- - Winning Odds
( http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=172953)
| soflant |
10-19-2022 09:44 AM |
Winning Odds
I was wondering if anyone has done a study if a handicapper would bet simply bet odds what would be the best range of odds to bet on? In other words what is the best odds to bet on that show a consistent profit? I hope my questions make sense. I am free to answer all responses. Thanks in advance.
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by soflant
(Post 2836032)
I was wondering if anyone has done a study if a handicapper would bet simply bet odds what would be the best range of odds to bet on? In other words what is the best odds to bet on that show a consistent profit? I hope my questions make sense. I am free to answer all responses. Thanks in advance.
|
What odds? ML, 10mtp, 5mtp, 0mtp, FO? |
| P.Rosa |
10-19-2022 10:16 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by xtb
(Post 2836033)
What odds? ML, 10mtp, 5mtp, 0mtp, FO?
|
It doesn't matter, none of the odds show a profit.
Someone posted an ROI by odds chart a while ago, maybe he/she could post it again. |
Quote:
Originally Posted by P.Rosa
(Post 2836034)
It doesn't matter, none of the odds show a profit.
Someone posted an ROI by odds chart a while ago, maybe he/she could post it again.
|
Agree, just clarifying which odds from the question. |
| soflant |
10-19-2022 10:32 AM |
Winning Odds
Which odds range show the best winning percentage? I mean the post time odds? Hopefully I answered this correctly.
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| formula_2002 |
10-19-2022 11:51 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by soflant
(Post 2836032)
I was wondering if anyone has done a study if a handicapper would bet simply bet odds what would be the best range of odds to bet on? In other words what is the best odds to bet on that show a consistent profit? I hope my questions make sense. I am free to answer all responses. Thanks in advance.
|
The best and only odds to bet on are those that are overlays. The next question should be " how do you find overlays for long term profit". GOOD LUCK WITH THAT.:coffee: |
| soflant |
10-19-2022 11:51 AM |
Winning Odds
The chart I am looking for is for example what is the winning percentage of a 4-1 horse at post time? Now I am not looking for it's probably of winning but what is it's actual winning percentage? Thanks.
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| ranchwest |
10-19-2022 12:09 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by soflant
(Post 2836051)
The chart I am looking for is for example what is the winning percentage of a 4-1 horse at post time? Now I am not looking for it's probably of winning but what is it's actual winning percentage? Thanks.
|
It's a huge problem nowadays. There is so much late money going down that you really have no idea what the final odds will be. This week I saw a horse go from 8/1 at a few minutes to post to 3/1 as they loaded in the gates to 3/5 final odds. And ran second! It happens often.
But, there is an approximate correlation between odds and percentage of wins. So, I think the best answer to your question is that horses at 7/2 or less win most races. Of course, that does not help very much. |
| Sea Hero |
10-19-2022 01:14 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by xtb
(Post 2836035)
Agree, just clarifying which odds from the question.
|
A 4-1 tote will win about 16% of the time. |
| soflant |
10-19-2022 01:23 PM |
Winning Odds
Thanks so much Ranchwest and Sea hero.
|
| delfman |
10-19-2022 03:41 PM |
your question does not do you much good without factoring in field size.
A 2-1 horse in a 6 horse field has a MUCH greater chance of winning than a 2-1 horse in a 12 horse field.
|
| Jeff P |
10-19-2022 04:20 PM |
Here's what I have over the past year in my current database, thoroughbred races only, all tracks, from 10-19-2021 through yesterday 10-18-2022:
-- How to read: The first table shows what would've happened had a player bet $2.00 to Win, Place, and Show on every horse with odds greater than 0. Note that I included the ODDS > 0 constraint to avoid reporting horses in the data not available for betting because they were running for purse money only. Also note that the Show column in the table below understates show roi because I didn't account for races where the stewards ruled there would be no show wagering because of small fieldsize and/or presence of an overwhelming favorite likely to create a negative show pool. The same thing applies to the place column but to a much lesser extent than show. (Didn't think I'd be typing a disclaimer when I ran the query/whew.)
