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-   -   Monmouth wild late odds change - 8/14/2022 (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=172043)

Al Gobbi 08-15-2022 02:54 PM

Monmouth wild late odds change - 8/14/2022
 

$w1fT 08-15-2022 03:07 PM

Imagine telling a new player that your $10 winner changed to a $4.40 winner while the race was being run and then expecting that new player to stick around.

It’s a big issue that tracks need to address.

PaceAdvantage 08-15-2022 03:09 PM

That's not only awful, it's like a giant kick in the balls while having an anvil dropped on your head simultaneously as a horseplayer.

And it's not like this is Hastings Park or some other tiny track with miniscule pools.

It's enough to make someone literally quit the game.

lamboguy 08-15-2022 03:49 PM

i am going to give you a little secret, this is not new, and its not an isolated incident.

lamboguy 08-15-2022 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by $w1fT (Post 2824306)
Imagine telling a new player that your $10 winner changed to a $4.40 winner while the race was being run and then expecting that new player to stick around.

Itís a big issue that tracks need to address.

they have known about this for close to 30 years now, i am hearing they have this on their agenda 30 years from now.

PaceAdvantage 08-15-2022 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lamboguy (Post 2824318)
i am going to give you a little secret, this is not new, and its not an isolated incident.

Wow...really?

Thanks man.

MJC922 08-15-2022 05:50 PM

Second Leg Final Win Pool Odds Estimate
9-5 5-1 9-2 3-2 14-1 16-1
1 2 3 4 5 6

Horse projected 3-2 on final DD probables, so ballpark $5 horse paid $4.60. As I said a while back this isn't a problem if you do the calculations after the first leg, or better yet the tracks or the talking heads ought to provide it as a courtesy IMO. At smaller tracks this will be less reliable of course and if the track doesn't have rolling doubles that's not helpful. @ NYRA you can pretty much treat it as fixed odds.

FocusWiz 08-15-2022 06:41 PM

I have been on the other side of this where my horse's odds jumped way up (to where I would have played it) because of someone placing a huge sum on some sure shot.

I am no longer clear on what my strategy should be when I like a horse and the odds seem already too low.

I do watch the odds like a hawk looking for signs of some money coming in. I saw a small dip around 12 mtp (around when the first money starts to arrive) but nothing that indicated there was any huge money coming.

I did not save it, but I think the exactas were already reflecting some big money was involved. :4: with :1: :2: and :3: were paying a lot less than :1: :2: and :3: with :4:.

cj 08-15-2022 07:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MJC922 (Post 2824349)
Second Leg Final Win Pool Odds Estimate
9-5 5-1 9-2 3-2 14-1 16-1
1 2 3 4 5 6

Horse projected 3-2 on final DD probables, so ballpark $5 horse paid $4.60. As I said a while back this isn't a problem if you do the calculations after the first leg, or better yet the tracks or the talking heads ought to provide it as a courtesy IMO. At smaller tracks this will be less reliable of course and if the track doesn't have rolling doubles that's not helpful. @ NYRA you can pretty much treat it as fixed odds.

This is great in theory, but it doesn't work all the time. It is more a rough guide. If it was so great, tracks would show us these odds as well as the actual win pool odds.

Regardless, it doesn't change the optics.

MJC922 08-15-2022 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FocusWiz (Post 2824359)
I have been on the other side of this where my horse's odds jumped way up (to where I would have played it) because of someone placing a huge sum on some sure shot.

I am no longer clear on what my strategy should be when I like a horse and the odds seem already too low.

I do watch the odds like a hawk looking for signs of some money coming in. I saw a small dip around 12 mtp (around when the first money starts to arrive) but nothing that indicated there was any huge money coming.

I did not save it, but I think the exactas were already reflecting some big money was involved. :4: with :1: :2: and :3: were paying a lot less than :1: :2: and :3: with :4:.

That's the point of pulling down the final DD probables matrix putting it into excel and finding out what the odds are very likely to be, you don't need to look at the board anymore. 20 minutes to post you jot down the odds which are known to you and treat them as fixed odds. Now for me if I liked the 4 and made him 4-5 on paper, that's a prime bet for me at 3-2. I would bet 2% to win and that's that. Whatever it pays it pays but you definitely know it won't be 4-1. After 1000 bets you can bet your life it'll be in lockstep with the probables over a large sample size.

