Pennsylvania 18th
 

Anyone else watching tonight? Should start getting results about 820pm Eastern.

No idea something was even happening, that's how little I pay attention lately, other than what's posted here...is this going to be another chance for Dems to brag about the coming "Blue Tsunami" at the end of this year?

Trump won the district by double digits in 2016 and Democrats didn’t even bother fielding a candidate for Congress so unless it’s a Republican blowout, you’ll probably hear some more about it being a bad sign.

I am sure the media will. After all they rarely if other say anything negative about the POTUS:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

If this winds up being close or the Dems win it...

Yes its an indicator the GOP is going to get steamrolled.

Allegheny County reporting first. It’s the most Democratic of the four counties in this district. Lamb is outperforming expectations there but there still a lot of red precincts in Greene, Westmoreland, and Washington County to be counted.

No votes from Westmoreland so far. It was 1/3 of the district vote in 2016. It had a +35 Republican lean in that election. Hard to say much about results until you start to see some of these precincts come in.

Westmoreland is starting to come in. Right now it looks like Saccone edge there might not make up for Lamb’s advantage in Allegheny.

Looks like a tight race as predicted.

Not sure what is going on but you can’t get precinct level results from Westmoreland now.

87% of the vote in and Lamb is up by 1.4%. But without knowing where the remaining votes to be counted are from, there isn’t any context. All you are getting is an aggregate Westmoreland County vote. They show 88% of the County has reported but it isn’t homogeneous. It matters what part of Westmoreland is still out.

A few years ago, I might have been more into this sort of stuff...but a good part of me really doesn't care what happens...

Like ely said a little while ago (I think it was you), I just want to watch the world burn...:lol:

Smoke'em if ya got'em :cool::cool::cool:

Lamb up 0.4% with 94% reporting. Expect a recount no matter who wins.

The real takeaway of this, regardless of outcome at this point, is the GOP is gonna get trounced in the midterms.

I have always enjoyed the nuts and bolts of election campaigns. Not sure where the obsession comes from, but I’ve always been into it.

At least this is a prediction I can hold you to.

I think there is still time. The economy could float enough Republicans that they retain control of the House.

There is no doubt that Democrats have outperformed in every special election since Trump won. That’s not a good sign.

What I think will be really interesting is seeing how this shapes up for the fall and the results afterward.

Who is Trump going to invest considerable effort into like this race? Where isn't he going to? Which GOP candidates won't want him to?

And then how those groups perform in November.

He’ll spend his time in the Industrial Midwest and South where he can do some good. There will be a lot of Republicans in the West that will want his endorsement before the primary and then distance themselves after.

For the most part, this is Trump’s Party now. I’m not sure there is a reasonable path to Republican victory without him.

Didn't they lose every one of the first four or five? I remember they kept losing and losing...how many have they won that they weren't supposed to?

One? Two? More?

Right now the difference in votes is less than that received by the Libertarian candidate.

It’s not just winning or losing. This district today is an example. It’s probably redder than Alabama was in the Moore election. Lamb may very well lose but putting in play a district this red tells you that the variance from the normal partisan lean is fairly extreme.

Democrats haven’t even bothered running a candidate here since 2012.

If a Republican lost a tight race in San Francisco, that would be bad news for Democrats. The Democratic losses you reference were all out performances of the expected partisan lean of their districts.

215,000 plus votes counted. 98% of precincts reporting. Lamb ahead by less than 600 votes.

The Dems have always got some "lost" ballots somewhere, waiting to be discovered if needed. I trust they were smart enough to hire Rahm Emanuel or one of his Chicago guys as a consultant.

I not sure there is a Republican path to victory regardless of him at this point.

What I think will be interesting is how the groups in the questions i asked perform relative to their PPs.

It will be an interesting glimpse into how the GOP will shift it's platform going forward.

The oddity in precinct level results being unavailable was in the heaviest Republican County in the district. Right now I can see that 99% of those precincts have reported but I have no idea which is the 1% that hasn’t.