Code:
Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide
SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE ODDS > 0
AND [DATE] >= #10-19-2021#
AND [DATE] <= #10-18-2022#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE
Data Summary Win Place Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals 399442.34 396143.86 391176.34
Bet -526620.00 -526620.00 -526620.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L -127177.66 -130476.14 -135443.66
Wins 36355 72137 103668
Plays 263310 263310 263310
PCT .1381 .2740 .3937
ROI 0.7585 0.7522 0.7428
Avg Mut 10.99 5.49 3.77
-- How to read: The second table shows the above data broken out by incremental odds ranges (final odds) of 2.50 (one row per incremental odds range.) The first row shows odds greater than 0 up to just under 5-2. The second row shows odds greater than or equal to 5-2 to just under 5-1, etc.
Code:
By: Odds
>=Min < Max P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0.0000 2.5000 -13993.20 93148.00 0.8498 17150 46574 .3682 2.6670
2.5000 5.0000 -19834.62 107588.00 0.8156 9769 53794 .1816 1.3153
5.0000 7.5000 -14099.18 69400.00 0.7968 3929 34700 .1132 0.8201
7.5000 10.0000 -10221.58 47858.00 0.7864 1976 23929 .0826 0.5981
10.0000 12.5000 -8400.80 35076.00 0.7605 1111 17538 .0633 0.4588
12.5000 15.0000 -7471.24 26052.00 0.7132 635 13026 .0487 0.3531
15.0000 17.5000 -5655.74 20548.00 0.7248 436 10274 .0424 0.3074
17.5000 20.0000 -4308.54 16696.00 0.7419 315 8348 .0377 0.2733
20.0000 22.5000 -3708.90 13714.00 0.7296 226 6857 .0330 0.2387
22.5000 25.0000 -3596.50 11368.00 0.6836 159 5684 .0280 0.2026
25.0000 27.5000 -2483.38 10020.00 0.7522 139 5010 .0277 0.2009
27.5000 30.0000 -2885.72 8842.00 0.6736 102 4421 .0231 0.1671
30.0000 32.5000 -1965.94 7422.00 0.7351 85 3711 .0229 0.1659
32.5000 35.0000 -3202.40 6620.00 0.5163 50 3310 .0151 0.1094
35.0000 37.5000 -2195.50 5674.00 0.6131 47 2837 .0166 0.1200
37.5000 40.0000 -2370.40 5074.00 0.5328 34 2537 .0134 0.0971
40.0000 42.5000 -1905.20 4510.00 0.5776 31 2255 .0137 0.0996
42.5000 45.0000 -1586.90 3922.00 0.5954 26 1961 .0133 0.0960
45.0000 9999.0000 -17291.92 33088.00 0.4774 135 16544 .0082 0.0591
-- General trend: The lower the final odds the higher the win pct and the higher the flat win bet roi for each 1.00 wagered.
-jp
. |
| Jeff P |
10-19-2022 04:30 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by delfman
(Post 2836130)
your question does not do you much good without factoring in field size.
A 2-1 horse in a 6 horse field has a MUCH greater chance of winning than a 2-1 horse in a 12 horse field.
|
Actually it doesn't.
