me for it to be say a 50% overlay?

Has there ever been a 1/9 in the Preakness ? I would be surprised if Justify was less than 3/5.

You are better off taking that initial $2 and buying a half of a beer.

I remember Seattle Slew at 2-5. Don't recall a lower one, but there must have been.

Wasn't Spectacular Bid 1-9?

Just checked. The Bid went off at 1-10 in the Preakness.

Fusaichi Pegasus was also 1-5.

I think it's almost certain Justify will be 1-5 or 2-5, if Good Magic doesn't come back to try him again I think the former is guaranteed