Washington County has 7% unreported and those remaining should slightly favor Saccone. Another 1% is in Allegheny and those will break to Lamb. The counties aren’t the same population. Washington has about 1/2 the population of Allegheny with Westmoreland in between the other two in population.

It would probably be too tight to call in any circumstance but not knowing where the Westmoreland votes are pending makes it impossible.

All of Allegheny is in with Lamb having a 755 vote lead. If I had to guess, the remaining districts in Washington County won’t give Saccone a lead. It’s definitely broken more blue than in the past and he might actually pick up some votes there.

Wish I knew what was going on in Westmoreland.

2 precincts left in Westmoreland. Lamb ahead by 95 votes.

Last I saw, they still have to count the absentee ballots. No indication of how many of those there are, but looks like nothing is final until then.

Good point. Absentee ballots received by Election Day are already counted. I’m not sure how long Pennsylvania allows for ballots afterwards, if any period.

Within 70 votes but a couple thousand absentee ballots counted tomorrow...

Recount pending but it appears Lamb has it....

Crazy.

I’m seeing a lead of over 800 votes now. Still 2 precincts pending. Went out for a walk and came back to a fairly large change. Weird.

Chicago comes through in the stretch. :p

Lots of Repubs voting for the Dem?

“The reason I put Lamb’s party ID in quotes is because he’s all but unrecognizable as a Democrat. He’s pro-gun (opposed to a ban on assault weapons), personally pro-life, has nothing nice to say about Nancy Pelosi and nothing bad to say about Donald Trump. For all intents and purposes he’s a moderate Republican, at least until the vote tonight is over. So who cares who wins this race?”

Interesting candidate. Also reading that Trump hated the Repub?

Absentee ballots counted from Allegheny County accounted for the jump.

There are 203 absentee ballots from Greene, 1190 from Washington, and 1808 from Westmoreland to be counted in the next few days.

Votes Election Day in Greene went 58.3% for Saccone, 53.7% in Washington, 57.5% in Westmoreland.

That would be a pick up of 33 votes in Greene, 88 in Washington, and 270 in Westmoreland if the absentee votes break the same. That would give Saccone about 1/2 the votes he needs to overtake Lamb.

I have no idea if the absentee ballots break red or blue compared to the overall electorate. Would need a very heavy red tilt to give Saccone the win.

All precincts in. Lamb by 579 pending absentee ballots from 3 counties above.

Here's a serious question for you guys who might know better than me.

You guys that crow about these areas that voted so heavily for Trump but are now backing away from Republicans.

Why do you think that is?

Is it Trump? He's NOT any DIFFERENT then the guy they voted for...they GOT what they VOTED for, pretty much...wouldn't you say?

So what is it? The country is doing quite well by all metrics since Trump took office.

So what is it? Serious, serious question. I'd love to know.

I'm pretty sure you guys will come up with SOME answer...but I'm guessing deep in your gut, you have not a clue why this would happen.

There is absolutely zero valid reason for it. My guess is, somehow, someway, the Dems are way more motivated than Republicans...and they are getting out the vote way more effectively...and perhaps creating lots of votes, somehow, along the way.

But there will never be a special counsel investigating that kind of election tampering...no sir.

Russia spook, on the other hand...that gets a special counsel...some ads on Facebook and Twitter gets a special counsel...

LULZ

Msnbc reporting slightly less than 1500 absentee ballots to be counted.

Answer... Fourth paragraph, first sentence... Affirmative.

Trump was elected because he wasn't Hilary Clinton. Simple as that. People like me that voted for him did so while holding our noses. Since the election, he's been the shithole Potus we knew he'd be and the nation has grown tired of his tweets, quick trigger firings, and his ever increasing disgrace to the office by his personality and lack of class.

Obama won only because he ran against a weak candidate plus a scary financial downfall that made anyone that looked like an outsider, appealing. He was a shithole of a candidate... Same for trump. He never was a good candidate. He was fortunate to run against a woman who was corrupt, didn't get her fat ass on a plane to blue Midwest states, and passed out in broad daylight in Manhattan.

Btw, the pubbie might still win this election tonight, it's very close. But trump is killing the Republican Party.