Late pick 4 at Mahoning Valley
 

My pre-race analysis of Friday's late pick 4 with a focus on horses likely to offer value. No need to waste time extoling the virtues of the likely favorites.

Race 6: Ohio-bred 5-Shanghai Prince has been almost exclusively sprinting but tries a route here. Dangerous for barn that is 3 for 9 last 14 days and jockey-trainer combo that has produced 10 wins from 20 starters the past 60 days. Looking at 6-Justenufftuff, I'm unsure how 4k claimers at former Fairmount Park and 5K claimers at Hawthorne fit with first-level allowance types at MVR but this small barn does well with its few runners and Bris late pace figs indicate this one will benefit if there's a speed duel.

Race 7: 8-Miss Treated Stars drops from open company to Ohio-bred for barn that's 18 percent, $2.61 ROI the past 30 days. 3-My Belle Michelle owns 5 wins locally, is fresh and has only run twice at this bottom level. Has a chance at good price.

Race 8: 4-Chardon shows fairly recent sharp 4F work from gate and gets subtle rider shift from D. Smith, one of worst on the grounds, to the competent Aviles. 3-Nan's Rose shows dull running lines but is wake-up candidate running for a tag for the first time.

Race 9: Top local rider Leon somehow lands on Turfway shipper 4-Majestic Ice, who is making first start for barn that has been idle recently but is high-percentage over the long term. Suspect this one will run much better than recent form indicates. 11-Dudes Lawyer drops a notch on the class ladder after good performance and figures to be forwardly placed for barn winning at 19 percent, $2.32 ROI at the meet.

Good on you for typing that up. You are more dedicated than I am..lol. Your post brings back memories of what a drudgerous task writing analysis was to me. I'd do one race and need a nap.

Beyond that, something about the process made me feel like any possible inspiration had been drained from my thoughts. And it seemed like explaining something to myself that I already knew. That's one big reason I never accept side offers to do written analysis. There is just no joy in it.

I used to enjoy penning articles for magazines, and am (perpetually) trying my hand at a novel . But racing analysis? NOT FOR LOVE NOR MONEY.

BTW-Decision to come down today on tomorrow's racing at Mvr.. and then some heavy rains Wed..followed by cold spell.......

I actually enjoy writing the analysis. If I thought people found it helpful and provided some feedback, I would do it more frequently.

Jan. 24 Late pick 4
 

My analysis of value plays in Late Pick 4 at MVR.

Race 6: Gorham's barn has been hot lately (3 for 13 last 14 days) and it appears Houghton chose 7-WEENEND BUZZ over stablemate Kissinger. Shows recent 3F bullet work for return. 5-MIDNIGHT WARSHIP must have physical issues, with long gaps between races, but when he's fresh he shows 2 wins and a close third last three times he raced fresh.

Race 7: 4-HAPPY AS YOU GO is another for Gorham-Houghton combo. Drops from open company to Ohio-bred after good performance. Ran well last time faced statebreds at this level. 3-HAMILTON DANCER is 3 for 4 lifetime but has only been favored once, in career debut on turf.

Race 8: 2-NORTHERN JOURNEY yet another for Gorham-Houghton and runs for a tag for just third time in 18 career starts. Sharp 4F work five days ago. 3-NATURAL BLING has been part of exacta in 15 of 38 starts locally and gets major rider shift to Malcolm Franklin. Benefits if the pace is hot and contested.

Race 9: 3-HOBOKEN HUSTLE takes subtle class drop and gets Franklin, who won the only time he previously rode this horse. 6-CARIN faces easier company and shows 2 wins, 2 seconds from 5 previous races with Rivera aboard. I'm against 1-SWEET BELEN, who has been idle 6 weeks since big figure win at Mountaineer. Note she did not duplicate similar strong fig a year ago when she made same move from Mountaineer to Mahoning.

Late Money in last race
 

In the finale,somebody threw a couple of thousand on Belen in the last minute,dropping the odds from 5 to 1 to 9 to 5.The horse was also bet disproportionately in the Double.

Does this happen often there?