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-   -   Picking pacelines (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=143282)

topgun 02-11-2018 05:59 PM

Picking pacelines
 
Hello,

I want to ask, if there is anybody on this board that feels they are a expert a picking the right pacelines. Please, I would like to hear your thoughts.

Thanks,
Gun

dlivery 02-12-2018 08:49 AM

Read the conditions of the race


Read the Past Performances from the bottom up for the history of the
horse

Form performance from the last line can tell a lot


Eliminate any horse over 30-1

mikesal57 02-12-2018 09:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by topgun (Post 2275429)
Hello,

I want to ask, if there is anybody on this board that feels they are a expert a picking the right pacelines. Please, I would like to hear your thoughts.

Thanks,
Gun

Gun..

this is what makes this game so great.....
everyone can develop their own style on playing this game...
I suggest reading books and take it from there....

This can be a starter:

back in the day, someone develop the( +, -, or a + inside a circle) )approach to assign to each paceline......then take it from that

Mike

Elliott Sidewater 02-12-2018 10:31 AM

Here are some guidelines that may help:

try to pick pacelines from the same distance structure (sprint/route) and surface (dirt/turf/synthetic)

try to find a representative race within the last 3 or 4 races, if possible.

avoid lines that appear aberrant in a good or bad sense*, or where the horse experienced trouble in the running or at the start. Where possible, avoid races that were taken off the turf.

within the context of the above guidelines, prefer a line from a race at today's track to one at another track

most important - try to pick a line that as closely as possible matches today's projected pace.

Following these guidelines may lead to contradictory choices, so when in doubt pick a line as close to the top as possible

* for example, (don't pick) the only race in the visible past performances where the horse took the lead, or a race on an off track where the field was strung out through the running.

Practice and concentration while handicapping will improve your paceline selections over time. If you can handicap a couple races per day without betting and go back after the races are run to critique your own work, that is probably the fastest way to get good at picking pacelines. It's more an art than a science, so don't expect perfection.

Dave Schwartz 02-12-2018 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by topgun (Post 2275429)
Hello,

I want to ask, if there is anybody on this board that feels they are a expert a picking the right pacelines. Please, I would like to hear your thoughts.

Thanks,
Gun

I've not used paceline selection in well-over a decade, but I can tell you how I did it then.

First, I built a set of rules that start with the most preferred/represented lines, and worked backwards. Then I fine-tuned the rules.

I can tell you that this was not an easy endeavor. It took me many hours but was worth the effort.

Eventually, I coded it into my software. (Coded it as a programmable system for the end user.)

The key to making the entire process work is to begin with 40 or 50 horses, selecting paceline(s), and formulating "Why" as a set of steps.

For example:
(My opinion)
The most representative paceline in a dirt sprint race is the most recent dirt sprint in which the horse was within a head (win or lose) at the finish.

This approach tells you how good this horse really is. If he lost and is really better than this, he would have won. If he won by a head and was actually better, it wouldn't have been so close.


Dave

jay68802 02-12-2018 11:47 AM

For older horses, besides making sure that the distance and surface match, make sure that the pace line also matches the horses running style. Younger lightly raced horses might show two or three different running styles, but older horses, especially claiming types, usually have 1 established running style.

CincyHorseplayer 02-12-2018 12:01 PM

Looking at pace is key for form's sake but picking a paceline is relatively simple. If the horse has a competitive race see how it stacks up to everybody else's competitive race. If it doesn't the analysis is over. If it does and is overlooked you might have a bet!

dlivery 02-12-2018 08:17 PM

Good points

May I ask did the horse have impact its last race or can one excuse last line and use the second line back and our evaluation again.

How much confidence would you have if the Horse record was 1-31

mikesal57 02-12-2018 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dlivery (Post 2275840)
Good points

May I ask did the horse have impact its last race or can one excuse last line and use the second line back and our evaluation again.

How much confidence would you have if the Horse record was 1-31

Answers:

1) This might surprise you and the rest...you can use any line in PP!!

2) I limit horses to 10 races...if you couldn't win by then....or a 10% win record....TOSS

Mike

mikesal57 02-12-2018 09:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz (Post 2275581)
I've not used paceline selection in well-over a decade, but I can tell you how I did it then.

First, I built a set of rules that start with the most preferred/represented lines, and worked backwards. Then I fine-tuned the rules.

I can tell you that this was not an easy endeavor. It took me many hours but was worth the effort.

Eventually, I coded it into my software. (Coded it as a programmable system for the end user.)

The key to making the entire process work is to begin with 40 or 50 horses, selecting paceline(s), and formulating "Why" as a set of steps.

For example:
(My opinion)
The most representative paceline in a dirt sprint race is the most recent dirt sprint in which the horse was within a head (win or lose) at the finish.

This approach tells you how good this horse really is. If he lost and is really better than this, he would have won. If he won by a head and was actually better, it wouldn't have been so close.


Dave

Think about this Dave...

Actually YOU ARE using paceline selections in every race you do....

maybe its not by your hand but it is your set of rules that created it..

a PC doesnt run on its own ...you told it what to do and look for in each race

Mike

atlasaxis 02-12-2018 10:20 PM

I'm no expert on that situation, but what's work best for me, is finding the best of the last three races run at today's distance and surface, and beaten by no more than 5 and 3/4 lengths. Those three races can be found anywhere in the chart or could very well be the very last three races run. I use the Taulbot pace software so these lines are automatically picked for me.

Vinnie 02-13-2018 03:06 PM

Thank you Atlasaxis:

I use the very same rules/principles when picking my own pacelines for any particular race. Love Ray Taulbot... :)

atlasaxis 02-13-2018 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vinnie (Post 2276105)
Thank you Atlasaxis:

I use the very same rules/principles when picking my own pacelines for any particular race. Love Ray Taulbot... :)

I know you do Vinnie! Good to see you again my friend! :-)

upthecreek 02-13-2018 03:29 PM

I purchased this and find it useful


https://www.master2horses.com/non-contenders.html

mikesal57 02-13-2018 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by upthecreek (Post 2276129)
I purchased this and find it useful


https://www.master2horses.com/non-contenders.html

let us know how it does..


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