Here's the 5-2 incremental odds range with the data broken out by fieldsize:
Code:
query start: 10/19/2022 1:22:10 PM
query end: 10/19/2022 1:22:15 PM
elapsed time: 5 seconds
Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide
SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE ODDS >= 2.5
AND ODDS < 3
AND [DATE] >= #10-19-2021#
AND [DATE] <= #10-18-2022#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE
Data Summary Win Place Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals 20676.34 20720.00 20478.08
Bet -24692.00 -24692.00 -24692.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L -4015.66 -3972.00 -4213.92
Wins 2803 5420 7273
Plays 12346 12346 12346
PCT .2270 .4390 .5891
ROI 0.8374 0.8391 0.8293
Avg Mut 7.38 3.82 2.82
Code:
By: FieldSize
Value P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact AvgMut
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
2 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
3 -30.60 82.00 0.6268 7 41 .1707 0.7520 7.34
4 -128.92 588.00 0.7807 62 294 .2109 0.9289 7.40
5 -420.30 2684.00 0.8434 307 1342 .2288 1.0076 7.37
6 -1006.66 5736.00 0.8245 640 2868 .2232 0.9829 7.39
7 -1050.50 5518.00 0.8096 607 2759 .2200 0.9690 7.36
8 -600.00 4302.00 0.8605 502 2151 .2334 1.0279 7.37
9 -322.98 2618.00 0.8766 310 1309 .2368 1.0431 7.40
10 -364.42 1750.00 0.7918 188 875 .2149 0.9464 7.37
11 4.04 770.00 1.0052 105 385 .2727 1.2012 7.37
12 -108.92 590.00 0.8154 66 295 .2237 0.9854 7.29
13 16.00 36.00 1.4444 7 18 .3889 1.7129 7.43
14 -2.40 18.00 0.8667 2 9 .2222 0.9788 7.80
-jp
. |
| Jeff P |
10-19-2022 04:40 PM |
And here's the 2-1 incremental odds range from the above dataset broken out by fieldsize:
Code:
query start: 10/19/2022 1:34:03 PM
query end: 10/19/2022 1:34:08 PM
elapsed time: 5 seconds
Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide
SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE ODDS >= 2
AND ODDS < 2.5
AND [DATE] >= #10-19-2021#
AND [DATE] <= #10-18-2022#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE
Data Summary Win Place Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals 21639.60 21966.68 21465.50
Bet -25306.00 -25306.00 -25306.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L -3666.40 -3339.32 -3840.50
Wins 3389 6241 8024
Plays 12653 12653 12653
PCT .2678 .4932 .6342
ROI 0.8551 0.8680 0.8482
Avg Mut 6.39 3.52 2.68
Code:
By: FieldSize
Value P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact AvgMut
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 -17.60 80.00 0.7800 10 40 .2500 0.9334 6.24
4 -93.96 702.00 0.8662 96 351 .2735 1.0211 6.33
5 -561.88 2870.00 0.8042 361 1435 .2516 0.9392 6.39
6 -759.60 6170.00 0.8769 850 3085 .2755 1.0287 6.37
7 -773.16 5848.00 0.8678 795 2924 .2719 1.0151 6.38
8 -772.98 4098.00 0.8114 519 2049 .2533 0.9457 6.41
9 -393.16 2628.00 0.8504 350 1314 .2664 0.9945 6.39
10 -214.44 1706.00 0.8743 233 853 .2732 1.0198 6.40
11 -58.96 704.00 0.9163 101 352 .2869 1.0713 6.39
12 -8.76 462.00 0.9810 70 231 .3030 1.1314 6.47
13 -6.50 26.00 0.7500 3 13 .2308 0.8616 6.50
14 -5.40 12.00 0.5500 1 6 .1667 0.6223 6.60
There's actually very little variation in win rate within an incremental odds range. (Other larger samples from past years bear this out.)
-jp
. |
| delfman |
10-19-2022 07:28 PM |
your data may be right, but that does not sway my opinion. Maybe just lessens it a tad. so I change MUCH to greater.
the type of race, be it a sprint or route, for whichever type of condition is also going to factor in to the odds of a horse.
IE - betting 2-1 shots in a 12 horse field going long on the turf for any condition other than high $ stakes horses is simply stupid.
betting 2-1 shots in a 6 horse field sprinting on the dirt is MUCH smarter IMO.
your data, absolutely in no way would help anyone win $ betting horses.
there are way too many variables involved to even be having this discussion in the first place.
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