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-   -   When Good Chalks Go Bad @AQU!!! (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=143044)

TheOracle 01-28-2018 08:41 PM

When Good Chalks Go Bad @AQU!!!
 
Over the past three racing days at Aqueduct I’ve noticed that Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 were getting destroyed they were only winning at 18.1% prior to Sunday

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...24#post2268424

The actual Favorites were equally getting destroyed as well

It has been a while since I’ve seen such poor performances from Favorites and from what I could tell there were no weather issues.

This has been one of the warmest January’s at Aqueduct in years and the famous backstretch wind, to me, had not been a factor over the past three days

If you played long shots at Aqueduct since Thursday you were doing quite well as the average win price prior to Sunday was $14.10

However, for the rest of us, this was a complete carnage in trying to cash a ticket

If I see this type of destruction going into day a 3 and beyond I’m going to start looking at Trainers on the card comparatively to see who is giving the best return per $2 win place and show wager

FakeNameChanged 01-29-2018 08:03 AM

NYRA track bias thread-SEE
 
Pandy's well written thread on recent track bias might be a good place for you to start.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=143048

TheOracle 02-01-2018 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle (Post 2268426)
Over the past three racing days at Aqueduct I’ve noticed that Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 were getting destroyed they were only winning at 18.1% prior to Sunday

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...24#post2268424

The actual Favorites were equally getting destroyed as well

It has been a while since I’ve seen such poor performances from Favorites and from what I could tell there were no weather issues.

This has been one of the warmest January’s at Aqueduct in years and the famous backstretch wind, to me, had not been a factor over the past three days

If you played long shots at Aqueduct since Thursday you were doing quite well as the average win price prior to Sunday was $14.10

However, for the rest of us, this was a complete carnage in trying to cash a ticket

If I see this type of destruction going into day a 3 and beyond I’m going to start looking at Trainers on the card comparatively to see who is giving the best return per $2 win place and show wager


Today at Aqueduct there are 16 Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1
which makes up 28% of the entire card before scratches

Code:

RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface:
1    02-01-2018    1st race    2    B Three (NY)    Claiming    One Mile    G DiPrima    7/5#    Dirt
2    02-01-2018    1st race    3    Queenofthechannel (KY)    Claiming    One Mile    R Metivier    9/5#    Dirt
3    02-01-2018    2nd race    2    Ekhtibaar (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    One Mile    C C Brown    4/5#    Dirt
4    02-01-2018    2nd race    5    Dambrosio (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    One Mile    T A Pletcher    8/5#    Dirt
5    02-01-2018    3rd race    1    The Chamo (FL)    Maiden Claiming    Six Furlongs    G C Contessa    9/5#    Dirt
6    02-01-2018    3rd race    1A    Triangulate (KY)    Maiden Claiming    Six Furlongs    L Rice    9/5#    Dirt
7    02-01-2018    3rd race    2    Im an Ocala Dude (FL)    Maiden Claiming    Six Furlongs    M Nevin    5/2#    Dirt
8    02-01-2018    4th race    2    Astounding (KY)    Allowance    One And One Eighth Miles    J Servis    9/5#    Dirt
9    02-01-2018    4th race    5    Storm Prophet (NY)    Allowance    One And One Eighth Miles    L Rice    2/1#    Dirt
10    02-01-2018    5th race    2    Split Verdict (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    Seven Furlongs    R A Violette Jr.    9/5#    Dirt
11    02-01-2018    5th race    3    Racing Raven (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    Seven Furlongs    T A Pletcher    2/1#    Dirt
12    02-01-2018    6th race    3    City of Dreams (NY)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    W A Ward    5/2#    Dirt
13    02-01-2018    7th race    2    Tasteful (KY)    Allowance    One Mile    K P McLaughlin    2/1#    Dirt
14    02-01-2018    7th race    3    Full House (KY)    Allowance    One Mile    J A Jerkens    9/5#    Dirt
15    02-01-2018    8th race    2    Jurere (NY)    Maiden Claiming    One Mile    L Rice    6/5#    Dirt
16    02-01-2018    8th race    6    Northernstreetgal (NY)    Maiden Claiming    One Mile    G C Contessa    5/2#    Dirt

If they are still winning at a rate of only 18 to 20% then I will have to look at which Trainers have been benefiting from this situation!!!

