Who do you call to share ideas?
 

For the last few days, my big struggle has been understanding an anomaly in racing statistics I discovered.

Specifically, "Why do Quirin ES 7-8 point horses under-perform on Saturday in comparison to Thursdays?"

Just as big a struggle was figuring out who to discuss it with. I was really looking for someone to have a philosophical discussion about WHY something was happening.

I decided to reach out to Mr. Formula! (Never done that before.)

Boy, did I pick the right guy!

After laying out the question for about 5 minutes, he provided me with where to look for an answer.

Of course, I said, "Yeah, that won't be it," but it absolutely was the right answer.

The question itself hardly matters (although it is interesting in and of itself). The point was how poignant his answer was.

He essentially said to break everything down by odds, and that will clarify whatever you are looking for.

When we did that what we found could be summed up in several statements:

"On Saturdays vs. Thursdays..."

1. "... the IV of 7-8 point horses is exactly the same as Thursday."

2. "... the $Net of 7-8 point horses is lower because the public bets those horses down."

(That may seem obvious, but it is really the rest of this that brings it all together.)

3. "... the average 7-8 point horse below 7/2 goes off at 1.56/1, which should result in a payoff of $5.12, but only pays $5.06."

"While on Thursdays, the average 7-8 point horse below 7/2 goes off at 1.61/1, which should pay $5.22, but instead, pays $5.31!"

4. In other words, on Saturdays the winning 7-8s are bet DOWN below their odds and on Thursdays they actually go UP!"


The full implication of this to a statistics-based handicapper could be enormous.


Mr. Formula gets a big THANK YOU from me!


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Who is Mr. Formula?

Exactly, who's that?

My go to guy is Mr. Algorithm

Who is Mr. Formula??????

Why, this guy of course:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=145752

At least I think...:pound:

Yes, that would be him.

Really interesting stuff I learned today as a result of asking good questions of the right guy.

"Mr. Formula" has almost 30,000 posts here...and I don't recall encountering even ONE of them.

I encounter them. I just don't understand what I'm looking at!

I would have guessed that the pools would be less efficient on Saturday because more casual fans are playing but the flip side to that is that the quality of the racing is higher on Saturday which could impact how the races are bet.

I am the lucky one then...because I don't need any more confusion. :)

saturdays
 

Most of my best days are on Saturdays

Prove you are not a program. Select all images with street numbers.

dave,

i don't call anyone but when i need equine advice i do go to penn national and wait (like frankie pentangeli in godfather 2) to be called to the table of don tonyk@hsh. :)

On fair playing tracks this is relevant information. In the summer at most tracks it is insignificant on dirt.

"Whom do you call to share ideas?"
 

I don't have anyone whom I could call...but this is an interesting question to ponder. And the better question might be: "Whom would you LIKE to call...if you had access to him without it being an imposition?" For me, it would be, in no particular order:

DeltaLover (His computer software expertise makes up for my illiteracy on the subject.)

Cj (I am unclear about the pace methodology through which he adjusts his figures.)

PaceAdvantage (Perhaps I could persuade him to reveal to me the piece of software responsible for the $60-winners that he is currently selecting.)