Takeout doesn't affect the 7.5-1 return I get on my bets. Sports betting doesn't offer that. I don't know anything about your game but to me this is a tired argument from players who can't win in this game and I don't buy it. I'm 22 years in and I work to find my edges.

How does your current betting volume compare to what you used to wager in the past, Cincy?

I have bet 69% of the races I made lines for since December Gus. If I can't squeeze 6-1 out of it I won't bet. That usually translates to about 50% of every card I'm looking at. My numbers plummeted in March. Sub 2-1 shots were winning like mad everywhere.

I bet more these days because I believe in what I am doing. Influenced by you I became a better bettor not just a decent handicapper. That didn't happen over night for me. All the work that was in it's germination stage that I sent you has come to fruition. 2/3rds of my play is on turf. If I was reduced to dirt and at this take I could never keep up. The opportunities are just not there on dirt.

You would get more than 7.5-1 if the takeout was lower. Just as bettors on the betfair exchange who pay 5% commission make more money on each winning market than I, who pay 12%. Its all about the benjamins. Horses that pay 2.00 (odds evens 1-1)
On the exchange. Uk bettors get back 1.90, jersey bettors get back 1.76.

Allan

I can tell you one track it's not going to affect. That's Hazel Park in Michigan. This is going to be their last day of operation.

Honestly didn't know they were still running. When they first started back a few years ago I tried making speed figures for the place but found it impossible. Forgot about it since.

i just looked at baseball lines last night. the offshore places are using ten cent spreads for games under $175. for the $175-$200 they use fifteen cent spreads. above that they were using twenty cent spreads.

in the 1990's you could go to the Barbary Coast casino in Las Vegas and bet up to $500 on a game with a five cent spread. that place did a ton of action using the smaller limit and juice.

Expressbet is involved in some type of fixed odds betting in Europe and had a tremendous quarter because of that. if we had fixed odds betting in this country the game would explode no matter what sports wagering does or doesn't do.

Right on all accounts. I recently told a bookie to drop the "juicy" lines; he was setting the normal baseball lines as .20 and not .10. It is a huge difference. Most people are unaware of how big an edge jumping from one to the other is for the house.

There is too much work in fixed odds betting (for the government entities) which is why if you see it pop up, it might entirely bankrupt them here. Can you even imagine a fairly big bookmaker offering a locked price (that was reasonable) in horse racing here in the US? It would be a revelation. And a threat.

Interesting article about Sports betting in todays Bloomberg.

will hill says 60% of its Nevada bets are online,

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...ports-gambling

and that sport books margins are 18% but on line is only 8%

Allan

I would love even a truly legal 12% exchange like NJ over the 19% WPS ASD charges me on American tracks. At least WO is opening soon which gets me down to 14%.

Mth still waiting
 

Decision Day Tuesday
 

tomorrow (4/24/2018) at 10A. Maybe.

Allan

Sports Betting offers more value
 

There are different types of horseplayers. Some will exclusively play horses regardless of the vigorish. However, I have noticed many horseplayers naturally gravitate toward sports betting as they are conceptually similar.

Let me explain why I almost NEVER bet horses anymore. In Nevada (and other states) you receive a pitiful rebate or nothing at all. One day, I walked into a nearby race book and started inquiring about the live betting sports app. The difference in takeout between horse racing and sports betting is exceptional. Assuming you win about 50% percent of your bets, you pay about 4.55% on a typical sports wager. This percentage is even lower on certain bets at certain casinos. For example, I just studied the overnight for the Braves/Reds game. The Reds offer even money and the Braves ask you to pay $110 to win $100. This means the takeout is below 3%. I could conveniently place a bet on this game right now through my smart phone. Additionally, casinos are offering in-game wagering through smart phone apps. The takeout is generally increased on these wagers (e.g., -115 on each side), but the odds constantly fluctuate, which helps savvy bettors find value.

Currently, I allocate about 5% of my play to horseracing. The horseracing industry has decided that a chosen few will receive reasonable takeout, while the average sucker is subjected to ridiculous takeout such as 17% takeout on win bets. Takeout of 23% or more is not uncommon on exotic wagers. Trying to stay alive under these circumstances, in the absence of meaningful rebates, is an exercise in futility. Sports betting offers more appeal to most bettors, as they will generally lose a lot less and have a larger menu of wagering options.