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-   -   BETTING ALL NON-FAVORITE HORSES IN THE FIELD. (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=166996)

formula_2002 10-01-2021 10:46 AM

BETTING ALL NON-FAVORITE HORSES IN THE FIELD.
 
1 Attachment(s)
BETTING ALL NON-FAVORITE HORSES IN THE FIELD.

THE BET SIZE FOR ALL THE NON-FAVORITES IS DETERMINED BY THE RELATIONS SHIP OF ALL-NON-FAVORITES TO THE FAVORITE.

THE ATTACHED REPRESENTS THE WORK FOR ALL 8 RACES AT CHURCHILL DOWNS RACETRACK FOR YESTERDAY, 09-30-2021

THE TOTAL BET (COL W) = $913
TOTAL RETURNED (COL W)= $1210
THE FAVORITES WON ONLY 2 RACES
BASED ON THEY FAVORITES FAIR WIN % (COL AA) THEY SHOULD HAVE WON 2.56 RACES .
SO THEY WON BUT 78% OF THE EXPECTED WINS
MY $1 RETURN WAS $1210/ $913 = $1.32 ON THE DOLLAR

IF THE FAV WON ALL 2.56 RACES MY $1 RETURN WOULD BE $1.31
BUT THE WON ONLY 78% OF THE RACES, SO MY LONG TERM $1 WIN RETURN WOULD BE $1.32 X 0.78 = $1.029

Pretty, pretty good, if it held up.
My win bet sizes are based on the expected normalized win % for each non favorite compared to its actual normalized win %

formula_2002 10-01-2021 04:08 PM

Code:

WIN PLAYS                                  $WIN  BET SIZES SHOWN        Belmont Park*        Race 5                $WIN  BET SIZES SHOWN                # HORSES        8                                       
1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8        9        10        11        12        13        14        15        16        TOTAL BET
$6        $0        $9        $6        $0        $7        $0        $2        $6        $2        $0        $0        $0        $0        $0        $0        $36.82


formula_2002 10-01-2021 04:29 PM

the #6 wins $ 5 on a $1 play

before the gates open
QUOTE=formula_2002;2757753]
Code:

WIN PLAYS                                  $WIN  BET SIZES SHOWN        Belmont Park*        Race 5                $WIN  BET SIZES SHOWN                # HORSES        8                                       
1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8        9        10        11        12        13        14        15        16        TOTAL BET
$6        $0        $9        $6        $0        $7        $0        $2        $6        $2        $0        $0        $0        $0        $0        $0        $36.82

[/QUOTE]
my $1 return was $0.98

after the gates open
Code:

WIN PLAYS                                  $WIN  BET SIZES SHOWN        Belmont Park*        Race 5                $WIN  BET SIZES SHOWN                # HORSES        8                                       
1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8        9        10        11        12        13        14        15        16        TOTAL BET
$7        $0        $22        $7        $0        $21        $0        $2        $9        $2        $0        $0        $0        $0        $0        $0        $69.95


My $1 return was $1.53

derrick24948 10-01-2021 06:12 PM

Hey, thanks for sharing this. Really interesting.

Could you explain a little further-more simply for a non-mathematician- how you calculated the amount to bet per horse based on the odds relationship?

I'm not grasping it completely and your chart is way over my ignorant head! Thanks!

formula_2002 10-01-2021 09:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by derrick24948 (Post 2757765)
Hey, thanks for sharing this. Really interesting.

Could you explain a little further-more simply for a non-mathematician- how you calculated the amount to bet per horse based on the odds relationship?

I'm not grasping it completely and your chart is way over my ignorant head! Thanks!

thanks for your interest.
I can not share the information at this time.

The chart is a bit over done, but thats how my mind works:)

sharkey11 10-01-2021 10:15 PM

derrick its a dutching method try serching for huey mahl he had written good stuff on that . this man posting this thread is most likely the only one who under stands what hes posting hes dutching some of the entrants and leaving some with 0 bets on them . so it highly unlikely that he or anyone else can win at this type of betting .anyway best of luck :headbanger:

Red Knave 10-02-2021 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sharkey11 (Post 2757816)
hes dutching some of the entrants and leaving some with 0 bets on them . so it highly unlikely that he or anyone else can win at this type of betting

It's the 5th from Bel on Oct 1. There is a zero bet on the 2 because it was favorite, the others were either scratched or there was no horse entered.
Don't dismiss Formula's work in this game.

sharkey11 10-02-2021 12:23 PM

i dont dismiss any ones work but when a guy asks what all this means and gets told its not to be shared then i just tryed to point the fella in the right direction and besides the author of the thread seem to be the only one who knows what all this means and makes claims as to the validness on one or two races . seems to me one or two is a very small sample . well good luck to him and to yourself also :headbanger:

formula_2002 10-02-2021 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Knave (Post 2757870)
It's the 5th from Bel on Oct 1. There is a zero bet on the 2 because it was favorite, the others were either scratched or there was no horse entered.
Don't dismiss Formula's work in this game.

That's very kind of you to say

Thanks

formula_2002 10-02-2021 10:50 PM

Here is a summary of 42 recent races
there were 31 winners (26 for a profit) for 75% winners. I have not determined the true win % of the favorites

total bet = $5209, returned $5792. return on the dollar was $1.11

normalizing the bets for each race (which may be the best way to determine long term proifs (if one is to be had) was $1.01

formula_2002 10-03-2021 10:01 AM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by formula_2002 (Post 2757994)
Here is a summary of 42 recent races
there were 31 winners (26 for a profit) for 75% winners. I have not determined the true win % of the favorites

total bet = $5209, returned $5792. return on the dollar was $1.11

normalizing the bets for each race (which may be the best way to determine long term proifs (if one is to be had) was $1.01

here is the chart

formula_2002 10-04-2021 02:33 PM

here is a neat outlier on line calculator.

https://statscalculator.com

after 68 races and 46 winners, return/ bet size =$0.79,
$1 normalized bet returned $0.91

eliminating one of the three outliers (i think after more races, two of the three out liers will become normal)

after 67races and 46 winners, return/ bet size =$1.02,
$1 normalized bet returned $0.92

derrick24948 10-04-2021 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sharkey11 (Post 2757872)
i dont dismiss any ones work but when a guy asks what all this means and gets told its not to be shared then i just tryed to point the fella in the right direction and besides the author of the thread seem to be the only one who knows what all this means and makes claims as to the validness on one or two races . seems to me one or two is a very small sample . well good luck to him and to yourself also :headbanger:

Thanks Sharkey! I appreciate the info. I realize it's dutching, but how the relationship between the win odds of the favorite and other horses to determine the dutch is what I don't get. But! the original poster isn't able to share it so there's my answer. I wasn't missing anything.

sharkey11 10-04-2021 09:15 PM

all i can tell you is that dutching is not realy profitable not to say it dosent work just never worked for me and as he has shown it dosent work in his examples as i.e the .92 cent return on his wagers try hedging it might be better and gl :headbanger:

formula_2002 10-05-2021 01:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sharkey11 (Post 2758315)
all i can tell you is that dutching is not realy profitable not to say it dosent work just never worked for me and as he has shown it dosent work in his examples as i.e the .92 cent return on his wagers try hedging it might be better and gl :headbanger:

There is joy in mudville just besting the takeout;) imagine cutting an 18% vig down to 8%. Further, Imagine what a good handicapper could do with that!!


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