If he were 6-5 on probables instead of 3-2, that's below my 3-2 min prime bet cutoff so it's an automatic action bet race. I'd either sit on my hands, make an action bet of some sort on the horse (exactas whatever) or take a stab on another horse at overlay odds if one exists. No more than two prime bets per day. Action bets can TOTAL for the day no more than 2/3rds the size of one prime bet with no action bet on the card exceeding 1/3rd of a prime bet. So you make the horse even money, he's going off at even money, you can still bet a third of a prime bet if you want to maybe on exactas or a trifecta key or even a win bet, it's action, it's not critical. The prime bets are critical.

That's old school Beyer and Davidowitz on money management. Made me a consistent winner. It's once again do-able if the track has rolling doubles and decent sized pools. Unfortunately I don't have time to live-and-breathe the game anymore like a lot of people do. Maybe someday but it's a ton of work, you need to be on top of it like Serling is. Day to day that's what you do and not much else.

westernmassbob 08-15-2022 07:27 PM

There must be some window of opportunity to past post bet going on somewhere. Even if that is going on there is no guarantee the horse wins so thenwhat ? Someone should get a hold of the guy who edited tickets at autotote and maybe he can shed some light on what he thinks is going on and how. Some of the tote systems are probably still antiquated and someone could be adjusting tickets on the fly....via a computer system.

MJC922 08-15-2022 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj (Post 2824363)
This is great in theory, but it doesn't work all the time. It is more a rough guide. If it was so great, tracks would show us these odds as well as the actual win pool odds.

Regardless, it doesn't change the optics.

You may be confusing will pays. I know you recommended will pays for a long time when I complained about this very same issue for years on this board. Will pays are a rough guide so I continued to complain. With will pays you're looking at one horse in the pool, the winner of the first leg if that horse was 10-1 you're looking at less than 10% of the pool. I wont speculate why the tracks don't provide the info but the info is there for people who dig it out. People who don't dig will have to keep leading with their chin. That's a no-win situation IMO.

Al Gobbi 08-15-2022 07:39 PM

CRW is pretty much the only thing keeping handle numbers afloat at most tracks

$w1fT 08-15-2022 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MJC922 (Post 2824349)
Second Leg Final Win Pool Odds Estimate
9-5 5-1 9-2 3-2 14-1 16-1
1 2 3 4 5 6

Horse projected 3-2 on final DD probables, so ballpark $5 horse paid $4.60. As I said a while back this isn't a problem if you do the calculations after the first leg, or better yet the tracks or the talking heads ought to provide it as a courtesy IMO. At smaller tracks this will be less reliable of course and if the track doesn't have rolling doubles that's not helpful. @ NYRA you can pretty much treat it as fixed odds.

We know that. The casual or new bettor doesnt. They see that and find something else to bet on.

BarchCapper 08-15-2022 09:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by westernmassbob (Post 2824369)
There must be some window of opportunity to past post bet going on somewhere. Even if that is going on there is no guarantee the horse wins so thenwhat ? Someone should get a hold of the guy who edited tickets at autotote and maybe he can shed some light on what he thinks is going on and how. Some of the tote systems are probably still antiquated and someone could be adjusting tickets on the fly....via a computer system.

On Manitoba Derby night, Assiniboia Downs had their Jackpot pick 5 forceout. Pat Cummings related how as the first leg got ready to run, that from the time when the first horse loaded into the gate until the off, 10 CRW groups pushed the ďgoĒ button on their wagers, adding around $840,000 - EIGHT HUNDRED AND FORTY THOUSAND DOLLARS - to the pool, making up 70% of it. It makes for very bad optics when similarly hefty last second win wagers make their way into the pool and donít get reflected on screen for a few flashes, but there is nothing necessarily nefarious about it. Itís all about how their algorithms adjust for the inefficiencies between pools, and their ability to upload a variety of massive wagers right before the ďbellĒ. Iím all for ways of figuring out how to fix the optics.


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