G2 Pennsylvania Derby
 

Not sure, but I have to believe this has to be the first time in the history of this race that the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place finishers in the Kentucky Derby are looking to show up and contend in this race.

Kudos to Parx. I hope it happens and us horseplayers get a good show, and more importantly for us, a good wagering race.

This 9F race will be contended amid a number of "knowns" and not so much "knowns".

Lets get to it:

:1: Awesome Slew: Won on this very track last out from the 14 hole in a 14 horse race and now comes out of the 1 hole. Took the lead last out and never gave it back. Highly doubt the connections will change that kind of tactic. Question is, will he be fast enough to get the lead in here?

:2: Exaggerator: The dirt vs wet track issues are now real. Should be a dry track, should be a reasonable pace. If Ex isn't a wet track specialist, then this should be his fit. Especially in the 2 hole not having to give up much if any ground.

:3: Summer Revolution: Simply brilliant in his first two starts, and then a brain dead ride in the Kings Bishop. Now Smith is on board, and I don't see that as an upgrade. Distance is a huge question with all 3 career races at 7F. Summer Bird bloodlines could give some pedigree to get more than a mile, but I have to look elsewhere.

:4: Connect: A horse that was supposedly peaking going into the Travers was amid the wash that was Arrogate. Still have Brown and the switch to Castellano could be a spark. 12/1 ML is very appetizing for a horse that has won at 9 panels before.

:5: Cupid: Speed is his weapon. And he has railroaded his last 2 fields by getting to the lead and waving goodbye amongst G2 competition. But lets face it. Those were OC $62K fields and this is a legit G2, if not near G1 field. He wires this field, I take up and notice. Can't see it happening.

:6: Wild About Deb: Lightly raced Eskenderaya colt is on the improve. This is a very interesting long shot. Distance shouldn't be an issue, and a hot pace could see this one rolling late and in serious contention.

:7: Gun Runner: A tough runner that seems to give his very best each time out. Ran a very good 3rd against the romp that was Arrogate in the Travers. Hard to say, but could he "bounce" off a 3rd place effort?

:8: My Man Sam: A deep closer that will need a complete meltdown to be competitive. Since his Blue Grass, he simply hasn't shown much as being a realistic Graded Stakes horse.

:9: Nyquist: Kentucky Derby champ returns to the races after his Pimlico and Haskell near disasters. This is obviously a very talented colt, that likely needed some time off to mature. Most interesting horse in the field. Can't wait to see him run again.

:10: Sunny Ridge: A much forgotten 3YO that has hit the board in a number of decent races. Lightly raced, and could be sitting on a big one as this colt matures. Scary.

:11: Discreet Lover: Deep closer (actually probably just slow) that is up against it.

:12: Hit It Once More: Hard Spun colt that is getting better nearly every time out. Will need to be on the lead or near it to have a chance. Post position is a huge problem, but connections have little option other than to send. Tough to see getting the better of these from this post.

Summary: I see a ton of speed in here, especially the 14 hole and 1 hole needing to press and compact the field creating a scramble for other speed such as Summer, Connect, Cupid, and Nyquist.

I'm strongly looking at :6: Wild About Deb and :10: Sunny Ridge to be a big part of this one.

Pretty strong.

Is this on TV anywhere?

Maybe on the East Coast, but I have to get it through either TVG or my Twinspires account.

Mad props to Parx. This is a great horse race.

Pick Insider's anaylsis
http://pickinsider.com/wp/pennsylvan...ing-breakdown/

Speed, speed, speed, speed, in a race full of speed.

Can't see it. Not even close to seeing it. Especially a Cupid/Gun Runner Exacta.

I don't know, a few of the biggest three year old races this year on dry, fast tracks with big fields have been merry-go-round races.

I'm thinking Awesome Slew will rate and has done so in the past. O'Neill has said Nyquist will be coming from the pace and Hit It Once More, coming out of restricted company, isn't fast enough to get out and clear from the far outside; he'll get caught wide and be forced to come off the pace. Cupid absolutely needs the lead and if he breaks will be hell bent on securing it. And I'm not sure others want to run with him. Awesome Slew could assume the early lead of Cupid doesn't get out.

If the 5 of 6 speeds run free, so be it. I just can't see it. Especially with Nyquist in the field.

Should be a fun race and best thing is we should all get fair value on whatever combination of runners we like. Just wish we didn't have to contend with that 30% takeout rate. Would be nice to see the PA Derby in Delaware.

Best of Luck

Wow after months of waiting someone finally approved my account :D Feels good to be able to participate.

I can't see Cupid doing anything in this race. I don't like the horse, never have.

It's on CSN Mid-Atlantic in the Philadelphia and Delmarva areas. Not much, but it's a little something.

Months?

Yes. I know it's crazy. I think I tried to sign up in June. I enjoy reading and lurk and recently noticed it let me reply last week. 3 months.

Apparently no one checks the e-mail for new account approvals much?

Gun Runner poised to win this one. Power Run in the lane past all of the speed.

May be similar to Travers

1st Cupid
2nd Nyquist

with the battle being for 3rd/4th/5th = Gun Runner /Exaggerator /My Man Sam/Sunny Ridge/Wild About Deb