Trip Thieves and Targeting
 

So frequently these days I witness an occurrence perhaps more commonplace-and traditional-than I had realized: Trip theft. While the "targeting" of chalk by opposing riders intent on hooking, bumping, impeding , or floating the favorite wide has long been common in racing, a form of "shadowing" seems to take place as those jocks , at whatever place in the pack, try to provoke a "match race" with the favorite. One motivation for that must be simple narcissism-a desire to be where the action is. Another i see as spite-to make the chalk crash and burn.

In some other instances, though, probably they reason that an opponent is favored based, at least partly, on a running style flattered by pace-scenario, a projected running position, or even post and possible path-bias. I think that compels certain riders to steal trips, sometimes regardless of their own mounts ability or running -style. "If this is the way the favorite figures to win, now it's MY way to win," summarizes that thinking.

Rarely happens at major tracks. Wish it happened more often. Especially when Baffert has one in a race

Remind me not to get on your bad side. Dude, you are relentless. lol..

Sometimes, it's the only chance to try to win the race. Especially if the favorite figures to get an easy pace- you either go out there and burn him up or you finish 2nd, 6 lengths back.

If you lay off the easy-lead favorite, you may fnish 2nd and 6 lengths back. But if you engage the favorite and try to "burn him up"...then binoculars will be needed to find you at the finish line.

I do see jocks gun horses out that unexpectedly press the front runners. Tracks that I notice gung-ho tactics the most are Tampa Bay, Mountaineer, and Gulfstream

If you have the PP's for the 8th at Del Mar from today look at the rail horse and then watch how Espinoza rides him.

Mountainman I agree 100%. Are you guys not watching GP on a regular basis especially in this god forsaken Fall meet. You see when these jocks take a 50-1 bomb that on paper does not show any front and guns it to front. The smart jocks dont fall for this tatic but I have witnessed plenty of favorites chase him only to drop out of race and kill most of my pick 4, 5 and 6's.

That’s the lesson connections have learned in recent years that they didn’t fully understand years ago. That’s also why horseplayers today get frustrated when second and third best speeds take back.

The trick is to know when to go and when to sit off. You have to know your own horse and his abilities relative to horse you are thinking of challenging.

Saves a condition for the next time ;)

Attached chart and PP's

I won’t go as far as saying anyone is stiffing horses for that reason, but if you have a low level horse that’s barely competitive at its current level and you will lose a condition if he wins, you are sometimes better off financially piling up 2nds, 3rds, and 4ths in the current condition than winning and getting buried at the next one. It’s usually only true for the very lowest level horses, but I’ve had a piece of horses like that and after a win the first thing I asked myself was “now what?”. You can be in a position where your only options are to get buried repeatedly, ship out to a lower tier track, or pray.

I looked at your pdf's.....what am I supposed be seeing?

Horse with sprinter speed from the rail ceded the lead in 23.74 to a couple Bob horses. Turns out he outwardly bled so who knows, but sure wasn't very aggressive.

The 1 should have been on the lead but Espinoza never tried to get it. By the fractions they ran he should have been on the lead. Bafferts get an easy trip again.

Did bleed?

Says so right in the chart so I would guess it was coming through the nostrils.

Sorry. One of my failings is a failure to read stuff sometimes. Even though it's not an excuse for the poor early position it is for the finish.

Seems to me that a lot of 2/5 horses are followed by a 46/1 because the other horses in the race take a tactic they can't handle.

My take on this is that it only appears more commonplace because fields are shorter and there are more lone-speed, odds-on fave situations. It is easier to perceive jockeys either fighting the fave or laying back off the fave when there are just 5 or 6 horses in a race and not 10 or 12.

I've been playing too much NYRA....THAT'S WHAT I'VE COME TO EXPECT....:rolleyes:

I've been playing NYRA too much, that's what I've come to expect! :rolleyes:

https://media0.giphy.com/media/SUzpF...REz6/giphy.gif

But my contention is that beyond obvious instances when longer shots attack a front-running favorite, frequently jocks shadow the chalk, even attempting to "steal" the favorite's trip, regardless of where in the pack the favorite happens to be positioned. Sometimes, certain riders seem intent on employing the same strategy, or steering to occupy the same path, that the favorite figures to utilize.

far as i can see its called race riding. various reasons a jock would do that type of attack. of course the same jock would do it against any other horse or horses in a race to improve his position for himself and or the horse's connections. after all purses are paid out up to fifth place i believe .what would you do compete or just not ride and collect 100 odd dollars that they get . gl to all :headbanger:

Losing a condition
 

I remember sitting next to an owner and a trainer whose horse finally won after finishing second several times in a row. Couldn't help from laughing when the trainer said to him "You just lost your best friend".

I was watching a race on the rail with a trainer who placed, and I said something bland like, "Good effort....wide trip may have cost you a few lengths" and he replied, "Eh....saves a condition." I think he winked ;) when he said it. And he was from Louisiana.

some jockeys seem much better at estimating the speed and pace they are going so avoid 'match race speed duels' when they are on the favorite

So true! I recall at Fairmount 30 years ago I knew an owner with a cheap nw2 3200 claimer and when the horse won because the other horse in front bolted in mid stretch and hit the rail he jumped up and literally tossed the table upside down he was so pissed. His jockey apologized to him later saying he couldn't pull his horse it would have looked to obvious. Ironically three months later the horse won the nw3 condition.

Trigger
 

Stop that:pound: