Superfecta strategy
 

I play my top non fav pics with the next 3 or 4 horses and all with only horses 15 to one and higher for fourth. Pays massive if the favorite falters off the board. I handicap for the third and fourth spot and throw out anything thats not even competitive. Horses that have not ran 5th or better recently. Unless there is a good reason. This can really hit well.

In maiden races I give the 4th place horses the benifit of the doubt. Especially if they are fts or 2nd time out.

TRY IT... amazing payouts when you get all double odds horses on the ticket. above 10 to one.

How are you guys playing supers?? I know there are real scholars on here that specialize.

abc (non fav) with abcde with all (excluding hopeless horses) with 15 to one or higher(excluding hopeless horses)

only in races with 10 horses or more. 12 is ideal.

I usually play

ABC
ABCD
ABCDE
ABCDEF

The handicapping varies from race to race. I like using physicality on dime supers. Those have been my best hits.

before the age of the CAW this was really a very interesting wager, the payoffs used to be really good. often times you could get paid on winning by just picking the first 3 finishers and there were payoffs. The CAW today ensures that all superfectas get hit.

i used to play the 13 horse fields at EVANGELINE and on some nights you had 3 or 4 supers that paid to the first 3.

key
 

key is to find that race where the 30 to one is not a proven slug. I think maidens are ripe and turf races.

Looks good Teddy:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:


couple variations/ideas

Best earlies to best lates,,,Riding the coattails of the best of both: keys to the rest of the field.

I remember Richard Eng on Steve Byk's podcast YEARS ago throwing out a simple 'strategy' for supers:

ABC
ABC
ABCDEF
ABCDEF
$7.20

Generally recommended larger fields, of course.

A=favorite

BCD=horses NOT being bet much but who had a trainer and/or jockey with overall positive stats for the race conditions and/or track.

EF=late runners or any horse who had a history of just kind of hanging around.

Not really anything groundbreaking, I know.

YES THIS IS HOW I PLAY... KEY CONTENDER IN TOP 3 SPOTS AND LONGSHOT 4TH IN FIELDS LIKE DELAWARE 3 TODAY... MAIDEN TURF IS UNPICKABLE

supers are cool for the lotto factor

or against a chalk , or like some S type to close into a piece

multi-race wagers or supers , you hope to spread the takeout over actual multiple opinions
if you actually have 3 or 4 opinions you can really hit one

SUPERS HELP YOU SLOW DOWN
 

IT HELPS ME SLOW DOWN TO MAYBE 2 RACES A CARD. MORE FOCUS MEANS I HAVE AN ADVANTAGE OVER RUSH BETTERS AND ITS HUGE FIELDS. MORE MONEY GIVES ME AN ADVANTAGE

NO ONE can predict the 4th horse, long term...NO ONE

Agreed, generally. Would be interested to know whether or not, since favorites win the greatest percentage of races, fourth choices in the betting finish fourth the most. It would almost definitely not be beneficial knowledge parimutuel-ly but would it be predictive?

ITS MORE ABOUT FINDING THE VALUE HOG! Then you get firs 3 slots and you are assured of the hog for the last spot. Because you usually only play 3 max in 4 th spot..... chances increase in large fields of long shots winning .

Really?

You do realize it's possible to model the likelihood of a horse finishing exactly first or exactly second from the data using logistic regression and other statistical modeling techniques right?

I know that it's possible because I've actually done it.

When modeling the likelihood of a horse finishing exactly first one of the requirements when preparing the data for analysis is to create a column for your dependent variable that contains a 1 for the winner of each race and a 0 for all of the non-winners in each race.

I can't see any reason somebody couldn't prepare their data for analysis by creating a column for the dependent variable that contains a 1 for the horse in each race that finished exactly fourth and 0 for all of the other non-fourth place finishers in each race.

And from there run a logistic regression analysis on the data to generate an accurate estimate for the likelihood of a fourth place finish.

That said, if you don't want to go down the logistic regression rabbit hole, you can get a pretty good ballpark estimate just by looking at the data.

Attached at the bottom of this post is a text file that contains two cut and pastes showing what I have in my current database from July 1 2022 through yesterday July 26 2022:

#1. The Fastest Horse in the Race, or horses that are rank=1 for one of my time decayed final time speed fig factors with the data broken out by actual finish position.

#2. The Fourth Fastest Horse in the Race, or horses that are rank=4 for the same time decayed final time speed fig factor with the data broken out by actual finish position.

Note that the rank=1 horses won about 30% of the time and and finished exactly fourth about 12% of the time.

Also note that the rank=4 horses won just 10% of the time but finished exactly fourth almost 19% of the time.

Imo, it's a big enough sample that I feel confident saying that the fourth fastest horse in the race is about 19% likely to finish exactly fourth and about 1.5 times more likely than the fastest horse in the race to finish exactly fourth.



-jp

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