Handicapping off the will pay prices
 

Does anyone do this with regular success ? I bring this up because I have been watching Lone Star this evening and someone made a very large daily double bet and basically hid the win odds in the first leg. Race 4. Mucho Bling went off 7-1(m/l 5-1) wins race......Race 5 double will pay with the 8 horse 18.40. The next price from there is 103.00 in a 10 horse field. The 8 horse m/l is 4-1. Major tell sign and at the very least suspicious. Will see what the outcome is....

This idea was proposed in the 40s or 50s by a cat named A G Illich. All they had then was the daily double, so he would divide the will pays by the winner's price and look for a discrepancy. He called it his "secret play". I had his book when I was in high school. It makes good sense, but I never used it. I am curious to see how it goes for you.

Wow...8 horse was game ....went off second choice @3-1.....someone had some inside info on that daily double race. Both horses were very game and won by very small margins . 16.80+ 8.20 horse pays 18.40 double...yes for two dollars.

I use them, but not for handicapping purposes.

Often times you can gauge the action on your horse, especially if you are trying to see the future and get a glimpse of odds board in the following race ( is your 8-1 shot getting pounded in doubles, if so it likely isn't going off at 8-1 ). This helps me in tournament play mostly

The other way I use them is for wagering purposes to weight doubles. Typically I play 1x2 or 2x2 doubles, sometimes different but mainly those options. To give an example I may play one combination for $16 and the other for $6 if both combinations will pay around the same $400

A funny story, the first time I ever met picsix ( we met many years ago on this forum ) in person was at GP. We got crushed wagering that weekend, there were two races left, and I loved a horse in the last race of the day. We pulled up the double probables and saw that my pick was playing like a 10-1 in all of the doubles except one horse was POUNDED with him in the first leg, and this was at the championship meet on a weekend there was a lot of money in the pool. We decided to put almost everything in our pockets on that horse in the last race, we figured it may go off close to the 10-1 ml if we waited, but seeing that one really low payout made us feel like someone knew the horse would run.... It won and paid for the whole weekend.

I'm pretty sure that whales are watching this type play these days.

I don’t know. I ended up hitting the pick 5 which paid generously. .50 ticket paid just over $1,000 which included 4/5 conso money.

Odds each race: (7-1)(3-1)(3/5),(even),(8-1)

It’s an amazing payoff based on all the daily double & pick 3 payouts

Someone absolutely crushed the first DD in the sequence but let all the other payoffs get away.

Good stuff.

I don't use your play per se. I'll look for that a little now, thanks. :ThmbUp:

Once in a while I'll have a good enough opinion on the ml being wrong or a really good feel for the public's opinion of the horses, to factor in stuff like will pays from a chalk to be significant.

Nothing gets past the Whales!!

I use the will pays extensively, not so much for handicapping but mainly for information, as a better indication of the final win pool odds than the actual win pool is before post time.

I don’t really play the smaller tracks and this is one reason why. I took a quick look at numbers and (if I’m right) one race handle at Belmont is just about the whole card at Lone Star. Which means the big bets can influence the will pays way more intensively. One or a few people that think they have a good thing can influence the pay out to the point of it being ridiculous like what happened in this instance.

The advantage at these tracks are playing the picks sometimes. Because those bets are wide open and an over bet in this case can turn a not so difficult sequence into a really good will pay. Over the coarse of more races the chances of “that money” being wrong increases. I’m not saying the big bets don’t influence the will pays at big venues. We’ve all seen examples where you get underpaid at Belmont or Saratoga. But go across the street to Saratoga Harness and this literally happens like 4 or 5 times a night! When it comes to pari mutuel wagering I just prefer the largest pools and the highest quality horses. I’m really not a degenerate horse player. I’m looking for a fair chance or even an advantage that helps me win. Which means finding under lays that have as em balance of a chance . It just seems like the bigger venues give you more will pays like that over extended periods of time.

Exacta will pays
 

I do this frequently looking for longshots (usually ML's over 7-1 or 8-1) being bet down in the exactas, but still remaining fairly high in the win odds. It works pretty well at T-bred tracks, but watch out in the harness tracks where the high odds drop quickly at post time.

I usually look for a horse that's being bet fairly low in the top or 2nd slot in the exacta (watch the exacta matrix closely for a few minutes), and then bet that horse to win and place. I made a lot of money with this simple technique when Balmoral was open. One night I hit 5 longshots in a row. Ah, the good old days. I use it currently at the Big M, but I think more and more bettors are more savvy to this method nowadays.

The funny thing is, don't look at the past performances to change your bet. Even if you lose the bet, watch how mysteriously good the horse does in the stretch. You can then look at the PP's and wonder what else this driver/trainer or jockey/trainer has today and keep your eyes open for any trends.

Using Will Pays
 

I have found the DD will-pays helpful in adjusting the morning lines of the 2nd races of the DDs when they have significant scratches of horses with low original M/Ls.

There's also a lot more eyes on the larger tracks.

IMO the best use of this is to predict directionality of win odds. If the calculated odds based on other pools (prior race DD, willpays etc..) show 20-1 odds and the horse is at 40-1 it will definitely go down. It may not perfectly hit 20-1 but it will trend to that.

It can help you avoid bad bets.. a 20-1 current odds showing 2-1 imputed odds is probably a bad bet. It can also spot good bets.. a 5-1 current showing 10-1 imputed that you think has a good chance could be a very good bet.

That said.. some "whales" do now avoid betting pools that can be used for these calculations (DD/PK3). However it still works quite well.

DRF has an Imputed odds calculation on their form product and we have it in AmWager as TRU Odds. Our uses DD willpays as the primary source but also takes in PK3, current DD, current EX and current WIN into the calc. Its calculated in realtime along with odds updates.

These ex payouts obviously change as post nears. Do you look at the ex matrix early or late?

Early. Then watch what happens later near post time if the EX payouts stay near the same or get even more action. I usually watch it every flash. My pick may change thruout the betting if I see something 'better' being bet down in the exactas after every flash. Ex. I may like the 5 horse at 7-1, but see the 7 horse is being bet down in the exactas out of proportion for his current odds. The 7 horse may be like 8-1 or 10-1, so I may bet both the 5 and 7 to win and place. Try it on paper until you get used to the action.

I also tried Al Illich's 'secret DD play' as mentioned above (I have his old paperback book) and it worked out nicely for a while. Like everyone else, I still dabble with it now and then, but like the EX action better.

NorCal has a program that does the calculations for you, may wish to check it out, the trainer moves program.

I never understood why anyone would buy into a professional handicappers picks or those on track tip sheets that have the plays made even before seeing the horses before each race. Furthermore most of these on track handicappers never deviate from their original selections which are always made well before the card starts. To me that is mind boggling. Picking horses purely based on PP’s and breeding is not very smart. I get some bets you have to pick in advance but not adjusting original picks on the fly because seeing the fitness of the horse on track is preposterous l

Isn't someone using the Double Will Pays relying on information that is made prior to the race and without knowing anything about the fitness etc of a runner?

Most people don't know enough about physicality to have it be useful to look at the horses. I am of the opinion that a light knowledge of physicality is pretty dangerous to the wallet.

Yes I already stated that some bets you can’t help but to play in advance of knowing what a horse looks like on track. Just because some of us like to handicap off the will pays doesn’t mean we don’t adjust things as the races go along. Case in point I used a DD will pay to stand up a horse at Churchill over a week ago. The horse on track was all sweaty and lathered up. Adjustements were made and even though I didn’t hit that double I did far better with my other bets.

NorCalGreg has the Trainer Moves software that can do the DD second leg calculations. You do have to manually enter the dollar amounts, but it calculates the relative numbers for each horse.


**Not affiliated with Greg, other than having purchased some of his software products.

DD will pays
 

Gary Pizzagati's tote program "At The Races" reads the double pools and creates a "look back line" which is presented with the tote data for the second half of the double. It is remarkably accurate at predicting the final win pool percentage for the horses in the second half.


If you are worried by the odds crashing on your horse at the last flash, have a look at his work.


You can see it on Ken Massa's board here:


https://htr2.com/atr/at_the_races.htm

I use 'reading the tote' as a tool. There have been instances where a will pay is a "JDLR"....Just Doesn't Look Right....And I'll make an additional saver play, just to cover my(rear) in case there is something there.