Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board


Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/index.php)
-   Handicapper's Corner (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=76)
-   -   Which Long Shot (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=159064)

Aner 07-02-2020 02:43 PM

Which Long Shot
 
To profit from exotic betting requires a mix of contenders and long shots. Picking the right long shots is critical. We all know the frequency and payback is directly correlated to the odds. I believe it is necessary to consider the longest ones possible to show a profit. Unfortunately, they seldom hit the board so run outs are long and painful.

Dave Schwartz in his study "Percentages and Possibilities, 2012", analyzed 90,020 horses with a morning line 15:1 or higher. They won 3.3% of the time and lost 35% of the money bet on them to win. Of course, one must be super selective when picking horses in this category. The only way to tell if your "good ones" are really good, is to keep track of both your picks and the ones you do not pick. You will quickly learn if you have any skill in finding those with possibility.

Looking backwards, I think I may be able separate possible ones from the impossible ones. But the proof is in picking them going forward. These long shots need not necessarily win. In exactas, trifectas, and supers one of these long shots coming in to place or show can be profitable. Races with less than 7 entries before scratches will not be considered. In cases of scratches, I'll correct the ML to 120%.

Aner 07-02-2020 02:48 PM

7/2/20

Bel 2

Maybe = PP#3
Pass = PP#4

Aner 07-02-2020 03:15 PM

Ind 1

Pass = #2,#6

Aner 07-02-2020 03:32 PM

BTP 5

Maybe =#6
Pass= #4,#7,#9,#11

Aner 07-02-2020 03:54 PM

Bel 4

Pass = #4, #8

Aner 07-02-2020 04:15 PM

Ind 3

Maybe = #7, #11
Pass = #2,#8,#10,#12

Aner 07-02-2020 04:23 PM

BTP 7

Pass = #1

Aner 07-02-2020 04:30 PM

Bel 5

Maybe #3
Pass #2,#4

Aner 07-02-2020 04:37 PM

Elp 4

Maybe #3, #8
Pass #1

Aner 07-02-2020 04:49 PM

Ind 4

Maybe #4
Pass #1, #3

Aner 07-02-2020 05:02 PM

Bel 6

Pass #1, #5, #6

Aner 07-02-2020 05:22 PM

Ind 5

Maybe #1
Pass #2

Aner 07-02-2020 05:30 PM

Bel 7

Pass #1, #4

Aner 07-02-2020 05:47 PM

Ind 6

Pass #5, #8

Aner 07-02-2020 06:00 PM

Bel 8

Maybe #2

Aner 07-02-2020 06:19 PM

Ind 7

Pass #7

Aner 07-02-2020 06:35 PM

Bel 9

Pass #3, #5

Aner 07-02-2020 06:55 PM

Ind 8

Maybe #4
Pass #8, #9

Aner 07-02-2020 08:15 PM

Los Al 7

Pass #8, #9, #10

Aner 07-02-2020 08:57 PM

Maybe Horses

11 bets (4 hit board)

Bel 5---#3 -------, -------,6.50
Elp 4---#3 41.60, 19.60, 7.00
Elp 4---#8 ------, 6.60, 3.20
Ind 5---#1 ------, 8.60, 6.00

Win 41.60-22.00 = +19.60
Place 34.80 - 22.00 = +12.80
Show 22.70 - 22.00 = +0.70

Pass Horses


32 bets (3 hit board)

Bel 6-----#1 -------, -------, -6.50
Ind 5-----#2, 43.80, 19.60, 10.40
LA 7------#7 -------, -------, 15.60

Win 43.80-64.00 = minus 20.20
Place 19.60 - 64.00 = minus 44.40
Show 32.20-64.00 = minus 31.80

Robert Fischer 07-02-2020 09:01 PM

Great thread idea.

TheOracle 07-02-2020 11:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aner (Post 2626669)
7/2/20

Bel 2

Maybe = PP#3
Pass = PP#4

Hey Aner

You passed on #4 @Bel but he came in 3rd paying $12.20 to show which was actually the biggest price of the day

Code:

1        2020-07-02        2nd race        4        Curlins Legacy (NY)        Claiming        One Mile        P J Kelly        20/1#        Turf Firm        0.0        0.0        12.2
When you stop to consider that the average win price today was a mere $6 bucks and 8 out of 9 win prices were under $8 your pick was pretty impressive

Code:

RowNum:        PgmNum:        Win$:        Place$:        Show$:        Dist:        RaceCond:TrackCond:        Fieldof:Race#:        Date:                ML        -----Horse------        -----Trainer------
1        1        6.8        3.2        2.2        1 M        Mdn SpclDirt Fast        7        1st        07-02-2020          2/1#        Sharp Starr (NY)        H DePaz
2        8        3.8        2.9        2.7        1 M        Clm        Turf Firm        7        2nd        07-02-2020          9/5#        Catch a Cab (NY)        M J Maker
3        1        7.6        4.2        3.2        1 1/16 MMdn SpclDirt Fast        7        3rd        07-02-2020          2/1#        Blackjack Davey (NY)        L Rice
4        5        5.3        3.3        2.6        6 Furl        Clm        Dirt Fast        8        4th        07-02-2020          9/5#        Flashpackinbarbie (NY)        J R Abreu
5        6        8.8        3.7        3.0        7 Furl        Clm        Dirt Fast        9        5th        07-02-2020          2/1#        Stay Fond (KY)                M Miceli
6        7        4.9        2.9        2.7        1 1/16 MAlw Op CDirt Fast        8        6th        07-02-2020          6/5#        Creed (KY)                C R McGaughey III
7        9        7.1        4.1        3.9        1 M        Alw Op CDirt Fast        8        7th        07-02-2020          5/2#        Complexity (KY)                C C Brown
8        1        3.0        2.4        2.1        1 M        Stakes        Turf Firm        6        8th        07-02-2020          4/5#        Fifty Five (NY)                C C Brown
9        4        7.0        4.7        3.8        1 1/8 M        Mdn Clm        Turf Firm        10        9th        07-02-2020          10/1#        Apollos Abraxas (NY)        K Laudati

8 Prices under $8        88.8%        Avg Win $        6                               
       
ML Odds        Win/Att        Pct        Win Amt        Cost        P / L        Pct Rtrn per $1                       
5/2        1/3        33.3%        7.1        6        1.1        18%                       
2/1        3/3        100%        23.2        6        17.2        286%                       
*All/5        4/4        100%        17        8        9        112%

*All/5 = (1/5,2/5,,,,9/5) any Morning Line ending with 5

Looks like a setup for the weekend to have some huge prices for the upcoming holiday

TheOracle 07-03-2020 11:04 AM

Right now you are just breaking even with his Claimers at Belmont overall

Code:

1        06-03-2020        10th race        4        Our Stormin Norman (KY)        Clm        Dirt Fast        6 Furl        M Kantarmaci        8/1#        S                        3.8
2        06-05-2020        1st race        1        Booby Trap (KY)                Clm        Dirt Muddy        1 1/16 MM Kantarmaci        30/1#                               
3        06-05-2020        1st race        7        Inclunation (KY)        Clm        Dirt Muddy        1 1/16 MM Kantarmaci        12/1#                               
4        06-05-2020        3rd race        12        Majestic Affair (KY)        Clm        Dirt Muddy        6.5 FurlM Kantarmaci        15/1#                               
5        06-07-2020        3rd race        2        Cotton Candy Cutie (NY)        Clm        Dirt Fast        6 Furl        M Kantarmaci        15/1#        S                        11.8
6        06-11-2020        3rd race        7        Dr. Deveras Way (KY)        Clm        Dirt Good        6.5 FurlM Kantarmaci        6/1#        P                14.2        7.7
7        06-12-2020        2nd race        8        Bertranda (NY)                Clm        Dirt Fast        6 Furl        M Kantarmaci        9/5#        P                3.4        2.4
8        06-12-2020        3rd race        6        Reed Kan (FL)                Clm        Dirt Fast        6.5 FurlM Kantarmaci        10/1#        W        10.8        6.8        4.7
9        06-19-2020        3rd race        1        Booby Trap (KY)                Clm        Dirt Fast        6.5 FurlM Kantarmaci        10/1#                               
10        06-19-2020        3rd race        1A        Talent Scout (KY)        Clm        Dirt Fast        6.5 FurlM Kantarmaci        10/1#                               
11        06-19-2020        6th race        5        Jump for Joy (PA)        Clm        Dirt Fast        6 Furl        M Kantarmaci        8/1#        P                8.6        4.6
12        06-21-2020        4th race        2        More Than Striking (FL)        Clm        Dirt Fast        1 M        M Kantarmaci        7/2#                               
13        06-25-2020        2nd race        10        Our Stormin Norman (KY)        Clm        Dirt Fast        6.5 FurlM Kantarmaci        6/1#                               
14        06-26-2020        1st race        6        Dr. Deveras Way (KY)        Clm        Dirt Fast        6.5 FurlM Kantarmaci        6/1#        P                5.2        5.7
15        06-26-2020        4th race        5        Cobra Sophie (ON)        Clm        Turf Firm        6 Furl        M Kantarmaci        15/1#                               
16        07-02-2020        5th race        5        Cotton Candy Cutie (NY)        Clm        Dirt Fast        7 Furl        M Kantarmaci        10/1#        P                4.0        3.2

