BMW HONG KONG DERBY
 

14 4 years old going 2000M on the Turf - Sha Tin 3-24-24 Race 7
Final Leg of the 4-Y-O Classic Series
Helios Express, the winner of the first legs, should be the favorite, with Massive Sovereign 2nd choice.

The contenders:

:14: Star Mac - 1 of 2 running forwardly the last 200M in the Hong Kong Classic Cup. Best late kick in the race, IMO. Problem is his jock has not been able to get him a clear stretch run last 3 races. Breaking from the rail doesn't help. If he can get outside and get a clear run for the last 300M, will win.

:7: Massive Sovereign - destroyed a field 1st time out going 2000M Hong Kong Classic Cup day. Winner of 2 races (1 awt) in Ireland. Going 1 to 10 post shouldn't really hurt him. Problem I have with this one is that Bowman collapsed his last race with an IDIOT turn move, setting MS up with a perfect trip - though it can be argued that he moved a little too soon. The one to beat.

:5: Ensued - nice effort in the Classic Cup. 2 wins at the distance. 12 post again and R Moore comes in to ride. Key for this one is not getting involved early and Moore has to get a trip with cover. Wide is to be expected but he needs cover. The better of the 2 Size horses, IMO.

:4: Chill Chibi. 3 very nice races at Happy Valley (1650M and 1800M) and the other horse to make up ground the last 200M in the Classic Cup - finishing better than Star Mac while also having traffic issues. Goes from 11 to 3 post. Sucks along and pounces late -- assuming he gets clear.

:1: Galaxy Patch - highest rated horse in the race (1 point more than Helios Express). Nice races at 1200M and ran 2nd behind California Spangle in the G1 QUEEN'S SILVER JUBILEE CUP, finishing ahead of Lucky Sweynesse and Beauty Eternal. But he got held up behind horses in the stretch (yeah, Teetan was on him:lol::lol:) and ran down tired horses that had bid trying to catch a slow paced leader. Additional 400M, 14 post, Shinn came up from AUS to work him the other day (Teetan is committed to Star Mac) and NG is top trainer. Going to let him beat me.

:2: Helios Express - Classic Cup winner - gets 14 post. Two perfect trip, rail suckup wins, last 2 races. Though, he was extremely rank last race and it looked doubtful for a few seconds that Bowman would be able to hold him. Bowman is not the best at getting good trips from outside posts. I'm expecting a wide, probably no cover trip (though the Speed Map shows him last on the rail). This horse needs to show me that it can win when it doesn't cover the least amount of ground while drafting throughout. Not using him 1st or 2nd.

Moore is probably the only one to have ridden more G1's than Bowman in the race tomorrow.
There is 5 G1s in Sydney today, and both of them are there.
Just watching the first of them now, and they are both unplaced, to James McDonald who is also in HK tomorrow

Jenny Chapman's longshot for the card is Star Mac:bang::bang::bang:

Kiss of fkn death.

I got my handle from "Parkview Pirate", a noted punter who was the Kiss of Death about 20 years ago or so at Sha Tin. For a while the broadcast crew was getting his/her LOCK of the day, always on a shorter priced favorite, always just a couple of minutes before the race when everyone had given out there selections. The news was received at first with comments like, "uh oh". Then outright groans over time as the Pirate went on an extended losing streak, the locks running midpack or worse every time.

Not sure how the track was playing last night, but looks like :7: Massive Sovereign crushed foes, and :14: Star Mac could only muster a well beaten (cursed) 10th at 23-1.

At least Jenny got the longshot part right.

jenny seems to have something good to say about 80% of the runners



maggie on the other hand, a bit more focused