help me understand Derby faves
 

______________


according to my google search KY Derby faves have won 56 of 146 times or 38.3%

I believe overall in racing the % is about 33%

this factoid about the Derby seems really unlikely to me
of course it could just be a statistical anomaly
but I tend to doubt it


the think that makes it so amazing to me is that there are usually 20 or close to 20 horses in the field

you would think (anyway I would think) that with such large fields the % of winning faves would drop

why didn't the very large fields cause the % to drop?


thanks


.

I believe you will find that overall in racing the percentage of winning favorites is now close to 38%.

1) It is the most analyzed race in North America, possibly the world.

2) With the prestige of winning comes an all out performance from the trainer and jockey and therefore the horse.

It wasn’t always 20 horses 🐎, derby fever pretty much caused the point system. The other thing is there is an ebb and flow to favorites winning. Recently, with the points it’s been kind of chalky. Years ago when any speedball could enter the race would pace melt more than it does now. There was a period when I was younger that the chalk was practically a toss.

The average 'capper is overwhelmed by recency...Many winners did not win their last outing before the big dance.

Isn't that the opposite of the original poster's point? It doesn't seem like bettors have been overwhelmed at all by the Derby.

Not only that, the majority of recent winners entered the Derby off a win.

Accuracy is rarely a prerequisite.

Way back in the day.

There were many very short price favorites and many very short fields.

I was under the impression that the point system is the reason the race is so warped as of recent.

Warped? How so?

In that it changed the type of horses that ran in it. I mean I'm just basically agreeing with the quote in the post. Maybe warped is a poor choice of word on my part.