thanks for the response. sure, I go against the grain of what bettors look for and emphasize what I THINK are underbet, yet important factors. last race performance is overbet imo, just based on my years of betting horses and the way human nature works, yet if the third race back is recent enough it provides a pertinent factor to base the horses speed on. get, got it, good.

I agree with Acorn here too....

While doing research , I found S3 as a top factor for getting good ROI's

Also , Dave Schwartz founded the same somewhere in his massive array of info

Mike

Question: LS6977 what ,if any, kind of research have you done in finding top factors?

For starters.....

Can you increase ML to say 10Th position , instead of 4
horse at 8-1, 10-1,15-1 can benefit from negative numbers too


Also can you do something with Race Days ?

Right now Race days cant be adjusted ..and we need to hit horses away from the races a long period of time...


Mike

Mike, I used to go to a cool site called Betmix.com. Click on Free Horse Race of the Day and look at all the slide switches for different factors that can be adjusted to find top factors. I haven't tried it in a year , but it gave good info. Best speed at the distance and ave best speed 2 of last 3 races were usually pretty good for winners as well as best E1 in last race(but maybe not ROI). I also did my own spreadsheets on factors and from experience and from reading (too many) books.

heres the problem....

every program, software , or homemade design, is "unique" to the developers understanding of the concept of what that factor involves...

take your BetMix.....say their interpretation for 'Speed" is best of last 2...


now take Handifast....say their interpretation for 'Speed" is ....20% last race + 10% of 2nd race...35 & of race 3 + 15% best this year + 20% lifetime best


I use JCapper to handicap....in that program "form" is top factor
In HF "form" would be at the bottom.....

What I'm trying to say you cannot transpose one program into another..what works for one , might not for the other....

You need to take that spreadsheet and review every winner in HF and check off what factors that horse had ranked #1...

Mike

True, but I thought Betmix uses historical data as winners accumulate to keep the 'factors' up to date. Do you use any kind of database? Or just Jcapper?
When backfitting winners into Handifast, I assume you need all the PP's for every race, but I don't have them. But I know what you're saying.

Mike I will look at M/L and the race days also. We will need to discuss it a bit though I'm sure.

Hope you don't mind, but going to put you in the spotlight here a bit.

Here's what's possible with Handifast......Mike posted these today early from Belmont. I went and checked the results and here is how he did today: Top 4 contenders and the results. Just betting the top horse you'd have $20 out and $30.30 back. 5 single winners out of 10..Not too bad.

GREAT JOB!

BEL

1...4-3-7-1 4 $4.50
2...8-7-3-1 3 $18.20
3...1-4-3-2 1 $6.50
4...1-4-3-5 3 $5.20
5...1-4-2-10 10 $12.60
6...8-6-9-7 * 6 $12.00
7...4-7-8-5 miss 1st timer won
8...8-1-6-4 8 $3.40
9...1-2-3-5 * 1 $9.20
10..2-14-13-9 2 $6.70


If you are not doing some research you might be missing the boat.

Handi:)

Thxs Handi , appreciate it ...saved me time posting results :)

Also note: Races with the *...these are races I deem as exacta box playable's..
they have to meet a certain criteria for a play...
both of these won at over $40

:)

As for race days being weighed too..

Look at the 5Th race....

If we could give a hit to horses away for many days...

maybe the winner ( #10) could have moved up a slot or 2..

as I said many times before...I'm trying to get winners into top 2 slots..

Mike

Handi or Mike, regarding a negative factor for M/L, what is that supposed to be? I never used a weight for M/L before. If a horse is 10-1 vs another horse that's 2-1, does/should the 10-1 get a negative weight? If yes, is there a cutoff of a bad M/L like above 6-1 is a negative or something? Just trying to get the most from this nifty program. Thanks.

It up to you to try what number works.....
I started with what Acorn has in his setting..-25

The way HF works now, a negative figure will penalize the TOP 4 ML horses..which is the 4 lowest odds....
hard to see right...lol

I also had no weighting before this too...what this will do is possibly lower the top TOTAL horse(s) to where a long shot might pass it...

makes sense?


Example:

Race 2 at Belmont 5-27

I posted 8-7-3-1


After apply a -25 to ML...the 3 moved into the 2nd slot $18
this didnt change much on the card but maybe some adjustments coming down the road ...

Mike

Ok, got it. Thanks. I'll do some experimenting when I get a chance.

Handi, I went to Change Analyst to make M/L a negative number, but there is no negative button. it only exists on Build Analyst. Is that a bug you can fix? Do I need to rebuild my Analysts for one negative factor?

Yes it is a bug. I forgot to change and the change analysts doesn't work right anyway. So you will have to rebuild at present. I will try and get that fixed in the near future.

Handi:)

Just found a major bug in latest version. If you use negative numbers then you are being affected. If you don't use negative numbers for any factors then you have no problem. If you do, then your factors are not really getting a negative number assignment.

I am working on fixing the bug as I write this. May take me a few days to get it done. but as soon as I do, I will release Ver 9.51 and send it to PA.

Sorry, but this happens sometimes....especially when you're an old bastard...:lol:

Oh, as a bonus I am adding Daysaway as a ratable factor. Hopefully that will make up for my nimrod move.

Handi:)

Handifast? That thing still around?



LOL heya handi...heard you were under the weather for awhile.

Glad you're back. Mikesal was the "face" of handifast in your absence...ugh

Anyhoo welcome back...lets have a friendly software tournament one of these weekends

peace out 🌽

-NCG