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-   -   Four trainers have won 41% of the G1 races run in North America so far this year. (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=167187)

Andy Asaro 10-12-2021 10:42 AM

Four trainers have won 41% of the G1 races run in North America so far this year.
 
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/t...1-competition/

Excerpt:

Four trainers – Steve Asmussen, Bob Baffert, Chad Brown and Brad Cox – have combined to win 41% of the 83 Grade 1 races run in North America so far this year, a marked increase in the success rate for racing's elite “super trainers” from just a decade ago.

Asmussen and Cox have won nine G1 races each this year, with Baffert and Brown just one behind. Throw in Todd Pletcher's six G1 wins and fully 40 of 83 (48%) of the sport's most important races have been won this year by horses from one of five stables.

Going back a decade to 2011, the dominance was not as severe. When that racing year ended, Bob Baffert led all trainers with 11 G1 wins, but the trainer with the next highest number was Dale Romans, with six, followed by Todd Pletcher, H. Graham Motion and William Mott, with five apiece.

The combined 32 G1 races won by those five trainers accounted for 28% of the 116 G1 stakes run by the end of 2011.

Andy Asaro 10-12-2021 10:44 AM

This is really bad for racing and for Gamblers. For decades the favorite win % was around 33%. Over the last several years the favorites win rate has jumped to around 39% and these four guys winning 41% of Grade 1 races is part of the reason.

classhandicapper 10-12-2021 11:29 AM

That trend is going to help drive more trainers out of the game.

cj 10-12-2021 11:41 AM

The sport needs an overhaul on a lot of levels and this is one of them.

mountainman 10-12-2021 12:08 PM

Other monopolies exist at a more cellular level in racing. Some jock agents, for instance, control much more business (and far more riders) than is healthy for the game.

And small groups of horsemen form dangerous liaisons. These sort of units result in very short fields and 1/5 walk-overs.

When insiders game the system in order to "get theirs," the product suffers.

BarchCapper 10-12-2021 12:36 PM

I was trying to figure out the other day why it is perfectly alright with me when Letruska goes out to an easy lead and smokes a Grade I field without facing a challenge, yet it drives me crazy when it happens in other big races.

Now I realize why.

lamboguy 10-12-2021 01:07 PM

the breeding farms have also figured out to breed fewer horses and create a bigger demand for the horses they sell in the auctions tripling the prices that they would have bought 15 years ago. you now have a Korean and Viet Nam contingent of people that are buying what used to be $10,000 horses and they are paying $30,000 and bring the horses back to their countries. that along with a few trainers controlling condition books and horse population's wind up giving you 5 +6 horse fields and scaring away business from the race tracks.

MJC922 10-12-2021 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BarchCapper (Post 2759667)
I was trying to figure out the other day why it is perfectly alright with me when Letruska goes out to an easy lead and smokes a Grade I field without facing a challenge, yet it drives me crazy when it happens in other big races.

Now I realize why.

Someone really should've played watchdog there though. Third quarter was so soft following that soft half it becomes a total freebie at that point. Makes no sense to give races away like this. I understand she's lone speed and the best horse on paper, whatever, but we can say that about a lot of horses that blow up and throw a slightly subpar effort now and then.

GMB@BP 10-12-2021 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj (Post 2759655)
The sport needs an overhaul on a lot of levels and this is one of them.

yup, the proliferation of these mega stables have no helped the sport in any way.

Tom 10-12-2021 02:16 PM

I understand Belmont Park is going to be renamed Chad Downs.

Robert Fischer 10-12-2021 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom (Post 2759692)
I understand Belmont Park is going to be renamed Chad Downs.

Chad is dominant, but he's all class.
:ThmbUp:
Has anyone ever broken down Brown's percentages by race, instead of by entries?
Equibase has him 695 161W 136P 102Shw $17,772,235
which is a 'meager' 23%
Many 2 and even 3 entries in races.
What's his % in well-meant races, by race?

the little guy 10-12-2021 04:25 PM

Seems to me it's at least as relevant, and I think more so, how many different owners are winning Grade 1s, and looking at how much they spend to get to that level. Owners, like bettors, are the ones putting up the money. Telling them who they can and can't use as trainers is nonsensical.

Brad Cox, Todd Pletcher, and Chad Brown had no advantages getting into the game. They started with a handful of horses. I must be crazy, but I don't see how their "domination" is the problem. At some point, others will come along and take their places or affect their results ( Brendan Walsh seems like a guy perhaps poised to enter the upper echelon ). If they aren't delivering for owners, they will lose horses and thus opportunity.

Don't a handful of riders dominate in the biggest races? Why isn't that met with similar angst?

dilanesp 10-12-2021 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the little guy (Post 2759754)
Seems to me it's at least as relevant, and I think more so, how many different owners are winning Grade 1s, and looking at how much they spend to get to that level. Owners, like bettors, are the ones putting up the money. Telling them who they can and can't use as trainers is nonsensical.

This is a straw man. Nobody is telling anyone who they can or can't use as trainers.

The issue is whether- especially in a sport that has its drug problems- dominance at the very top level by a handful of barns is a good sign.

the little guy 10-12-2021 04:44 PM

Someone needs to learn the definition of a straw man argument.

It's fine if you, or anyone, doesn't agree with me, but I didn't make a straw man argument. I didn't distort the point at all. I just don't agree it's a real issue in the game. I think it's complicated, most things are, and even if it is a "problem" I don't think it's particularly high on the list.

AndyC 10-12-2021 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro (Post 2759649)
This is really bad for racing and for Gamblers. For decades the favorite win % was around 33%. Over the last several years the favorites win rate has jumped to around 39% and these four guys winning 41% of Grade 1 races is part of the reason.




I don't know but I would assume that the favorite win % could be attributable to smaller fields.



I think it would be a much bigger problem if it was the same top 8 trainers in 2021 as it was in 2011. Four new trainers made the top 8 list in 2021.


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