Let's see what Nevin and Rice do today!!!

TheOracle 02-01-2018 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle (Post 2270225)
Today at Aqueduct there are 16 Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1
which makes up 28% of the entire card before scratches

Code:

RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface:
1    02-01-2018    1st race    2    B Three (NY)    Claiming    One Mile    G DiPrima    7/5#    Dirt
2    02-01-2018    1st race    3    Queenofthechannel (KY)    Claiming    One Mile    R Metivier    9/5#    Dirt
3    02-01-2018    2nd race    2    Ekhtibaar (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    One Mile    C C Brown    4/5#    Dirt
4    02-01-2018    2nd race    5    Dambrosio (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    One Mile    T A Pletcher    8/5#    Dirt
5    02-01-2018    3rd race    1    The Chamo (FL)    Maiden Claiming    Six Furlongs    G C Contessa    9/5#    Dirt
6    02-01-2018    3rd race    1A    Triangulate (KY)    Maiden Claiming    Six Furlongs    L Rice    9/5#    Dirt
7    02-01-2018    3rd race    2    Im an Ocala Dude (FL)    Maiden Claiming    Six Furlongs    M Nevin    5/2#    Dirt
8    02-01-2018    4th race    2    Astounding (KY)    Allowance    One And One Eighth Miles    J Servis    9/5#    Dirt
9    02-01-2018    4th race    5    Storm Prophet (NY)    Allowance    One And One Eighth Miles    L Rice    2/1#    Dirt
10    02-01-2018    5th race    2    Split Verdict (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    Seven Furlongs    R A Violette Jr.    9/5#    Dirt
11    02-01-2018    5th race    3    Racing Raven (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    Seven Furlongs    T A Pletcher    2/1#    Dirt
12    02-01-2018    6th race    3    City of Dreams (NY)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    W A Ward    5/2#    Dirt
13    02-01-2018    7th race    2    Tasteful (KY)    Allowance    One Mile    K P McLaughlin    2/1#    Dirt
14    02-01-2018    7th race    3    Full House (KY)    Allowance    One Mile    J A Jerkens    9/5#    Dirt
15    02-01-2018    8th race    2    Jurere (NY)    Maiden Claiming    One Mile    L Rice    6/5#    Dirt
16    02-01-2018    8th race    6    Northernstreetgal (NY)    Maiden Claiming    One Mile    G C Contessa    5/2#    Dirt

If they are still winning at a rate of only 18 to 20% then I will have to look at which Trainers have been benefiting from this situation!!!

Let's see what Nevin and Rice do today!!!

Here are the Trainers on today's card that had positive returns per $2 win place and show wager from last Thursday up until Sunday when things fell apart for the Morning Line Favorites

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...compareaqu.png

I will also be paying particular attention to G C Contessa's horses should things start go south today his horses didn't win much but they hit the board for some nice prices!!!

Code:


RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface:
1    02-01-2018    3rd race    1    The Chamo (FL)    Maiden Claiming    Six Furlongs    G C Contessa    9/5#    Dirt
                                             
2    02-01-2018    5th race    7    Power Boss (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    Seven Furlongs    G C Contessa    8/1#    Dirt
                                             
3    02-01-2018    8th race    6    Northernstreetgal (NY)    Maiden Claiming    One Mile    G C Contessa    5/2#    Dirt

He has these today let's see how he does especially in the 5th race today at Aqueduct!!!

TheOracle 02-02-2018 07:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle (Post 2270240)
Here are the Trainers on today's card that had positive returns per $2 win place and show wager from last Thursday up until Sunday when things fell apart for the Morning Line Favorites

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...compareaqu.png

I will also be paying particular attention to G C Contessa's horses should things start go south today his horses didn't win much but they hit the board for some nice prices!!!

Code:


RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface:
1    02-01-2018    3rd race    1    The Chamo (FL)    Maiden Claiming    Six Furlongs    G C Contessa    9/5#    Dirt
                                             
2    02-01-2018    5th race    7    Power Boss (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    Seven Furlongs    G C Contessa    8/1#    Dirt
                                             
3    02-01-2018    8th race    6    Northernstreetgal (NY)    Maiden Claiming    One Mile    G C Contessa    5/2#    Dirt

He has these today let's see how he does especially in the 5th race today at Aqueduct!!!

Only Nevin, Martin and Ward had positive returns across the board yesterday from the list

Contessa came through with #6 Northernstreetgal one of the few Morning Line Favorites to win yesterday at Aqueduct!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

TheOracle 02-02-2018 10:12 AM

Here are the Trainers on today's card with positive returns per $2 win place and show wager from Thursday up until yesterday at Aqueduct!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...trainlstwk.png

Since things are going strange with the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 let's pivot and concentrate on J C Englehart and D S Lalman today!!!

TheOracle 02-02-2018 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle (Post 2270756)
Here are the Trainers on today's card with positive returns per $2 win place and show wager from Thursday up until yesterday at Aqueduct!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...trainlstwk.png

Since things are going strange with the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 let's pivot and concentrate on J C Englehart and D S Lalman today!!!

Lalman has been a very good investment across the board at Aqueduct since November!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...naqufrmnov.png

Lalman is bringing back #4 Alaapatique in the 6th race today at Aqueduct

6th race
#4 Alaapatique

Let's see if Lalman can get this one to hit the board at a price today!!!

TheOracle 02-02-2018 11:22 AM

J C Englehart has these today at Aqueduct!!!

2nd race
#4 Spiral Bound

4th race
#5 Karens Gem

Let’s see if he can get these to hit the board today at a price!!!

TheOracle 02-02-2018 11:27 AM

For the Morning Lines less than 3-1 on today’s card at Aqueduct

Code:

RowNum:        Date:        Race:        PgmNum:        Horse:        RaceCond:        Distance:        Trainer:        Odds:        Surface:
1        02-02-2018        2nd race        1        Gypsy Jo (NY)        Maiden Claiming        Six Furlongs        R A Violette Jr.        5/2#        Dirt
2        02-02-2018        4th race        3        Cocktail Countess (KY)        Maiden Claiming        Six Furlongs        L Rice        5/2#        Dirt

Let’s see how these do today!!!

TheOracle 02-03-2018 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle (Post 2270768)
Lalman has been a very good investment across the board at Aqueduct since November!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...naqufrmnov.png

Lalman is bringing back #4 Alaapatique in the 6th race today at Aqueduct

6th race
#4 Alaapatique

Let's see if Lalman can get this one to hit the board at a price today!!!

Well #4 Alaapatique disappointed and ran off the board yesterday

I focused on Lalman trying to be greedy and forgot about Contessa whose horses have been giving good returns across the board

TheOracle 02-03-2018 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle (Post 2270787)
For the Morning Lines less than 3-1 on today’s card at Aqueduct

Code:

RowNum:        Date:        Race:        PgmNum:        Horse:        RaceCond:        Distance:        Trainer:        Odds:        Surface:
1        02-02-2018        2nd race        1        Gypsy Jo (NY)        Maiden Claiming        Six Furlongs        R A Violette Jr.        5/2#        Dirt
2        02-02-2018        4th race        3        Cocktail Countess (KY)        Maiden Claiming        Six Furlongs        L Rice        5/2#        Dirt

Let’s see how these do today!!!

#1 Gypsy Jo and #3 Cocktail Countess finished 2nd and 3rd respectively as Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 continue to struggle at Aqueduct!!!

It seems you can beat the Morning Line Favorites anytime you want for now

TheOracle 02-03-2018 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle (Post 2270784)
J C Englehart has these today at Aqueduct!!!

2nd race
#4 Spiral Bound

4th race
#5 Karens Gem

Let’s see if he can get these to hit the board today at a price!!!

#4 Spiral Bound and #5 Karens Gem disappointed and were both off the board for Englehart yesterday!!!

TheOracle 02-03-2018 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle (Post 2271236)
Well #4 Alaapatique disappointed and ran off the board yesterday

I focused on Lalman trying to be greedy and forgot about Contessa whose horses have been giving good returns across the board

Contessa has these at Aqueduct today

Code:

RowNum:        Date:        Race:        PgmNum:        Horse:        RaceCond:        Distance:        Trainer:        Odds:        Surface:
1        02-03-2018        1st race        3        American Road (KY)        Claiming        One Mile        G C Contessa        4/1#        Dirt
                                                                                 
2        02-03-2018        2nd race        6        Theresas Boy (NY)        Maiden Claiming        Six Furlongs        G C Contessa        3/1#        Dirt
                                                                                 
3        02-03-2018        5th race        3        Starlite Mission (NY)        Maiden Special Weight        Six Furlongs        G C Contessa        9/2#        Dirt
                                                                                 
4        02-03-2018        6th race        7        Heat Check (NY)        Claiming        One Mile        G C Contessa        20/1#        Dirt
                                                                                 
5        02-03-2018        7th race        5        Mighty Zealous (NY)        Allowance Optional Claiming        Six And One Half Furlongs        G C Contessa        5/1#        Dirt

Let’s see how these do today at the Big A!!!

TheOracle 02-03-2018 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle (Post 2271252)
Contessa has these at Aqueduct today

Code:

RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface:
1    02-03-2018    1st race    3    American Road (KY)    Claiming    One Mile    G C Contessa    4/1#    Dirt
                                             
2    02-03-2018    2nd race    6    Theresas Boy (NY)    Maiden Claiming    Six Furlongs    G C Contessa    3/1#    Dirt
                                             
3    02-03-2018    5th race    3    Starlite Mission (NY)    Maiden Special Weight    Six Furlongs    G C Contessa    9/2#    Dirt
                                             
4    02-03-2018    6th race    7    Heat Check (NY)    Claiming    One Mile    G C Contessa    20/1#    Dirt
                                             
5    02-03-2018    7th race    5    Mighty Zealous (NY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    G C Contessa    5/1#    Dirt

Let’s see how these do today at the Big A!!!


Contessa's record since January 25th

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...sahitngbrd.png

He is giving you a 38% return per $2 win place and show wager he might be able to get one to pop for a nice price today at Aqueduct especially the way the Favorites have been running!!!

TheOracle 02-03-2018 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle (Post 2271252)
Contessa has these at Aqueduct today

Code:

RowNum:        Date:        Race:        PgmNum:        Horse:        RaceCond:        Distance:        Trainer:        Odds:        Surface:
1        02-03-2018        1st race        3        American Road (KY)        Claiming        One Mile        G C Contessa        4/1#        Dirt
                                                                                 
2        02-03-2018        2nd race        6        Theresas Boy (NY)        Maiden Claiming        Six Furlongs        G C Contessa        3/1#        Dirt
                                                                                 
3        02-03-2018        5th race        3        Starlite Mission (NY)        Maiden Special Weight        Six Furlongs        G C Contessa        9/2#        Dirt
                                                                                 
4        02-03-2018        6th race        7        Heat Check (NY)        Claiming        One Mile        G C Contessa        20/1#        Dirt
                                                                                 
5        02-03-2018        7th race        5        Mighty Zealous (NY)        Allowance Optional Claiming        Six And One Half Furlongs        G C Contessa        5/1#        Dirt

Let’s see how these do today at the Big A!!!


Contessa’s horses did absolutely nothing today

Code:

RowNum:        Date:        Race:        PgmNum:        Horse:        RaceCond:        Distance:        Trainer:        Odds:        TrackCond:        WinAmt:        PlaceAmt:        ShowAmt:
1        02-03-2018        1st race        3        American Road (KY)        Claiming        One Mile        G C Contessa        4/1#        Dirt Good        0.0        0.0        0.0
                                                                                 
2        02-03-2018        2nd race        6        Theresas Boy (NY)        Maiden Claiming        Six Furlongs        G C Contessa        3/1#        Dirt Good        0.0        0.0        2.2
                                                                                 
3        02-03-2018        5th race        3        Starlite Mission (NY)        Maiden Special Weight        Six Furlongs        G C Contessa        9/2#        Dirt Fast        0.0        0.0        0.0
                                                                                 
4        02-03-2018        6th race        7        Heat Check (NY)        Claiming        One Mile        G C Contessa        20/1#        Dirt Fast        0.0        0.0        0.0
                                                                                 
5        02-03-2018        7th race        5        Mighty Zealous (NY)        Allowance Optional Claiming        Six And One Half Furlongs        G C Contessa        5/1#        Dirt Fast        0.0        0.0        0.0

I was hoping one of these would pop for a price!!!


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