What's Your Derby Play?
 

Many years ago (before the age of simulcasting), that 25-minute break between races was social time amongst friends and other characters you could meet at the track. As a racing neophyte, I enjoyed hearing others' opinions.

I guess I have gotten sour in my later years. I still very much enjoy seeing my friends at the track, but am less enthused in hearing a 5-minute monologue on why this horse is better than that horse.

My personal preference is to make all of my bets before the first race starts, and then sit back and relax. If I win that's great; if you're sitting next to me and win [after having a different opinion] that is good, too.

So what's the point of this long-winded message? Now that the PPs are out on DRF, I have formed an opinion and will bet accordingly:

$2 exacta box 2, 8, 9, 10

$2 trifecta box 2, 8, 9, 10

$10 win #9 Skinner

$82 investment.

Would enjoy hearing others' plays, minus the long-winded reasoning behind your prognostications! (Yes, you can call me a killjoy.)

Straight Exacta: 14/9

For obvious reasons.... :cool:

Sorry, you get the reasoning because I'm not doing the work until Saturday morning! :D

Three lists:
1) Horses that beat the greatest total number of horses
2) Horses that passed the greatest total number of horses (first call --> finish)
3) Horses that faced the greatest total number of horses

There will be some commonality in the three lists. I'm going to take the top remaining horse in each list 1,2,3,1,2,3,1,2,3 until I have 5 unique horses.

Then it's a $1 exacta box - $20.

I don't mind the reasoning! I was just being cynical from having spent too many years in the Maryland press boxes listening to my friends -- some of them still working in the industry -- give a 10-minute speech on a particular horse's attributes.

Given that parimutuel wagering is actually about people having differing opinions, perhaps I should just shut up at this point. :p

I actually enjoy hearing solid rationale as to why someone is placing a wager on a particular horse. Better than reading Facebook or watching cable news these days.

Still working out a wager. My old man and I usually make a decent tri box. We've hit a couple on the Derby but they were chalky. One of these days we will knock out a fat one. I figure Forte is a top 4 type horse and will start there. I figure Verifying is an early speed that can hold up for a piece. Saez is a must use so that adds Tapit. Maybe those three as anchors in my own tri wagers. How much I win or lose before the big race might be a factor in how much I throw around for the Derby. I already have a pile of live future wagers so don't feel compelled to go gangbusters.

Derma Soto
Angel of Empire
Kingsbarns

So far I have 150 to win on mage at 20-1 on an offshore. I thought it was good value and I doubt he’s more than that on derby day

I enjoy seeing everyone’s reasoning. I look forward to your Saturday post with your final bet.

But my comment here is more on the wager itself. The $1 ex box $20.00 bet is an absolute favorite of mine for the Derby. Relatively low investment and a lot of the field covered. May not hit for a lot, but it’s great fun for little cost.

I love to talk about races and I'm as longwinded as any, but good to have a lean picks thread. This is as concise as I can be for now.

Top thee with a late-running companion:

:17: Derma Sotogake
:8: Mage
:4: Confidence Game
:9: Skinner

Two shots to augment verticals:

:1: Hit Show
:7: Reincarnate

In the super, I may sprinkle in the top two chalk defensively, and some of these bombers. Maybe require a bomb or two per chalk allowed:

:19: Lord Miles
:18: Rocket Can
:13: Sun Thunder
:20: Continuar

Playing against these upper-mid-priced contenders:

:14: Angel of Empire
:10: Practical Move
:3: Two Phil's

These two are on the bubble, but you can't play them all.

:2: Verifying
:6: Kingsbarns

Hard tosses:

:12: Jace's Road
:16: Raise Cain

$1 Superfecta Box ($24)

17 Derma Sotogake(JPN)
5 Tapit Trice
14 Angel of Empire
15 Forte

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=175983

What I like
 

:5: Tapit Thrice is moving forward, ready for a big effort
:3: Two Phil’s last race was to good to ignore
:8: Madge good mover, very agile
:13: Sun Thunder set for a big effort
:10: Practical Move pace, with good figures
:14: Angel of Empire has a solid chance
:15: Slow moving train, until he gets going

No particular order but looking at the :4: Confidence Game, :9: Skinner and :10: Practical Move.

5-9-17-15

10 Practical Move

:3: Two Phil’s W/P

Used for Exotics

:3::2::14::10::8:

Good luck to all