ML Odds                Strts        1st        2nds        3rds        Win %        Win $        Cost        Return        % Return                                               
all odds        16        1        5        2        6.2%        $10.8        $32        $-21.2        -67%
                                               
                                                WPS %        WPS $        Cost        Return        % Rtrn        Shw $
                                                50%    $96.9        $96        $0.90        0%        43.9

Kantarmaci has these Claimers today

Code:

pick07-03-20201        07-03-2020        2nd race        5        Cobra Sophie (ON)        Claiming        One Mile        M Kantarmaci        20/1#        Turf
pick07-03-20202        07-03-2020        2nd race        11        Beach Dreaming (KY)        Claiming        One Mile        M Kantarmaci        5/1#        Turf
                                                                                 
pick07-03-20203        07-03-2020        5th race        1        Reed Kan (FL)                Claiming        Six Furlongs        M Kantarmaci        8/1#        Dirt

I have my doubts about his Turfers but #1 Reed Kan (FL) might be in the money at a pop!!!

Let's see if he can hit the board today with these at a price!!!

TheOracle 07-03-2020 11:22 AM

Noda has one that might pop today at Belmont

Code:

pick07-03-20201        07-03-2020        6th race        2        Super Twenty Seven (KY)        Alw Opt Clm        One And One SixtO Noda        30/1#        Dirt
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...24#post2627024

Let's see if he can hit the board today at a price!!!

castaway01 07-03-2020 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aner (Post 2626832)
Maybe Horses

11 bets (4 hit board)

Bel 5---#3 -------, -------,6.50
Elp 4---#3 41.60, 19.60, 7.00
Elp 4---#8 ------, 6.60, 3.20
Ind 5---#1 ------, 8.60, 6.00

Win 41.60-22.00 = +19.60
Place 34.80 - 22.00 = +12.80
Show 22.70 - 22.00 = +0.70

Pass Horses


32 bets (3 hit board)

Bel 6-----#1 -------, -------, -6.50
Ind 5-----#2, 43.80, 19.60, 10.40
LA 7------#7 -------, -------, 15.60

Win 43.80-64.00 = minus 20.20
Place 19.60 - 64.00 = minus 44.40
Show 32.20-64.00 = minus 31.80

What we don't know if you are handicapping these horses. Actually, I don't even need to know that. Just remember that this is a very small sample and you could lose 50 in a row. I'm not a "the sample has to be a million races" guy, but since I don't know the criteria I would think you'd need to do this for a while before you can bet with any confidence.

If you continue to do this and get a large enough sample that you can analyze it, the logical thing to do is break down whether you're better in certain types of races, on turf or dirt, at certain tracks, with different field sizes, etc. Then you can concentrate on what is working best for you and refine it.

Aner 07-03-2020 03:20 PM

7/3/20

Bel 3--- Pass #4

Aner 07-03-2020 03:44 PM

Lrl 5

Maybe #10
Pass #4, #5, #7, #11, #12

Aner 07-03-2020 03:50 PM

Bel 4

Maybe #10
Pass #5, #6, #9

Aner 07-03-2020 04:00 PM

GP 7

Pass #6, #7

Aner 07-03-2020 04:13 PM

Lrl 6

Maybe #6
Pass #1, #8, #11, #12

Aner 07-03-2020 04:24 PM

Bel 5

Pass #8, #9

Aner 07-03-2020 04:33 PM

GP 8

Maybe #2
Pass #3

Aner 07-03-2020 04:49 PM

Lrl 7

Maybe #7, #15
Pass #8, #10

Aner 07-03-2020 04:53 PM

Bel 6

Pass #2, #3

Aner 07-03-2020 05:04 PM

GP 9

Maybe #7

Aner 07-03-2020 05:06 PM

Elp 6

Pass #5, #6

Aner 07-03-2020 05:18 PM

Lrl 8

Pass #4, #5

Robert Fischer 07-03-2020 05:26 PM

i feel like Bel r7 could have some prices underneath

lot of wildcards in here

some good trainers and jocks w/ long shots

:2: looks like a sprinter in the flesh. FTS Bond

:4: looks ok also

:6: is 'cold' on the board, good trainer


7 11 12 / 246 / 7 11 12 / 246 = dime super

TheOracle 07-03-2020 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aner (Post 2627137)
Bel 5

Pass #8, #9

Hey Aner

Not sure if you maybe'd the #1 in the 5th at Belmont
He came through paying $15.20 across the board

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...=159064&page=2

Did you score bro

Aner 07-03-2020 05:29 PM

Bel 7

Maybe #4
Pass #2, #5


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:21 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2021 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:21 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2021 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.