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-   -   The Bad Beat thread. (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=103720)

Stillriledup 02-14-2015 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
There's a couple minutes between the time when he reared up and injured the jockey, where you are in 'limbo'... You don't know if the jock is going to try to be tough, and run what is now essentially a dead entry around the track. You also have basically a whole new betting scenario now. It's the favorite and assuming he is scratched that changes the whole race, in terms of betting and the pace setup.

SRU makes a solid point as well, in that if you had bet against a "false favorite" who is now scratched, you have an altered situation.

The jock was injured and they ended up saying that the horse was slightly injured. Wasn't clear whether that was true or whether the jock was injured and the pools were closed and the horses loaded, so they did the best thing at that point and just scratched the horse. (not making light of either injury)

If it wasn't freezing and snowing, I would have liked to see them back everyone out and give the players 3 minutes to re-wager if needed.

It turned out to be fortunate for my small bet. I got a winner that was 8/5?(can't remember) that would have been likely bet down more had everyone re-adjusted to exclude Marcy.

I would have been livid had i bet against Marcy here...i was just following a lot of other places, and since i never handicap Parx in advance because they rarely ever race, i didn't even know she was racing till i checked the entries there after your post.

There's probably nothing wrong with Marcy other than that she's a head case....but they would have had to find a jock who wanted to ride her...with everyone standing there in the snow and cold, if it was 78 and sunny, they might have waited to get a new jock, but in the elements, the best thing is to just race.

I have to imagine the betting pools would have been bigger had people had a few seconds of time to rebet......not sure why the person who's closing the pools doesn't know Marcy and her antics....if i know it, why don't they?

wonatthewire1 02-15-2015 04:01 PM

bet the 2 in the 5th at Tampa at 19-1 and lost by about 1"
did have the exacta as a backup

Stillriledup 02-15-2015 05:45 PM

How does the 11 horse get over to the 1 path BEFORE the first turn at Gulfstream in the 9th? If he gets hung or has to work harder, i catch the 78 exacta.....the 11 didnt lose one inch of ground and wasn't even used hard to clear off...if he's used at ALL, he's not 2nd.

joeslovo 02-15-2015 09:33 PM

What have they got against Wesley Ward at GP?
The 11 horse was clear of the 7 but was taken down;he just kept drifting wide but stayed well clear of the rest.

mabred 02-15-2015 10:08 PM

CARRY OVER

Robert Fischer 02-15-2015 10:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stillriledup
How does the 11 horse get over to the 1 path BEFORE the first turn at Gulfstream in the 9th? If he gets hung or has to work harder, i catch the 78 exacta.....the 11 didnt lose one inch of ground and wasn't even used hard to clear off...if he's used at ALL, he's not 2nd.

That's a legit complaint.
The jockeys have to do a better job of identifying that the favorite is on the outside, that he is likely to use his speed, and that there is a bias against horses that can not clear.
11 did use some horse to clear, but he got a much much better go of it than he should. Contreras broke 2nd fastest(per chart) and eventually ran 4th on Black Jet in that race. Debatable that Castellano ate his food in that race.

Saw the same scenario take place at turfway today a couple times. favorite posted out wide before the turn, clears uncontested, takes 1st or 2nd moneys.
Quote:

Originally Posted by joeslovo
What have they got against Wesley Ward at GP?
The 11 horse was clear of the 7 but was taken down;he just kept drifting wide but stayed well clear of the rest.

looked like he lugged out on the turn forcing the 7 to alter course.

Stillriledup 02-16-2015 06:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
That's a legit complaint.
The jockeys have to do a better job of identifying that the favorite is on the outside, that he is likely to use his speed, and that there is a bias against horses that can not clear.
11 did use some horse to clear, but he got a much much better go of it than he should. Contreras broke 2nd fastest(per chart) and eventually ran 4th on Black Jet in that race. Debatable that Castellano ate his food in that race.

