Who Are Your Top Derby Choices?
 

For the Derby, we like Big Brown, who is also the choice of many. There are people who are doubting the horse saying he's not experienced enough, didn't face any real competition, can't go wire to wire in the Derby, etc. However, I think we still haven't really seen what the horse can do. In his 3 easy wins, the horse was never really used. If he had someone pressing him, he could have ran even faster. Also, we like the fact that his monster prep race was on a natural dirt surface. If it does indeed rain and give us a wet track, I think it would naturally help this speed horse. The 20 post will be tough though and will probably force him to the lead early and would eliminate any chance of trying to rate the horse a bit (as in his 2nd race). It is questionable why they didn't take one of the available inside posts when there would be no speed on his outside. Enough about the chalk. We also like some longer shots. According to our analysis, Denis of Cork looks very strong. He may have been steadied in the Illinois Derby; it seemed as though he just didn't fire. This may seem like a surprise pick to some but if he puts out a performance like the Southwest, and can get the longer distance, he will be in the mix coming for home.

Also, don't rule out the filly. Eight Belles hasn't raced against the boys, but has a lot of experience and has shown some monster performances. Her last race in the Fantasy was much more impressive than most of the colts in their last preps. Also, she has some great workouts.

Gayego should also be considered, especially if the track ends up wet. We also think Recapturetheglory, Z Fortune, Smooth Air (2 for 2 on wet track), and Colonel John should be used in Tri's and Super's.

Too early to pick
 

It's the morning before Derby day and it's still too early to finalize a selection. For some of the entrants, surface condition is a huge issue. I need to see if they get the rain they expect and if the track will be drying out by post time. Given the right surface I expect a strong showing by Court Vision.

Big Brown
Eight Belles

Colonel John, followed by Eight Belles, Z Fortune, and/or Monba underneath.

Any projections
 

On rain? I've heard lots Friday night and then into Saturday morning.

Will it dry down a bit by Saturday post time?

LemonSoupKid

To ignore Pyro in this field against these pigs is like ignoring Melman's avatar if she were on a nude beach.

You just don't do it!

Pyro

Maybe you just don't do it Pyro won't hit the board will prove to be the pig.

Regression in the last two says otherwise.

My longshot pick
 

Win...Visionaire
Plc....Colonel John (box the top two)
shw...Pyro-Eight Belles-Big Brown- Gayego-Z Fortune (trifecta-Super)

$2 tri part wheel

8-10
8-10
5-6-9-20
5-6-9-20 (trifecta-Super) :ThmbUp:

Derby
 

Hi guys my top pick is colonial john won in same spd as big brown.My second would be#2 he could he can run as fast as #20 pace wise.And then thrid choice would be big brown he show's everything.But i think could very well bounce.Which think he will.Exacta box #2 #10 #20

key part wheel in all slots, several times

pyro -- garbage truck brigade

LemonSoupKid, we are also surprised that there has been not much talk regarding a possible wet track.

It seems like there is 50% chance of precipitation all day today, and 100% chance of light rain/thunderstorms starting at about 11pm and through the night. For tomorrow, it seems like 100% chance of light rain/thunderstorms in the morning up to 11am and then 70% chance from 11am on.

Colonel John is the only horse I like. Last year I picked Hard Spun.

1. ZFortune
2. Big Brown
3. Pyro
4. Visionaire

CJ
 

The wet track hurts C. John, methinks

I'll post my picks tonight.

Lemon