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-   -   database/numbers guys...tool to identify potential cheats? (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=156847)

elhelmete 03-11-2020 06:08 PM

database/numbers guys...tool to identify potential cheats?
 
I imagine that all the data that's collected by dedicated database guys could be used to suggest certain trainers for add'l scrutiny.

W% and WPS% over time. Then parsed out by a few criteria. I can think of a few random ones off the top of my head.

start with any notable delta in year-to-year W% and WPS%
then stuff like
1st and 2nd start off claim.
frequency +10pts BSF since last start
all controlled for conditions, pars, etc.

I wish I had a database. And some smarts.

Tom 03-11-2020 06:36 PM

Go to BRIS and see their weekly feature Trainer Stats Last 60 Days.

Everyone on that list should be considered a cheat until proven innocent. :rolleyes:

PaceMasterT 03-11-2020 11:22 PM

100s of horses and above average win percentage. Horses dropping on the track from "heart attacks", etc. It isn't that complicated if you care to look.

46zilzal 03-11-2020 11:27 PM

A trainers stats depend upon the STOCK he/she has no hands and varies wildly

Tom 03-11-2020 11:31 PM

Not only the "stock" anymore.
Got to consider the "stick" as well.

PaceMasterT 03-12-2020 12:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 46zilzal (Post 2572388)
A trainers stats depend upon the STOCK he/she has no hands and varies wildly

BS, these guys were sticking former stakes winning horses in lower level claimers and daring you to claim them. See Karl Broberg. I don't know if this image will post or not. This message board is pretty antiquated.

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...edit_Coady.jpg

jay68802 03-12-2020 12:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 46zilzal (Post 2572388)
A trainers stats depend upon the STOCK he/she has no hands and varies wildly

Wow, ****ng loberal, I wish I had a Dr. Pepper.

jay68802 03-12-2020 12:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceMasterT (Post 2572412)
BS, these guys were sticking former stakes winning horses in lower level claimers and daring you to claim them. See Karl Broberg. I don't know if this image will post or not. This message board is pretty antiquated.

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...edit_Coady.jpg

Sorry PA, looks like Joe Biden.

PaceMasterT 03-12-2020 01:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay68802 (Post 2572431)
Sorry PA, looks like Joe Biden.

Former Nebraskan. Me, not the jockey. Fonner Park Rules!!! Marvin Johnson, probably the king of the juicers before it became gouche.

jay68802 03-12-2020 02:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceMasterT (Post 2572435)
Former Nebraskan.

Sorry. :D

Sit and BS with a "friend" of his at Fonner, on a weekly basis. When he dislikes someone, it will go on forever. And if a jockey does not do what he wants, the jockey will not ride for him again. Needs to get Del a Cruz back. IMO.

eqitec 03-12-2020 10:57 AM

Database Tool To Identify Potential Cheats
 
I've been working on just such a tool over the last several years. The current state of its development is shown by accessing the link below. This contains the following:

1 - Profile of 175 Winners Trained by Jason Servis
2 - Profile of 500 Winners Trained by Todd Pletcher (for the sake of comparison)
3 - Profile of the 12 Most Recent Kentucky Derby Winners

https://www.dropbox.com/sh/783pfrsxh...bFgdnIWoa?dl=0

IMO Winners Profiles similar to these should be examined by someone in authority for every winner at every track as a "reasonability" test; i.e., does the training regimen applied to the winner by the trainer make sense from the standpoint of equine exercise kinetics? Jason Servis would have failed this test long ago.

I envision this as a "red-flagging" tool that could compel the authorities to perform further investigation of any trainer failing the test.

Tom 03-12-2020 11:04 AM

For a quick look at some trainers, go to EB and look up a trainer, say, oh......JASON Servis.

Look up his results you will see some red flags. They list his record chronologically, and give you the EB speed rating, so you can use that as a "performance" gauge. First page for good old JASON couple for big number moves out of the blue. And then back to "normal."


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