Saw the same scenario take place at turfway today a couple times. favorite posted out wide before the turn, clears uncontested, takes 1st or 2nd moneys.

looked like he lugged out on the turn forcing the 7 to alter course.

You rarely see jocks use higher levels of thinking out there. Its mostly ride your own horse and not worry about or even know about your competition...you see this quite often when heavy favorites break slow from post 1 and the post 2 or 3 horse breaks way in front and doesn't angle over to the 1 path and kick dirt on the chalk and make it hard for them....they're just thinking about riding their own horse and staying in their own path and letting the chalk rush up inside so they can sit the 2 path stalking trip.

I did see a great jockey move by Nakatani in the 5th at DMR on Nov 20th. He broke well from post 3 and got over to the 1 path to box in the 3-5 shot and won the race because of it....if he lets that chalk come up inside him, he might have lost...jocks rarely do that type of move, they just get out there and stay in their path.

Stillriledup 02-18-2015 11:00 PM

Ugh, i had my LIFE on a 463 Tri at Delta in the 8th and the guy stopped riding the 5 at the top of the lane, the 3 got an AMAZING trip and just was the worst horse in creation and couldnt run 1 mile an hour to pass the 5 for 3rd.
It looked like the 3 had the top 2 horses "Dead to rights" and just couldn't pass.

Robert Fischer 02-18-2015 11:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stillriledup
Ugh, i had my LIFE on a 463 Tri at Delta in the 8th and the guy stopped riding the 5 at the top of the lane, the 3 got an AMAZING trip and just was the worst horse in creation and couldnt run 1 mile an hour to pass the 5 for 3rd.
It looked like the 3 had the top 2 horses "Dead to rights" and just couldn't pass.

I made a call. Check your results now.

Stillriledup 02-18-2015 11:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
I made a call. Check your results now.

Shut up.

Wow.

Did that just happen?

PizzaCat 02-18-2015 11:24 PM

Hope your life is worth a lot ! :p

dirty moose 02-18-2015 11:35 PM

I really hate jockeys. Check out the ride on the 3 horse in the 9th at Delta 2/18.

Stillriledup 02-18-2015 11:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dirty moose
I really hate jockeys. Check out the ride on the 3 horse in the 9th at Delta 2/18.

That was a very oddly run race.....lots of speed on paper and nobody went, the 2 speeds lined up around the track in hand, this is a 5F race and these guys were grabbing like it was a route race.....then the announcer calls a "Speed duel" there was no duel, those two jock sauntered the first 3 furlongs of that race. Not sure where the 1 was, looked good on the track and ran like he was tied to a cement box.....the guy on the 5 took the lead and just stopped riding.....not sure what to make of that event.

Stillriledup 02-20-2015 04:08 PM

You gotta be kidding me, i couldn't get a 7=5 exacta home in the 5th at Gulfstream. The 1 was "done" turning for home, probably one of the worst horses to ever race, he was visually running 1 mile an hour the entire stretch and the 5 couldn't pass him with the greatest trip in the history of horse racing.

Just awful.

thespaah 02-20-2015 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stillriledup
You gotta be kidding me, i couldn't get a 7=5 exacta home in the 5th at Gulfstream. The 1 was "done" turning for home, probably one of the worst horses to ever race, he was visually running 1 mile an hour the entire stretch and the 5 couldn't pass him with the greatest trip in the history of horse racing.

Just awful.

According to the Trakus chart, the :1: ran slightly faster and was 8 ft closer to the rail than the :5:
So I guess you can look at this one of two ways..
The :5: was "more" done than the :1:
Or the path on which the :5: was running was a bit slow....
For some stupid reason I cannot paste the link into here.
Just look at the Gulfstream website..
I have no clue all the sudden I cannot paste links into here...
But anyway, i watched the replay by backing up Gulfstream Park Live..
It looked to me like the :5: did hang. The rider was trying, urging the horse. but it just did not have it.
Yeah, it sucks when your eyes tell you this horse has that horse collared and should go right on by..and doesn't...


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