Rolling Vulnerable Chalk thread for Saratoga and Del Mar. Need reasons why vulnerable
 

Thread might help us all make some money this summer.

Saratoga opening Day Thursday, July 14 First Post 1:05pm

Don't play outside horses in 5F turf sprints. If favorite play against

Turf Sprints (5 furs)
 

PIC6VIC,
Which track ( Saratoga or Del Mar ) or both?

At Santa Anita and Del Mar turf sprints (other than the downhill at Santa Anita) it is an extreme disadvantage to go three wide or further around the turn. These tracks are not banked enough and the turns are much tighter than Saratoga or Belmont. They were not designed for turn sprints

Turf Sprints (5 furs)
 

Andy,
Thanks



HOPBET

DELMAR

Andy said it best

Turf Sprints
 

interesting.

I've accepted the fact that I'm Not Good at Turf Sprints.
Once in a blue moon I have an extreme trip or opinion, but for some reason these races are usually tough for me.

Me too Robert.
Will someone please explain to me how to handicap a turf sprint? (Not talking about the downhill course in SA,which is another universe.)

As Andy explained. The outside posts are at a disadvantage. One must look at replays too see which horses ran sprints at SA and DLM, if they were wide and now draw a better post it helps. Also look where the runners ran on the course, lots of your winners and in the money horses raced on the rail, but not necessarily on the lead. It does take some looking at replays

GOOD LUCK

The turf thing to follow is horses who handle going from/to the *6.5 downhill course from/to a 1mile on the turf. Those used to be pretty good overlays to crush.
Horses moving from/to Turf sprints from DMR (and back in the day HOL) to/from the *6.5f used to be underlays, and in my memory underperformed.

At DM last summer(2021) there was 105 starters that ran in turf sprints, starting from posts 7-12. Only 4 of those horses won the race they were in. There were a total of 40 turf sprints at the meet.

At DM last fall(2021), smaller sample. There were 19 total turf sprints.
Posts 7-12 posted 1 win out of 44 horses that started from those posts for turf sprints.

Thanks. Love it

I get it that starting outside in a turf sprint at DM is not the best place to be. To me, the most important factor is whether or not a horse is overbet. To summarily say that a favorite will be overbet as a result of drawing an outside post is certainly not an assumption I would base my betting decisions on. I don't believe that many serious handicappers betting large amounts of money are unaware of the post position bias. The odds should, in most cases, reflect the bias.

That’s the problem with most popular handicapping tools and insights. If you got it out of a book, on a forum, or on TV etc.. it’s unlikely to be profitable even if it’s true (and it’s not even always true :lol:).

if I'm looking at the main concepts, there's maybe only like 8-15 of them, and maybe a handful that apply significantly to a given race.

and say PROJECTED(today's)BIAS is one of them...

What I want, is several of them moving in the same direction.

he's got a problematic post draw, and I understand how the bias works and that it likely applies to this race.

He's also getting bet for 3 of the field's bigger recent figures, but they were all DREAMTRIPS that he isn't expected to get today...

now I've got two models moving in the same direction, and I've got his odds being the lowest (call that a third model), so there is some value potential.

But it has to be a case where the public is misjudging the situation. You strongly disagree with the public. Not a case with tradeoffs or flat out more significant opposing things that are greatly in his favor, and he's getting bet in spite of those vulnerable looking things.

For example, if his CLASS and SPEED is so much better than this weak field (models moving in the wrong direction) that the money is saying that he'll win in spite of these vulnerable factors.

:12: Big Brown had a terrible post in the 2008 Florida Derby, and there was a decent pace expected, and was fairly likely to be a somewhat wide into a hard pace with the short run to the first turn, but $5.00 to win on him wasn't a big underlay.